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Last week's high fell almost precisely at the 'D' target of a middling rABC pattern, presumably maxing out the upside for the moment, and that is why we can use the bearish pattern shown to get a handle on this vehicle in the week ahead despite its obviousness and plain-vanillaness. Most immediately, that would imply bottom-fishing at p=4227.38 as a tightly stopped scalp-trade, and subsequently shorting at the green line (x), assuming it's hit via the right kind of bounce. For now, use 4227.38 as a minimum downside target for the near term. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 9:49 a.m. EST): It is unusual and mildly disconcerting for a perfectly located, 4227.38 midpoint support to have failed to gift us with a bottom-fishing trade. The futures fell to within an inch of the trigger price, then bounced sharply. The HP Method 'textbook ' provides two possible explanations: 1) the droolers and algos have finally begun to recognize the usefulness of this key HP level; or, 2) buying power is waxing and was too strong to allow a correction to reach p. I lean toward the latter interpretation, but without necessarily having it negate the former. The implication is that this rally will at least exceed C=4418.75. Here's the chart. [Further update, 10:40 a.m.: The bounce reached the green line (x=4323.06), but it did not qualify as a ‘mechanical’ short, since the bounce was coming off a low that had failed to touch p.] ______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 7:40 p.m.): Considering what's going on in the world, sellers looked most unimpressive as they batted down the futures a measly 146 points. When they come to their senses, look for the S&Ps to fall 400-600 points in a day, an event that would be commensurate with the excesses that have preceeded it. In the meantime,

Buyers didn't exactly obliterate the 1944.20 midpoint resistance on their first attempt to get past it last week, but the futures subsequently appeared to pick up strength when they failed to pull back to the green line (x=1911.40) to gift us with a 'mechanical' long. The implication is that the futures are bound for D=2009.75 and all but certain to achieve it.  A pullback to p=1944.20 first would trigger a 'mechanical' buy with a stop-loss at 1922.30. We can cut the risk down to size in real time, so be sure to tune to the chat room for further guidance when the futures get close to the target. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 9:54 a.m. EST): Gold has topped overnight (when else?) a tenth of a percent from the $2009.75 target flagged above. Using the visual technique I detailed in the chat room last week, this was close enough to have set up a low-risk, reverse-pattern short or a precise exit from a long. Anyone do the trade? In any event, here's the chart.  The so-far low of the reversal is 1964.20, a $43 drop from the high. _____ UPDATE (Mar 8, 8:52 a.m.): Ya gotta love the way gold thumbed its nose at the very-round-number resistance, $2000! The next Hidden Pivot resistance lies at 2034.80 within a pattern on the daily chart that dates back to A= 1821.10 (2/11). It will max out at 2066.60 (A=1788.50 on 2/3). _______ UPDATE (Mar 8, 10:42 p.m.): How nice to see gold acting like a FAANG stock!  I've used the highly unconventional pattern shown in this chart to project minimum upside over the near term to 2099.70.  _______ UPDATE (Mar 9, 7:23 a.m.): I've 'discovered' a new pattern that should have been more obvious to me initially and which somewhat changes my outlook for the near

Silver spent a couple of days last week building a base for an easy move to the 26.46 target shown. It has kept us confidently on the right side of the trend, even if the pattern from which it was derived yielded no opportune 'mechanical' buying opportunities on the hourly chart. The target can be shorted if you've made some bucks on the way up, but we should be more interested in how bulls handle the implied 'hidden' supply there. As always, a decisive move past 'D', particularly on first contact, would imply the trend is likely to continue. In the meantime, a pullback to the red line would trip an appealing 'mechanical' buy, stop 24.74. We'll deal with risk-cutting if and when the requisite pullback occurs. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 10:01 a.m. EST): The futures topped overnight (suh-prize, suh-prize!) three tenths of a percent from the target flagged above, exhausting tradeable opportunities for the moment. Let's see how long it takes for bulls to reverse the correction and shred past the inconveniently timed high. _______ UPDATE (Mar 8, 8:54 p.m.): Not long at all, as it happens. You can use 27.54 as a minimum upside projection now, calculated by sliding 'A' down to Feb 3's 22.05 low. _______ UPDATE (Mar 8, 10:52 p.m.):  The 'reverse' pattern shown in this chart gives silver an easy path to at least 29.75, but there are bigger conventional patterns that project even higher. A pullback to the green line (x=23.49), however unlikely, would trigger a juicy 'mechanical' buy. _______ UPDATE (Mar 9, 9:48 p.m.): Note to a chat-room denizen posted this evening:  "Artie, are you or anyone else following Silver? The May futures fell nearly $2 after coming within a nickel of the 27.54 target flagged above, but no one seems to have noticed. I'd like

