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Although TLT's downtrend reversed last week from very near the 101.33 Hidden Pivot where we'd expected it, I doubt that this will mark sellers' final gasp. It would take a rally exceeding the 104.83 'external' peak recorded on Valentine's Day to bring some bullish energy to the chart. However, my hunch is that a test of structural support around 99.40, where a double bottom was carved out in the final days of 2022, is more likely.

The Dollar Index made modest progress last week toward a 108.01 rally target we've been using as an upside objective for the intermediate term. It should take 5-7 weeks to reach this number, assuming it is achieved at all. That is by no means assured, however. Until such time as DXY pushes decisively past the p=104.46 midpoint Hidden Pivot where it stalled last week, I cannot offer you a high-confidence forecast. More immediately, bulls will need to breach the 105.31 'external' peak recorded on January 6 to demonstrate their staying power. _______ UPDATE (Feb 25): The Dollar Index exceeded the 105.31 peak noted above by a penny on Friday. That's as significant technically as $2 overshoot, and it implies DXY will continue toward the 108.01 target. Gold will of course remain under pressure.

Only on Wall Street is fake news celebrated with such shameless hubris as we've seen lately. In the last few weeks, flouting a torrent of lousy earnings reports, investors have gorged themselves on stocks.  This resurgence, doomed by recession and a grim outlook for earnings, was strongly supported by fake, or at least meaningless, employment data showing strong payroll growth. Never mind that most of the newly re-employed were waitresses, shoe store clerks and cruise-ship saxophonists who got laid off during the pandemic. Now they'll be able to pay the rent again with their own money rather than with taxpayer handouts -- a modest gain that economists, Biden and his remaining few stalwarts would herald as evidence of boom times. Let's not dwell in the meantime on the fact that high-paying tech jobs have been shrinking at a disturbing rate -- by 32,000 in just the last month. None of this was even faintly on Biden's mind, such as it is, when he served up a State of the Union address last week telling us why it is once again Morning in America. In reality, U.S. data alleging 3% GDP growth in the last two quarters conflicts sharply with widespread perceptions that the economy remains mired in a recession begun early last year. The eggheads are so deeply in denial about this that they have returned to laughable speculation about whether America can 'avoid' recession. Signs of Decline But no matter how many jobs are added, and however inflated the stock market and real estate become, the things that determine our standard of living will continue to erode or disappear, just as they've been doing since the 1970s. Who doubts, for one, that the day is coming when the last department store closes its doors, leaving us to do most

TLT took a $2.20 bounce from with six cents of the 104.45 target flagged here for bottom-fishing, but the rally was short-lived. The relapse has further to go and looks likely to achieve the 101.66 downside 'D' target shown in the chart (inset).  A pause at p2=102.90 could occur, but the way sellers crushed the 104.14 midpoint support, the respite is unlikely to be tradeable. Bottom-fishing precisely at 101.66 doesn't look promising either, since the herd will be nervously focused on the nearby low at 101.78 recorded on Jan 5. ______ UPDATE (Feb 16, 8:26 p.m.): A minor Hidden Pivot support at 101.33 has precisely contained the latest plunge of this sack of lug nuts, but it remains to be seen whether it has terminated it.

AAPL appears hellbent on reaching the top of a channel that has contained its huge ups and downs for more than a year. If the stock gets there within the next two weeks, the line's presumptive stopping power would be felt at around 168. It's reasonable to ask whether the rally is capable of reaching the line, but any progress above it would seem as unlikely as the emergence of a booming global economy from a debt contraction that has only recently begun. We shouldn't assume that this is impossible, but neither should we pass up the several opportunities to get short nearly risklessly that would occur as the stock ascends toward the channel line. _____ UPDATE (Feb 15, 8:30 p.m.): Here's a speculation for Thursday if you've got money burning a hole in your pocket: Buy two expiring AAPL 155 puts if the stock touches 156.30 before 11:00 a.m. ET.  I estimate they'll be trading for around 0.73. Stop yourself out if AAPL exceeds 157.38. ______ UPDATE (Feb 16, 8:51 p.m.): The stock touched 156.33 and then crashed, sending Feb 155 puts that could have been bought for as little as 0.53 to 1.90 in less than two hours. All of this happened after 2:20 p.m., when, as I'd anticipated, I was too busy to provide timely guidance. That's why I suggested an 11:00 a.m. cutoff for the trade. Fortunately, some subscribers who ignored the clock and acted on my recommendation (see above) above were rewarded with windfall profits by day's end. Here's a graph of AAPL's delightful plunge -- doubtless a surprise to everyone but us.

