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I've referred to pandemic stimulus as 'dead money', and the latest statistics would seem to bear me out.  Far from pumping up the consumer economy,  quite a few of the trillions of digital dollars ginned up by the central bank are being used to retire credit card debt. Delinquencies and new borrowing have fallen very sharply, and credit card balances are being paid down as though there actually were a tomorrow. This is a shocking development in a nation whose GDP is 70% consumption. “It’s a good time to be debt-free,” said one erstwhile shopper quoted in the Wall Street Journal, “because soon I won’t have a career.”  True enough, statistically speaking. But the hardships of being jobless will be more easily borne by millions of Americans to the extent they are cushioned by generous checks from The Government. The handouts have in fact been so unstinting that two-thirds of those laid off due to the pandemic are eligible for benefits that exceed what they made working . Look Ma, No Taxes! Ordinarily, we might infer that it is deflationary for unemployment checks to be used to retire debt. But because no taxes have been levied to pay for the benefits, and because the benefits will decrease the burden of debt for millions of down-and-out workers, the net economic result is neither inflationary nor deflationary, at least for now. Factor in the bullish effect stimulus has had on the stock market, and inflation wins out, just as the Fed had intended. How long can the central bank continue to cancel gravity? It's impossible to say, although we do know that the felicitous effects of helicopter money cannot last indefinitely. We also know that every penny of it will have to be paid by someone at some point. Hyperinflation or deflation

AAPL's by-now ridiculous rally has laid bare the monstrous fraud that is Wall Street. Hard as it is to believe, there will be analysts out with reports in the days and weeks ahead purporting to show why the company's shares are still a decent value at these levels. What rubbish! As we know, the stock could be trading for $2,000 a share and these same shysters would still find reasons to own the stock.  With Friday's psychotic short squeeze, Apple surpassed Aramco as the most valuable company in the world, achieving a valuation of $1.8 trillion. And for what?  The Cupertino manufacturer gets most of its revenues from selling a pricey cell phone that in some ways remains inferior to phones made by Samsung and Huawei. It was only recently that Apple after 20 years finally solved battery-life issues that its cult buyers had long ago decided to live with for as long as they had to. Is the company's $1.8 trillion worth based on marginal improvements in the iPhone camera that are regularly touted as a reason to upgrade? Is the upgrade cycle itself perhaps vulnerable to the encroachment of a global depression? Such concerns will not have occurred to the fevered mob chasing Apple shares with no thought as to who will be the greater fools to make a profitable exit possible. Here's a tip:  If the stock  rallies a further 7% and hits the 456.19 target shown in the chart, you should take the money and run.

The mechanical buy triggered last Thursday lengthened our impressive winning streak, but also demonstrated that these trades are often scary. They are designed to exploit violent swings, and that is why placing one's bid at the green line often feels like trying to catch a falling piano. The theoretical gain on the trade so far would have been around $5500 per contract, with a shot now at an additional $11,000 per contract if the futures reach the D target at 26.975. That was the assumption at the time the trade triggered, although we typically take a profit on half of a four-contract position when it gets to the red line line. (The midpoint Hidden Pivot lies at 24.718 in this case, a millimeter above Friday's end-of-day high). Although the remaining $2.34 to be traversed cannot yet be considered a certainty, odds would shorten considerably on a decisive push past p, but even moreso on a two-day close above that resistance.  _______ UPDATE (Aug 4, 6:56 p.m.) The last $2 of Silver's ascent have come so easily that I've switched to a bigger picture with a 31.560 target. First the futures will need to reach p=27.010, my minimum upside objective, but a decisive stab through it, or a two day close above it, would put the 31.560 Hidden pivot well in play. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Aug 5, 5:28 p.m.): Bulls toyed with the 27.010 midpoint pivot as though it were a speed bag, implying they can easily take this vehicle higher when the feel like it. The next Hidden Pivot benchmark on the way to 31.560 is p2=29.285, so we'll make that our minimum upside objective for now. It seems likely to be reached by no later than Friday. ______ UPDATE (Aug 6, 10:39 p.m.): The futures came within 8

It's been a long slog to the 45.71 target since GDX tripped a 'buy' signal back in mid-June at 34.84. I crowd-sourced the trading of the stock because it became too much of a headache to do so myself, especially during the grinding, two-month consolidation begun in late April. In retrospect, the rally could have been positioned as a buy-and-hold, since the pullbacks that punctuated the steep July uptrend were not too painful in comparison to the gains racked up from one peak to the next.  We'll have to see what happens after 45.71 is achieved, but, as always, a decisive push past it on initial contact would be bullish. Regardless, if you've held a long position all the way up, I'd suggesting lightening up, possibly with some just-in-the-money covered writes. Above 45.71, the weekly chart allows for more progress to as high as 51.72. ______ UPDATE (Aug 5, 6:14 p.m.): Numerous subscribers reported using my longstanding rally target at 45.71 to exit long positions or lighten up within pennies of what could turn out to be an important top. They sidestepped considerable pain in the process, since GDX subsequently fell $1.76 to 44.02 before staging a modest bounce into the close.  I don't expect bulls to come roaring back, at least not right away, but if they do, use this 48.55 target as a lodestar, and thence 51.72 (as noted above).