April Crude's ascent seems all but certain to continue to at least 117.82, the target shown in the chart, but if this Hidden Pivot resistance fails to slow down buyers, look for a further rally to at least 122.30, the target of a larger pattern (A= 95.29 on 2/28). Chat-room interest in this vehicle has been low, but if I see an exceptional 'camouflage' or 'mechanical' buying opportunity developing intraday, I will nonetheless signal it and send out an email 'Notification'. This is a new Rick's Picks service that has produced some winners for subscribers who are not able to monitor the chat room closely. ______ UPDATE (Mar 6, 10:09 p.m. EST): The odd but entirely legitimate pattern shown maxes out immediate rally possibilities for April Crude with a 141.34 target. Judging from the way buyers crushed the midpoint resistance, the target is all but certain to be achieved eventually. A short there looks promising, but I am suggesting this only to those of you who have made money on the way up or who know how to cut entry risk to relative pocket change with a 'camo' trade set-up. The 141.34 objective is not guaranteed to be precisely accurate, since the coordinates are based on a composite chart. ______ UPDATE Mar 22 7:08 p.m.): This chart shows that today's short squeeze tripped a theoretical buy signal at x=109.73 for a possible shot at 158.34. The 125.94 midpoint pivot can serve as a minimum upside projection for now, however. The pattern is radically different from the one proffered initially, a blended contract with a 141.34 destination. I have not offered a fresh tout with the new chart because WordPress would have put it at the top of the touts list. If subscriber interest in crude revives, though, I will step up

The strong leap that ended the week produced some instant quadruplers for subscribers who bought expiring at-the-money call options when TLT got bludgeoned down to the green line on Wednesday. This provided a textbook buying set-up for a 'mechanical' trade that, by its nature, will tend to scare the hell out of traders who act on the signal. The power of the bounce, in addition to the subsequent consolidation above p=139.32, have shortened the odds that the move will continue to at least 145.13, the 'D' rally target of the pattern shown. An easy move through it would be quite bullish. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 8:07 p.m. EST): If the pullback continues to the green line, it would trip an enticing 'mechanical' buy there, stop 134.50.  Ask me in the chat room if you need more guidance to pare the risk. _______ UPDATE (Mar 8, 10:58 p.m. EST): Cancel the 'mechanical' bid, since we've seen a weak rally from just above it.  If TLT relapses to x, it seems likely to exceed it. _____ UPDATE (Mar 10, 11:55 p.m. EST): Yuk! The selloff has exceeded Hidden Pivot supports and 'discomfort' zones -- everything, in fact, except the key low at 113.19 recorded a year ago.  Don't count on it to hold, but its breach could still set up an appealing 'counterintuitive' play. For the rABC set-up, use a= 136.41 (3/2).

Some serious selling in the cryptos kicked in Friday afternoon after the stock market, evidently tired of falling, had shifted into idle ahead of the weekend. Was Bertie perhaps smart enough to discount the possibility that the Ukraine crisis would not improve over the weekend? Or maybe it was simply concerned that Kamala Harris, by all evidence the most brainless person ever to hold high office in the U.S., was America's point-man in Europe?  Whatever the case, for all the terror last week's mau-mauing of crypto bulls may have caused, Bertie would still be a no-brainer 'mechanical' buy if the plunge continues on Monday to the green line (x=37,554). This one is for experts only, but you can still tune to the appropriate thread in the chat room for guidance. Lately, however, this vehicle seems to be attracting little attention in the room. ______ UPDATE (Mar 7, 8:14 p.m.): The trade triggered, but so what? Subscribers seem not to care even slightly, but I'll leave Bertie on the list, at least for a while, in case visitors come to the site expecting to find bitcoin analysis. _______ UPDATE (Mar 8, 9:50 a.m.): Bertie has shriveled into a go-along vehicle, too gutless to rally unless the broad averages are moving higher. Since the broad averages are in a distributive fake-out rally today, I'll suggest setting a stop-loss at 38,100 that would preserve a nominal gain when BRTI reverses with the tide, perhaps later today. Make it o-c-o with an order to exit half of a presumptive four round lots at p=40,766. _______ UPDATE (Mar 8, 11:15 a.m.):  The trade stopped out for a theoretical gain of a little more than $500. I tightened the stop in part because the stock market looks like distributive crap, as mentioned above, but also because I wanted

