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AAPL still looks like a no-brainer -- not only to achieve the 187.93 bull market target shown, but to provide a tradeable pullback from it that we can short profitably. It is comforting to have such a predictable bellwether. It is better than that, actually, since the stock provides an unobstructed view into the chimp brains of those who get paid to throw huge quantities of Other People's money at a relative handful of ridiculously overvalued stocks. Get AAPL right, as I have always said, and you get stock the market right. ______ UPDATE (Jan 5, 8:43 p.m.)' The stock has turned down sharply after getting within 2.6% of the 187.93 target. This is interesting, since the E- Mini Dow came even closer to a 36,890 target I was eager to short before it, too, took a steep dive. The yellow flag is out.

Bitcoin has lost its mojo for the moment. It's possible the Nasdaq and S&Ps will need to become white-hot  again before the cryptos resume their natural role as leaders of bull-market insanity. Lately, however, Bertie, ETHE et al. have been unable to convert even the smallest bullish patterns into winners. We bailed out of one last week for a minimal loss, and although it has yet to be stopped out, its struggle to avoid  this has been a sad spectacle. Let's see how the pattern shown plays out before we jump in again. The 'D' target at 56,456 will remain viable as long as C=45,491 is not exceeded to the downside. (The equivalent pattern in ETHE has already been stopped out.) _______ UPDATE (Jan 5, 9:16 p.m. EST): If the so-far tentative bounce from p2=42845 fails, look for more slippage to the 39,805 target of this pattern.

I've come to view bullion's rallies with cynical detachment, but that doesn't mean we can't exploit the gratuitous head-fakes, swoons and dives for trading purposes. The pattern shown should be up to the task, even if it failed to provide a 'mechanical' entry opportunity on either of two nasty feints to the green line.  The pattern and the technique we use to leverage it 'mechanically' are too obscure to suggest we are getting front-run. Indeed, we should infer that gold futures are simply naturally nasty because they are controlled by some of the best-connected weasels in the trading world. We won't try to short D=1873.90, only observe how well it repels buyers. ______ UPDATE (Jan 3, 10:03 p.m. EST): Much as I'd like to tune out gold, the little s.o.b. would trip a 'mechanical' buy signal if it falls to the green line (1783.20). With a stop-loss at 1752.90 and implied entry risk of around $3,000 per contract, this gambit is recommended for 'camo' experts only. To all others, I would suggest paper-trading so that you can better understand how these set-ups work. _______ UPDATE (Jan 4, 5:07 p.m.): Here's a snack-size pattern to use for targeting and trading over the next day or two. It has triggered two 'mechanical' winners, but its main value now lies in its potential to measure trend strength via price action at D=1847.00. If you've made money on the way up, the target can be shorted with a very tight 'reverse' pattern that risks no more than $200 theoretical. _______ UPDATE (Jan 6, 8:04 p.m.): Perhaps you too are tiring of gold's relentlessly annoying rallies and phony breakdowns? Does this vehicle suck, or what?

Silver looks like a slightly better bet than gold to achieve the 'D' rally target of the modest 'reverse' pattern shown. It has signaled one 'mechanical' winner on the way to 23.85, but we are more interested at this point in how strongly the Hidden Pivot resists the uptrend.  It has been tortuous and does not look powerful enough to blow through the resistance. Still, there is no reason to think this is impossible or even unlikely, so let's simply monitor the move closely and exploit it as we always do whenever the odds tilt in our favor. _______ UPDATE (Jan 3, 10:14 p.m. EST): Like February Gold, March Silver would trigger a 'mechanical' buy if it falls to the green line. The 21.40 stop-loss would make the trade equally risky, with $3,000 theoretical at stake on entry. This one, too, is therefore for experts who can pare that down to perhaps $300 per contract. Interested?  Nudge me if I'm in the chat room at post time. _______ UPDATE (Jan 6, 8:12 p.m.): Time to remove Silver from the front page?  I will do so shortly unless there's a popular uprising to save it.

I am updating DXY not because it has done anything interesting since November, but just to have the U.S. dollar on my 'new' front page. It has been locked in a consolidation pattern since then, although the year ended with an imminent but not necessarily serious breakdown.  If the correction continues, it will allow me to switch to a more regular pattern instead of the fiercely gnarly one that has informed us the last month or so. Regardless, we can continue to use D=98.00 as a minimum upside objective for the bull cycle begun in May. It is part of a much larger, bull market that started in 2014. _______ UPDATE (Jan 27, 9:04 p.m. ET): The 98.00 target is in-the-bag, so let's shift our sights upward to the 102.83 D target of this reverse pattern. You can use p2=99.43 as a minimum upside objective for the near term. ______ UPDATE (Feb 3, 9:47 p.m.): The dollar has gone into a fake death dive after rallying to within easy distance of the 98.00 target drum-rolled above.  We'll move to the sidelines for now, the better to sleep through the buck's indeterminate funk.

The felicitously gnarly pattern that I introduced here Wednesday night worked like a dream, signaling a huge 'mechanical' winner on the short side and keeping us properly skeptical for the duration of a vicious, two-day short squeeze. The clock ran out on us before the chiseled-in-stone downside target at 4478.75 could be achieved, however. It remains theoretically viable, even if not as enticing for bottom-fishing as it would have been on Friday at mid-session.

Gold has shown no net gain or loss in a year-and-a-half and will likely remain trapped in a nervous range until something very significant changes in the big economic/financial picture.  The pattern shown, with a 1629.00 downside target given here earlier, has provided some excellent entry points for 'mechanical' and 'reverse' trades; but that's all gold is good for at the moment: just a trade. We can reconsider the dour outlook if the futures pop above mid-November's 1882 high or penetrates the downside target at 1629. The latter seems most unlikely, but the Hidden Pivot levels by themselves will remain useful in any event.

The 22.01 downside target I flagged at the beginning of the week worked beautifully, enabling bottom-fishing less than two cents off the intraday (and weeky) low. It occurred on Friday at  22.03 and gave way to a strong bounce that could have produced a quick profit of as much as $10,000 on four contracts. No one reported doing the trade, however, so I provided no further guidance.  The extent of the bounce is unpredictable at this time, but because it has come from a Hidden Pivot target that took more than three months to reach, we might expect it to continue untroubled for at least another 4-7 days if not significantly longer.

The pattern shown is nutty, but not so nutty that it won't work for getting long 'mechanically' if you choose, or even getting short at D=98.00. I've used it because the more obvious pattern occupying the last four weeks is a little too obvious to be 'our little secret'.  A run-up to 98 is going to create more problems for a bull market that is already years overdue for a devastating correction. It will make overseas profits earned by U.S. multinationals shrink, but it will also tighten the deflationary noose around everyone who owes dollars. This will come as a rude surprise, and ultimately a profound shock, to those who make financial decisions based on what they learn from CNBC, CNN, The Economist, Bloomberg, and the New York POS Times. Rick's Picks readers might not be spared from the ravages of the coming Second Great Depression, but at least they will have seen it coming.