Rick Ackerman

The Dollar's impressive move off mid-July's 99.58 low will face a crucial test when it encounters the impediment shown in the chart, a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance at 106.32 that lies less than 1% above. I am predicting an easy move through it, bringing the realization that the inflationistas have had it wrong all along; for in plain fact, consumer inflation was never going to be a big deal in comparison to a deflationary juggernaut of financialized debt totaling more than $2 quadrillion. So many owe dollars that inflation -- or better yet, hyperinflation -- would be a blessing. And that's why it is not going to happen, if for no other reason than that everyone has piled onto the same side of the bet. Those still in denial will be in for a shock as DXY continues to rally toward the 113.06 target.  By then, there will be fewer dollar bears to muddy the picture, and the quacks who run the central bank, especially the hawks, will have their backs up against a wall.

Quotes rose sharply again last week, threatening consumers around the world with yet more bad news and higher prices for everything. If the October contract were to pop through the secondary Hidden Pivot at 90.99 where it came to rest on Friday, that would likely spell more upside to at least D=99.84 (with a possible 'local' stop at 93.72, using A=7.26 on the '60' from 8/29). It would also push the price of a gallon of regular gas toward $5 and quite a bit higher in California. It is fortunate that the stock market, Wall Street, pension funds, insurance companies, and private and public investors have gone full-on 'mental' at the moment, since any sane reflection on the economic implications of oil priced at $100/barrel would produce a panic out of stocks. It's coming anyway, but don't be surprised if investors awaken one morning to an avalanche of cognition that kicks off the bear market with unmistakable force. _______ UPDATE (Sep 19, 9:25 p.m.): The 'local stop' at 93.72 flagged above caught the top of a so-far $2.67 plunge within two pennies. No one mentioned it in the chat room, however, so I haven't established a tracking position. If anyone still trades this vehicle or even remotely cares about it, it is time once again to declare your interest in the chat room.

AAPL's big bounce in August may have added tens of billions of dollars to the macro ledger for a short while, but September's symmetrical decline has taken it all back. The stock still appears bound for D=164.90 of the pattern shown, equating to a 17% decline from the 198.23 high recorded in early July.  Since Apple shares have been an infallible bellwether for the stock market as a whole, we'll want to pay close attention to price action when 164.90 is hit, which it eventually will be.  If the Hidden Pivot support is decisively exceeded, it would imply more downside is possible to as low as 146.25, a Hidden Pivot support derived from shifting 'A' up to last August's 176.15 peak.

The futures came down hard enough on Friday to suggest there must have been an interesting reason, but the chart suggests it was just tiredness. In fact, if the December contract were to fall just a little further to the green line (x=4454.25), that would generate a weak 'mechanical' buy signal.  I would expect a profitable, one-level bounce, at least, but whether buyers could summon the additional power needed to achieve D=4623.75 remains to be seen, especially since our standby market bellwether AAPL could already be in a bear market. ______ UPDATE (Sep 18, 8:22 p.m.): The fraudsters who work this gaff have been so unimpressive lately that I'm cancelling the 'mechanical' bid at the green line, since it no longer promises an edge.

Gold is in an obligatory bounce from the green line (x=1934.00), and any long positions initiated there would be showing a paper profit of around $4400 on four contracts. The futures would need to hit p=1954.30 to signal a partial exit, but bulls looked sufficiently energized to accomplish this when trading resumes Sunday evening. I have my doubts that the run-up will reach D=1995.00, though, in part because the turn from the recent low looked too agonized. Regardless, 1995.00 is theoretically in play and would become an even better bet if the rally impales the midpoint Hidden Pivot on first contact. _______ UPDATE (Sep 18, 9:17 p.m.): The textbook 'mechanical' buy that triggered a week ago at x=1934.00 has gone on to produce an $8000 gain for anyone who did the trade. It is time to realize half of your profits now, since the futures this evening have touched the red line (p=1954.30) as anticipated. Here's the chart.  _______ UPDATE (Sep 20, 8:20 p.m.): The vicious bull-trap stab this morning to 1069 was short-lived, but it gave anyone still long an opportunity to exit with an additional $1800 for each contract still held. If you kept 25% of the original position for a swing at the fence, I'd suggest an 'impulsive' stop-loss at 1943.70 for now.

Silver finished the week on an upstroke, but the pattern that produced it may be too obvious to sustain the steep trajectory. The low occurred just a tick or two beneath mid-August's 22.58 bottom, implying the turnaround was just bulls and bears scaring themselves into action. That's nearly always good for a pop, since the former were stopped out and no longer on board to slow down the rally. The pattern should work for bottom-fishing a swoon to the green line (x=22.83) 'mechanically', but we won't be able to judge buyers' enthusiasm until such time as they interact with the 23.67 target of the rABC pattern. _______ UPDATE (Sep 20, 8:41 p.m.): Here's a mildly bullish chart to help you leverage Silver's churlishness.  Because today's nasty reversal did not quite reach the red line on the upswing, I cannot recommend a 'mechanical' buy if its fall hits the green line. 

GDXJ is all but certain to rally to at least 36.78, the D target of the pattern shown. Bulls clinched that outcome on Friday when they blew past the 35.52 midpoint resistance with a gap-up opening and never looked back. But what happens thereafter will tell us whether the rally is any different from umpteen previous rallies that ended in disappointment. An easy move through the target would suggest the uptrend is getting legs for a shot at significantly higher prices.  An uncorrected continuation that tops July's 38.09 peak would strongly suggest bulls have returned in force. _______ UPDATE (Sep 19, 10:20 p.m.):  If you missed boarding at the 9/7 low, this vehicle will become an opportune 'mechanical' buy if and when it gets down to x=34.60. I'd suggest buying stock (stop 33.86) or naked-shorting puts, but buy calls only if using a small-pattern (i.e., camouflage) trigger that can get you in near the exact low, time-wise.

Bulls appeared tapped out as the week ended, unable to fill the gap formed by Thursday's air pocket. To make matters worse, the stock settled just beneath the lower end of the gap range, implying the DaBoyz couldn't even mau-mau shorts into displaying a little fear. This will be problematic when index futures begin to trade Sunday evening, since the broad averages weren't exactly looking frisky either. Expect more slippage to the 164.90 target of the reverse pattern shown. Getting short is certain to be tricky, since everyone else will be trying to do it too.

The bullish pattern shown looks incapable of guile, so we don't have to stick out our necks very far to heap opprobrium on those who can't stop obsessing over 'inflation' and a dollar supposedly headed into BRIC-induced oblivion. As I will continue to point out, the last thing the world needs right now is a strong dollar, since it would increase the burden of debt for all who owe dollars. That is reason enough for DXY to keep on rising, since the mounting troubles of borrowers in and of itself will continue to exert mild short-squeeze pressure on the buck. Accordingly, we should expect the rally to continue to at least p=106.32 over the near term. When DXY pops thought that Hidden Pivot resistance, presumably headed for D=113.06, we'll see some erstwhile dollar bears start to break ranks. Recession will be full upon us by then, even if unheralded by mainstream news sources.