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This week's 900-point selloff is technically very similar to the 1000-pointer that occurred between February 25 and March 11. Both exceeded two prior lows on the daily chart, generating bearish 'impulse legs' in the process. Now, even if the Dow should recover much or most of it in the days ahead, it would not change the troubling fact that two diving feints occurred within such a short time span. This is akin to that ominous cough in the second reel of a Hollywood melodrama. The bull's vital signs are failing, and, for a score of reasons that I've written about here,  it seems an unlikely time for stocks to get second wind. Even so, I will continue to stick closely to big-picture technicals that, at least theoretically, still give the bull plenty of room to run. The picture would change dramatically for the worse, however, if the Indoos were to fall a further 757 points, or 2.91%, exceeding 25,208 to the downside. A corresponding drop for the S&P 500 Index would be 163 points, or  5.65%. As for the Nasdaq (QQQ), still trading near last autumn's record highs, a 17-point drop to 169, or 9.1%, would likely be the death knell for the aging bull.

Shades of Smoot-Hawley!? Stocks plummeted for the second time in less than 24 hours Monday when Trump signaled to China's trade negotiators that he means business. A long-delayed, $200 billion hike in tariffs will take effect on Friday because the Chinese reneged on commitments they'd already made. I don't say they allegedly reneged or that they reportedly reneged, since no one ever believed for a minute that the scumbags were interested in giving the U.S. an honest deal. Why should they want to play fair when their goal is to cultivate trade with Europe, Asia and the rest of the world at America's expense? It will simply take them longer now, since, besides raising levies, Trump will take strident measures to thwart China's epic theft of intellectual property, and push back more aggressively against Beijing's generous subsidies to key industries. Wall Street did not take the news well, and for good reason: Americans will pay a steep price as the trade war with China escalates as seems all but certain. The Dow fell nearly 600 points when the initial story broke Sunday night that talks had broken down.  Traders spent Monday's session clawing most of it back with the crucial help of stalwart short-covering. But after the close, the trade story took a turn for the worst when it was announced that new tariffs would actually be implemented by week's end. Dow index futures dropped 200 points in a blink -- a loss that will be more difficult to recoup a second time because the negotiations are now obviously kaput. Watch 'Em Work! Even so, don't expect the fund managers to simply throw in the towel. They still control a vast sea of Other People's Money that has few places to go other than into U.S. stocks. Ten years of

Fever took hold of the stock market as the week ended, stoked by the best unemployment numbers in half a century. Two days earlier, shares had fallen sharply as investors registered their disappointment in the Fed's latest pronouncement. Obfuscator-in-chief Powell had said the central bank would hold steady and that the economy seemed in fine shape. But the markets reacted as though they were hoping for just enough bad news to push monetary policy toward easing. No matter. By Friday, the virtues of an actual strong economy won out over hopes for a weakening economy deserving of stimulus. The buying spree we saw in celebration of this newfound contentment seemed likely to accelerate in the week ahead. A key feature of the melt-up since January has been the steady rise of some FAANG stocks beset by troubling news. Boeing is enmeshed in a deepening scandal related to the fatal crash of two 737 Max aircraft. But however disconcerting the news on a given day, the stock has either risen or remained buoyant (click on chart inset). Apple's iPhone sales have been weakening, but that hasn't inhibited the stock's wilding spree. And Facebook, taking regulatory flak every time Zuckerberg speaks, has soared on news of a broad but unimpressive change in the company's business model. Finally there is Google, which plummeted 10% last week on news that they are losing ground in advertising to Facebook and Amazon. The selloff seemed certain to mutate into a routine shakedown, however, and before the week ended, Google shares appeared once again to be firmly in the grip of the weasels who manipulate them, always with an eye toward new-record highs. A Millennial Peak Scanning the business pages, the overall impression is that the U.S. economy has never been stronger and that nothing could possibly

Dollar bears seem to be everywhere these days, so perhaps it's a good time to revisit the longer-term charts, which remain bullish. Notice that each visually significant upthrust in the Dollar Index exceeded an external peak. This has serially refreshed the bullishness of the chart while implying that any bout of weakness is merely corrective.  However, a key resistance lies not far above in the form of a 100.71 midpoint Hidden Pivot. Although this number can be used as a minimum upside target for now, DXY would need to push decisively above it, to perhaps 103 or higher, before we could infer that the 113.16 'D' target is solidly in play. At that point, p2=106.93 could be used as a minimum upside objective. In an earlier DXY tout, I provided a long-term view as well as a detailed explanation of why I think the dollar is ultimately headed much higher. (Note: DXY represents a basket of currencies that is 60% weighted toward the euro.)  An extremely strong dollar would be congruent with the global deflationary collapse that I believe is necessary to correct millennial excesses of debt in the financial system. I see this as unavoidable. For my essay on the coming debt deflation, click here.