The 1858.60 downside target of the reverse pattern shown is probably the best we can hope for, given the way bullion's personal Darth Vader crushed gold on Friday for no great reason. (Okay, it was getting a tad overbought, all right?) You can bottom-fish there with a tightly stopped 'camo' trigger crafted from the 5-minute chart, but if the trade gets stopped out be ready for more slippage to at least 1824.70 or even 1774.50 if any lower. Those Hidden Pivot supports are derived from a larger reverse pattern using A=1848.40 on 8/12. _______ UPDATE (Feb 14, 4:03 p.m.): Although I still expect the April contract to continue falling to at least p2=1824.70,  or possibly to 1774.50 (see above), today's bounce from the D target of a smaller pattern raises the possibility that a bottom is in. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Feb 17, 8:55 a.m. ET): The overnight low came within $3 of the touted minimum downside target of 1824.70 -- close enough be considered fulfilled. A further drop to my worst-case number, 1774.50, is NOT a foregone conclusion, as the tout implies, although it would be if the futures relapse and crush p2=1824.70. However, a relapse could conceivably do no worse than bring the April contract down to a low that would more precisely fulfill the forecast. For my own trading purposes, the $3 gap is sufficient to negate rABC bottom-fishing, at least for the moment.

It is concerning that, before it fell apart, March Silver did not quite reach our longstanding target at 24.95, nor one at 25.06 that would have completed the somewhat larger pattern shown (inset).  Even so, the futures would be an enticing 'mechanical' buy nonetheless at x=21.85, stop 20.89, for a one-level ride, at least. The implied entry risk on four contracts would be a little more than $21,000, so this trade should be attempted only with a 'camo' trigger capable of bringing that down to perhaps $1,200 or less. _____ UPDATE (Feb 10);  The futures bottomed on Friday two pennies below 21.85, the number flagged above. Although they subsequently rallied 37 cents, there was no indication that anyone did the trade, let alone took the partial profit that was possible before the trend reversed. No further recommendations for now.

Last week's hellish dive has brought GDXJ within easy distance of the green line (x=36.30) where I'd suggested bottom-fishing. Like many of the best 'mechanical' trades, this one should have you feeling queasy in the wake of such a determined selloff.  This pattern implies it will be short-lived, since there is no mistaking its attractiveness. A stop-loss at 33.88, just below 'C', would risk nearly $1,000 on four round lots, but we'll look to cut that down to size with 'camouflage' when GDXJ triggers the trade by touching  x.  If you're interested, stay close to the chat room discussion when it gets closer. ______ UPDATE (Feb 9, 4:15 p.m.): The scary trade is now 'live', at least in theory. However, because a few minor supports have been stopped out, I'd suggest paper-trading this one. If the trade doesn't work, I would infer it's because the point 'B' high of the relevant pattern was not impulsive -- i.e., it narrowly failed to surpass the June 16 'external' peak at 37.81. In addition, the subsequent C-D leg failed at p2=41.11, well shy of another important 'external' peak at 42.19. All of this is shown in this chart.

March Crude has been taking its sweet time falling to the 58.84 target shown in the chart. We're all rooting for it to get there, and soon, since it would be churlish to wish instead for oil-company executives to do the right thing by committing seppuku. They've been reporting record profits that dwarf any achieved in the past, and this is surely starting to grate on all of us.  The patterns shown in the chart (inset) seems likely to work, since it has already triggered two 'mechanical' shorts at the green line that paid off in a big way. ______ UPDATE (Feb 10):  Someone please wake me if crude jitterbugs its way above the 83.14 'external' peak, creating the first interesting impulse leg since mid-October.  That'd be just what America needs right now: a return to $5 gas.