Corleone, Barzini, Tattaglia, Cuneo, Stracci:  They were all on Capitol Hill Wednesday, feigning respect toward a Congressional panel that seems unlikely ever to earn anyone's respect. Tech's dons will return to their Left Coast aeries when it's over, secure in the knowledge that their inquisitors will never figure out exactly how Google, Amazon, Twitter, Facebook and AAPL make money, let alone how to bring the omnipotent corporate dirtballs who run those companies to heel. All act with increasing impunity, most recently by brazenly muffling conservative voices ahead of the presidential election. Bezos, zillionaire owner of the Washington Post, does it the old-fashioned way, with news stories and editorials that would have done Goebbels proud. The others claim to have no political bias.  "It's just algorithms," they are wont to testify, lying through their teeth every time they are summoned to Washington.  With only a few rare exceptions, even the Republicans are odiously obeisant. We long to hear just one of them tee up Zuckerberg and let fly: "Tattaglia's a pimp. He never could've out-fought Santino. But I didn't know until this day that it was Barzini all along." What a shocker it would be if someone on the Hill actually called a spade a spade. Let's not hold our breath waiting for The People's representatives to score a point.

A perfect 'mechanical' buy triggered in the final hour of Wednesday's session (see inset) when the futures spasmed violently for who-knows-what stupid reason. However, even if you had been expecting this, execution would have been difficult, requiring lightning reflexes and plenty of luck. In any event, the futures should now be presumed bound for the  26.975 target, at least, even if they have yet to reach the 24.718 midpoint pivot where taking a partial profit on half the position would be in order. _______ UPDATE (Jul 30, 2:32 p.m. ET): The futures  spent the day treading water, suspended midway between the 23.589 'mechanical' entry point and the theoretical stop-loss at 22.45.   I am unable to predict with any confidence how this tedious dirge will settle, but I'd become a buyer again below the stop.

August Gold's leap Monday night missed a longstanding target at 1992.40 by $18, which ordinarily would warrant a cautious stance for at least a few days. In this case, however, the recovery following an overnight sell-off has been so quick and effortless that a lasting push above $2000 seems all but assured. The modest, 2006.20 target shown in the chart is one of several I could have displayed, but it will suffice for now as a minimum upside objective.  I'll haul out some bigger charts with more  ambitious targets once gold looks like it has found solid footing above $2000. ______ UPDATE (Jul 30, 2:35 p.m. ET): Today's snoozefest did not alter the bullish picture for the near-to-intermediate term.

Although Silver's explosive rally over the last few days has nearly maxed out the hourly chart, bulls have reason to celebrate. As you can see, the rally exceeded a key external peak at 25.120 recorded seven years ago during the summer of 2013. The move has generated the most powerful impulse leg this vehicle has seen in nearly a decade, and it implies that any significant pullback in the weeks and months ahead be regarded as a buying opportunity. Stay tuned to the chat room, since we finally have a trend we can trade aggressively. ______ UPDATE (Jul 28, 5:06 p.m. ET): The violent price swings we saw today ended with the futures idling placidly in the exact middle of the range.  This is peculiar though hardly bearish, since it suggests that even after getting viciously trapped at Monday night's highs, bulls were back at it hours later, chastened but not the least bit fearful. Let's step aside for a day and see how it goes. When the old high gives way, look for further upside to a marginal new high, at least, at 26.56 (60-min, A=22.175 on 7/22). Evening note: night owls can try bottom-fishing at 22.888 off this pattern on the 60-min: a=26.275; b= 22.46; c= 24.795 ( 7/28 at 11:00 a.m. ET)

The dollar's steep fall since March mirrors the egregiously overdone rally that has occurred in nearly everything else. There is no good reason for the dollar to be plummeting, but on Wall Street a bad reason will always suffice, especially in times when outright insanity rules the markets as it is doing now. That said, there are reasons to expect a turn from the current low, which touched a 93.57 downside target on the hourly chart Monday. I'd be surprised if there's no significant bounce, given the clarity of the pattern, However, I am prepared for more slippage nonetheless, possibly to the trendline shown. It comes in around 91.61, almost exactly two points lower. Here's a chart that shows this. Regardless, the pullback to the green line (94.48) must be regarded as a promising 'mechanical' buying opportunity, stop 88.24.  We'll paper trade this one, but I should note that all such trades presented here over the last several months have been winners. ______ UPDATE (Jul 29, 7:37 p.m.): Any further slippage beneath the 93.57  'hidden' support will send the dollar down to 91.61 in search of good traction. ______ UPDATE (Jul 30, 2:39 p.m.): So much for the 93.54 support. You should use 91.61 as a downside objective for the near term. _______ UPDATE (Aug 3, 5:48 p.m.): Despite the rally since Friday, the damage has already been done, and I still expect lower lows. Regardless, I'm going to back away for a week or two, since price action in the currencies in general has gotten extremely tiresome. They used to be good 'non-correlating' vehicles to trade, but these days even the 100% manipulated Swiss franc acts like an eighth  grader's science project.