Sometimes we're blessed not to possess insider information. Several pointed examples surfaced in the last few days. If we had known, for instance, that Fed Chairman Powell would tell the world on Wednesday that the U.S. economy is holding steady as a rock and that no changes are contemplated in monetary policy, we'd have jumped on call options a day earlier. Lo, the Dow began a 500-point plunge the moment he began to speak, turning our would-be call options into dross. Go figure. And then there was Yeti, a terrific young company based in Austin, TX, that makes some of the best cooler chests and thermoses we've ever owned. On Thursday they announced their first profitable quarter, reflecting a swing from $3.3 million in losses a year ago to a $2.2 million profit in Q1. The results beat analysts forecasts, and yet the stock got sacked, down nearly 10% intraday and fully 18% from a 36.60 peak recorded earlier in the week. Can you imagine how you might have reacted if someone had whispered in your ear a week ago that Yeti was going to report its best quarter ever.  The May 35 calls were trading for around 2.50 at the time and would have seemed an easy bet to double. Instead, they lost more than 99% of their value, trading down to 0.02 before day's end. TSLA Rallies, But Why? Finally there was Tesla, which announced it would try to raise $2.3 billion by selling stocks and bonds. Founder Musk had insisted earlier that money-raising would not be necessary, but he changed his tune after the company reported one of its worst quarterly losses in history. Sell the stock short just ahead of the news? Not on your life. The stock was up as much as $16 on Thursday,

Stocks dove on the latest non-news from the Fed. The headless-chicken response to routine announcements from the central bank is evidently so deeply ingrained that even when Powell has nothing new to say, the trade-desk geniuses can't help tripping over themselves trying to get out of their own way. The Fed chairman said monetary policy, such as it is, will hold steady for the time being, since inflation is low and the economy appears to be slowing slightly.  This revelation not only caused stocks to plunge, it also aborted a rally in gold that, gold being gold, was probably doomed anyway. Look for cooler heads to prevail on Thursday, after the usual gallimaufry of jackasses have gotten a grip on themselves.

Google has joined my list of 'dead stocks walking' -- companies facing revenue slowdowns for one reason or another but which have inexplicably rallied steeply in recent months.  The shares of Apple and Facebook are brazen standouts in this category for reasons that are well known and which I have written about extensively. There is also Boeing, whose price has steadied well aloft despite the widening scandal related to two fatal crashes of the 737 Max. None of this precludes my forecasting higher prices based on the stocks' respective charts, but it does imply there will be a day of reckoning. Please note that my technical outlook allows nonetheless for a further 1400-point rise in the Dow before this happens, an eventuality that would demonstrate once again the bull market's determination to remain blithely untethered from economic reality.

Surprise, surprise. AAPL has miraculously popped to 213.00 this evening, exceeding by 13 cents a 212.77 target first noted here weeks ago. This Hidden Pivot has been in play since April 1, when the stock was trading for around 190. Like virtually all significant rallies in the stock, and in most others, the move was driven almost entirely by short covering on volume-less, after-hours trading. Panicky, dim-witted bears are the best thing AAPL's institutional handlers have going for them, accomplishing in mere minutes what mere bullish buying could not have accomplished in months. The wilding spree of the last seven weeks has also helped to obliterate any concerns about iPhone's pronounced sales slowdown in the U.S. and in China, Apple's second largest market. Nor do investors seem concerned that the company's answer to weakening sales is to plunge deeper into the hyper-competitive entertainment world with streaming content. Profit margins from this business are unlikely to equal those achieved selling overpriced iPhones -- but again, who cares? We'll back away from the stock for now, since the put options we might have bought if the stock had reached the target during regular business hours won't begin to trade until morning, when the surprise has worn off. _______ UPDATE (May 1, 9:40 p.m.): Today's thrust above an 'external peak at 210 recorded last November has created yet another impulse leg, refreshing the bullish energy of the daily chart. This implies that any pullback of less than $25 should be seen as corrective and thus a buying opportunity for a shot at new record highs. _______UPDATE (May 8, 8:49 p.m.): AAPL looks bound for 197.12, a target shown in this chart. It is appealing despite the lack of a true impulse leg. Please note that a print slightly below the target, at 196.20,

Google was down a hellacious 112 points, or 9%, at Tuesday's low, but the plunge did little damage to the bullish look of the weekly chart (click on inset).  The fact that this occurred after the stock had pushed above last July's record high makes the selloff merely corrective rather than impulsive. It was attributable to a dour earnings report which suggested Google is losing ground in advertising to Amazon and Facebook. From the look of the chart, however, it seems predictable that the company will find a way to cope and get back in the race. Another thing to be inferred from the stock's steep dive is that it was engineered by the same institutional wiseguys who have been buying it all along. They've created for themselves a fire-sale opportunity, and we should therefore look for GOOG to stabilize, presumably at somewhat lower levels, before the accumulation cycle begins anew.  Alternatively, the stock would need to fall a further 290 points (!), or 25%, exceeding the 894 'external' low recorded last June, to turn the weekly chart bearish.  This seems unlikely, even after today's heavy losses. _______ UPDATE (May 8, 8:58 p.m. ET): With GOOG struggling for altitude, I'll note that any slippage could send the stock down to at least 1123.71, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in this chart. It is associated with a 'D' target at 1056.68. _______ UPDATE (May 13, 2:33 p.m.): The stock has bounced $12 so far after bottoming at 1122.11, an inch below my minimum downside target. If a relapse crushes the target, that would imply more slippage to as low as D=1056.68._______ UPDATE (May 16, 4:14 p.m.): Bears have gotten squeezed hard for two straight days, but the pressure appears to have eased slightly with a close in the middle of