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Maybe. Yeah, right. A headline here just two weeks ago implied that stocks were about to go bananas: Why a Permabear Is Certain We're Going Much Higher.  Hubris aside, this was based on the very bullish chart of just one stock, Chipotle (CMG). It had just crossed the $2,000 threshold and appeared -- still appears -- bound for a rendezvous with a Hidden Pivot target at $2,739 that lies $600 above Friday's close. Some might question the logic of using a projection for a single stock to make a prediction about the stock market as a whole. I am confident that my method, more intuitive than factual, will prove superior to the benighted, self-serving blather coming from the likes of Jim Cramer, various talking heads on the financial news shows, and from Wall Street shills who get paid by the word to tell us why we should be bullish. These mongers of gladness will always try to connect the stock market's performance with supposedly objective facts tied to the economy and corporate earnings. Unfortunately, and has been demonstrated time and again, this is like trying to predict the behavior of a sea snake by analyzing the contents of the ocean. And in case you haven't noticed, the "facts" that the talking heads cite unrelentingly are used almost solely for one purpose: to justify buying stocks at any price, no matter how grim the economic outlook. (And it is indeed grim, with little doubt that a collapse in commercial real estate is imminent, accompanied by a potentially catastrophic wave of bank failures.) Vaporous 'Wealth' None of which argues that stocks cannot continue to climb heedlessly. It's not as though it takes bullish buying or even real money to make this happen. To the contrary, most of the big rallies occur on

Let's not waste too much time pondering what this sad sack of tailings is going to do next, since it hasn't done much of anything for more than a month. That's if you don't count the meaningless spasms that occur whenever the latest drivel from the Fed hits the tape.  The futures will always be tradeable, of course, but only with the kind of close attention that's hard to muster with America in pre-holiday mode ahead of a three-day Memorial Day weekend that is just two weeks off. The work ethic, and all. I'll mention in passing that the June contract has triggered two profitable 'mechanical' shorts since the bear rally began in October, each producing a $12,000 win per contract. Considering the amount of time traders spent screwing the pooch in the process, that worked out to around $3.57 per hour. If ES falls anew to the red line, however, racking up a third 'mechanical' winner, I'll shift my focus to the 3424.50 downside target of the big pattern, shown here.

Last week's plunge precisely to the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 23.95, has validated the pattern and its 21.46 target. This is not necessarily as bearish as it sounds, since the futures will need to exceed p decisively, then close beneath it for at least two consecutive days, to imply they are bound for p2=22.704.  For now , however, they would become a spec buy using an rABC trigger, since the midpoint pivot is always a logical place for a price reversal. Please nudge me in the chat room at the appropriate time if you are interested. ______ UPDATE (May 16, 6:13 p.m.): Sinking, soon to drop off the edge.

[Editor's note: The following commentary draws parallels between today’s bond market environment and the last great bear market in bonds, which bottomed in 1981. It went out last month to clients of my friend Doug Behnfield, a financial advisor and senior vice president at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management in Boulder. Long-time followers of Rick's Picks will be familiar with Doug's unconventional thoughts on the markets, since they have been featured here many times before. I have always referred to him not only as the smartest investor I know, but one of the smartest guys. I am grateful to him for allowing me to share his insights with you. The charts are my own, since they reproduced better than the ones that accompanied Doug's letter. Also, the photo of the annual Pamplona stampede is an emphatic touch of my own, since I share Doug's very contrarian bullishness on Treasury debt. RA ] Lately, I have been telling the story of my experience leading up to the all-time high in long-term Treasury bond rates that occurred in late 1981. I was kind of a rookie, having started at Merrill Lynch in late 1977 (at age 22). 30-year Treasury bond yields peaked at 15.25% in September 1981 and by then, 6-month CDs were paying 18.5% and the yield on the Merrill Lynch Ready Assets Trust money market fund was pushing 20%. Bond yields had rocketed from 10% to 15% over about 15 months so 30-year Treasury bond prices were down 35% compared to mid-1980. The reason rates got so high was attributable to steeply rising inflation and determined rate hikes by the Volcker Fed to put a stop to it. Back then CPI inflation had reached almost 14%. It was driven mostly by demand coming from an army of emerging Baby Boomers forming

AAPL is a major contributor to the doomed 'wealth effect' that has kept the world from falling into a deflationary abyss since the covid hoax. Friday's wilding spree was a classic example, since the stock's gap-up opening generated around $70 billion of gaseous 'wealth'  the instant the regular session began. It seems  ridiculous with the U.S. facing a real estate collapse later this year or early next, but the chart of the world's most valuable stock has been pointing to at least 177.11 since early March. AAPL was trading 30 points lower at the time, a fire-sale bargain as far as the Big Boys were concerned. Its relentless rise  since, along with that of Chipotle, implies that a bear market is not coming any time soon. Moreover, Chipotle's rally target at 2739, 700 points above where it is currently trading, suggests it and AAPL will continue to tag-team higher after the latter finishes consolidating for its impending thrust to 177.11. _______ UPDATE (May 19, 11:36 a.m.): I just now realized that if a very subtle one-off A is used to project a top for AAPL, today's high at 176.39 came within 13 cents of fulfilling it. The 177.11 target we've been using all along represented a theoretical maximum for the move, but the stock could still fall 72 cents shy of it if it fulfills the one-off target at 176.52. I prefer to get it very exactly right on option trades, but it would be a shame to miss out on putties for want of another 72 cents of upside on a move that has taken months to play out. Here's the chart, but I will take a look at put prices and see if there is something appealing that I can recommend. (Check the chat room for my recommendation).

The chart shown, with a downside target at 56.90, is one of the few I've presented here that actually might not be good enough for government work. The A-B impulse leg is one that only a mother could love, since its 'B' bottom surpassed no distinctive prior low.  On the other hand, no fewer than three kamikaze dives have reversed almost precisely from p and p2 Hidden Pivots. Regardless, the theme I have sounded here for nearly a month -- that the Saudi cutbacks amounted to a toothless threat -- has helped keep us on the right side of a downtrend that evidently knows a global recession when it sees one.

Yes, it's a bull market, but not one that has been much fun. My current rally target is 2138.30, just 134 points above Friday's settlement price. Riding this bee-stung Brahma became particularly unpleasant last week when a vicious spike up to 2085 on Wednesday reversed precipitously to finish the week just slightly above where it began. For the record, the dive on Friday triggered a 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x=2020.30), stop 1980. The usual caveats apply. ______ UPDATE (May 12): The 'mechanical' trade was worth as much as $3,600 per contract, although it generated little buzz in the chat room. The 2138,30 rally target remains viable.

Silver loves to tease traders by tiptoeing up to old highs and lows, then reversing with sadistic brutality. You'd think the victims would have caught on by now, but if and when they do, the gremlins that animate this vehicle will have moved on to a different, equally nasty game. For all its histrionics, the ABCD pattern that has informed our bullishness for the last two weeks remained intact along with its 27.150 rally target. The futures already tripped a profitable 'mechanical' buy on a pullback a week ago to the green line, and it would trip another if it takes out Friday's low at the beginning of the week. That would amount to sloppy seconds, though, and so I will offer no guarantees.

GDXJ triggered a 'mechanical' buy last week that got nowhere near the bids I'd suggested. Actually, the swoon didn't even trip a 'conventional' buy, since the week's low missed touching the red line by six cents (see chart inset). We may have to take what we can get if we're going to be on board for the finishing stroke to the 45.56 Hidden Pivot target shown.  I didn't mention it here explicitly last week (although it was shown in the chart), but it has been our lodestone since mid-March and never in doubt.