Economists, particularly those who specialize in monetary theory, generally agree that inflation is an increase in the supply of dollars, and deflation a decrease. In practice, however, this theory is far too vague to be of any value for making predictions, since no one has a clue how much money is out there. There are so many fungible forms of it that even call options on Bolivian reverse floaters could probably be substituted for cash in a cleverly structured transaction. Further complicating the calculation of money in the system is that it can expand like heated gas if borrowers are confident that economic growth will remain strong. That is the underlying dynamic of money velocity, and when the level of confidence reaches a manic level of heedlessness, as is the case now, the money supply will expand commensurately. But what to make of the dollar chart above?  The headlines reflect growing anxiety over inflation, since prices for just about everything are rising, led by crude oil quotes caught in a parabola that has gone out of control. Under the circumstances, shouldn't the dollar be getting hammered?  There is an easy explanation for this seeming paradox: Although the dollar in plain fact is fundamentally worthless crap, all the other currencies are even worse crap. Further widening the gap is the dollar's singular usefulness in supporting a global casino with table action in derivatives markets alone exceeding $2 quadrillion. The dollar is the only currency remotely capable of handling such sums, and that's why it is indispensable. Its relative buoyancy in the global currency toilet would not be much of a concern but for the fact that the vast preponderance of borrowing is denominated in dollars. This means debts will be harder to repay as the dollar continues to rise. It also

Bears performed so poorly over the last two days that I should have flipped our trading pattern to its bullish doppelgänger yesterday to provide you with a more usable road map. Be that as it may, the April contract looks all but certain to achieve the 1964.00 target shown in the new chart. The pattern has already yielded up one textbook 'mechanical' buy at the green line that would have produced an $8,000 profit, but there will be no more such signals unless the futures surprise by diving to the green line again. For now, let's focus on how buyers interact with D=1964.00 on first contact, since an easy and decisive move through it would imply that the good guys, for a change, are likely to remain in charge for a while.

Few expected Ukraine to put up such a fierce fight, least of all Vladimir Putin. Despite his overwhelming advantage of firepower and troops, he and the rest of the world might have known better, given the reputation Russian soldiers of all stripes earned in battle during the last century. Setting ethnic Russians against one another was bound to produce a bloody battle rather than an overnight victory such as Bush achieved shelling Baghdad. As a result, Putin has had to pull out all the stops with a veiled nuclear threat in order to show the world that he has the power to decide the war's outcome if and when chooses. However badly he wants to re-unite the republics under the flag of Mother Russia, fulfilling what he regards as the destiny of a once glorious and powerful USSR, Putin could never have been eager to have Russians spill each other's blood in his quest to rewrite history. It has cost him a reported 4,300 troops already, with corresponding losses on the other side, significant physical damage to Ukraine's physical infrastructure, and an enormous refugee crisis for the country’s civilian population. Nukes? Yeah, Sure... Putin reportedly has put nuclear forces on standby, but the possibility he will use them seems remote. Supposedly, the Russian leader is already considering talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky, even though casualties so far are just a small fraction of what they’d be if a nuclear device were to be used. Putin had seemed astute enough in the past to avoid making idle threats, especially grandiose ones, but in this instance he has shown himself to be no better at wielding a big stick than Biden. In these weekly commentaries, I usually attempt to predict how U.S. markets will react to the significant geopolitical events of the