Apple Computer

The World's Most Valuable Company (TWMVC) got the stuffing knocked out of it again on Monday and there may be more.  Which is to say, things are likely to get worse before they get better. For now, use the 182.88 target shown as a minimum downside objective. Please note, however, that if that Hidden Pivot support gets crushed, or the stock closes for two consecutive days beneath it, that would augur a bloodbath to as low as 170.78 over the near term. At that point TWMVC will have given up a little more than 28% of its value since October 3, when shares peaked at a record $233. Under $100 Eventually? Isn't it remarkable how quickly the first phase of a bear market can unfold? Looking well ahead, it could take six to twelve months or longer for the stock to grind out an additional 25% loss. But don't be surprised if the final capitulation takes AAPL well below $100. The company will be far more vulnerable than most retailers in an economic downturn because its main product, the iPhone, is so pricey. If strapped customers should need to delay a trade-in for an additional 2-3 years, they will, no matter what kind of "new-and-improved" hubris accompanies future product launches. One more caveat -- for bears: Every portfolio manager on Earth owns this stock, and they are not about to go quietly into the night. It is therefore 100% predictable that the short-covering rallies will be spectacular, buttressed by planted news stories explaining why the stock is such a great bet to achieve new record highs. Don't believe them. But neither should you stand too stubbornly in the way when AAPL test bears' resolve._______ UPDATE (Nov 20, 9:42 p.m.): The stock began the day with a 10-point plunge to 175.51,

Get AAPL right and your big-picture forecast for the stock market will never go far wrong. Apple is the World's Most Valuable Company, after all, and therefore a must-own for every portfolio manager who wants to keep his or her job. That's why it's the only stock we need follow in order to know exactly what's on institutional investors' tiny, fevered minds. So how have our AAPL predictions fared? On Wednesday the stock plummeted yet again, bottoming just six cents from the 185.87 target hung out here two nights earlier when the stock was $12 higher. It turns out that I made a slight error when I drew the target pattern, and that the correct coordinates would have nailed the actual 185.93 low to-the-penny. Okay, so you're probably wondering what's coming next. A fair question. First of all, there is still room for a major bounce from slightly lower -- from 185.12, to be exact. This Hidden Pivot support differs from the one at 185.93 because it is based on highs and lows that occurred during the night session. If the support fails, it would increase the odds that the bull market begun in 2009 is over. What would constitute a failure? Considering the delicate precision of the pattern used to calculate the target, an overshoot of more than $1.00 (or so), or a two-day close beneath 185.12, would probably prove fatal.  That's why we'll be watching closely to see whether the so-far feeble rally from the initial target gets legs. If it exceeds 197.18 without going significantly lower first, bulls could breathe a mild sigh of relief._______ UPDATE (Nov 19, 9:31 a.m. ET): AAPL is getting whacked ahead of the opening bell because of a reported slowdown in iPhone sales. As the stock continues to fall, keep in mind

Sellers demolished a Hidden Pivot midpoint support at 197.97 on Monday, implying they are likely to push AAPL down to at least 185.87 before they are spent. Droves of buyers evidently stand ready to pounce on the stock near 190 if their posts in the blogosphere are to be believed. But the charts suggest they may have to put up with a little more pain than expected before the stock finally turns around.  It will be trading 20.7% below its all-time high by then, presumably fully corrected for what promises to be a rollicking bear rally. Keep in mind when this happens that Apple, the world's most successful purveyor of overpriced goods, will be more vulnerable than most retailers in the next economic downturn. This means that even iPhone cultists may not be so eager to shell out $800-$1000 every three years for the latest model. And while the company intends to shift its business more toward 'services', so will the competition -- presumably very aggressively in a recession. This won't be an ordinary recession when it finally kicks in, either, since the economy will be unwinding ZIRP madness that has pumped just about every asset other than bullion full of gas. As The World's Most Valuable Company, are Apple shares about to become the bear market's Hindenburg?

Wednesday's strong upthrust tripped a buy signal at 209.27, putting a 242.57 target theoretically in play. It's not an even-odds bet to be reached, although the 220.37 midpoint pivot is. Accordingly, I'll suggest using it as a minimum upside objective for now, and it may even afford us an opportunity to get short with risk very tightly controlled when it is reached. Your trading bias should be bullish in the meantime, alert as always to any 'camouflage' set-ups that occur on the lesser charts. Buyers' interaction with p will deserve our most diligent scrutiny, since it could tell us whether a bull market that has depended on AAPL for leadership has any juice left._______ UPDATE (Nov 10): A week of flailing around generated a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, but it looks too delicate to survive. Look for more flailing as the week begins, then something more decisive on Tuesday or Wednesday. There may be a trade in the offing, so stay close to the chat room if you care.

There are a dozen good reasons why we should be sounding 'taps' for the bull market. But not quite yet, perhaps, with AAPL setting up for what could prove to be a strong last-gasp rally. Why does this seem likely? For one, Friday's 7% plunge was a transparent fraud, engineered by portfolio managers who are eager as always to accumulate more Apple shares at bargain prices. How so? The company reported the usual record earnings on record sales, but its handlers, with the help of their stooges in the press, got the herd to focus on side-issues that should have been of little concern. For one, the company will no longer report hardware sales separately. This change in accounting protocols was described by the news media as an obfuscation, but it merely reflects a shift in emphasis toward the company's growing stream of revenues from services. For two, the downbeat forecast for the holiday season turns out to have been not so much downbeat as simply slightly less-than-glowing. It was instant stampede nevertheless -- fomented by the usual, useful idiots. Mau-Mauing the Hayseeds So that was the 'bad' news, and the smart guys who shamelessly work this stock 24/7 leveraged it to scare widows, pensioners and hayseeds out of their shares.  All of this is not to say AAPL is about to rocket to new record highs. Considering the headwinds the stock market faces from a strengthening dollar, higher interest rates and a collapsing housing sector, it will be increasingly difficult for the Masters of the Universe to sustain the illusion that all is well with the U.S. economy.  But it is not as though they will have to hoist the broad averages higher all by themselves -- only AAPL, the world's most valuable company. AMZN will mechanically follow suit,

AAPL's canny sponsors began the day coaxing a manic leap from panicky bears. The short-covering gap tripped a theoretical buy signal at 217.19 that is predicated on a further rally to at least 228.39, the midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown.. Once decisively above it the stock would be an odds on bet to reach the 'D' target at 250.49.  We'll ignore the trading signal for the time being, but not the stock's feistiness, since AAPL is, as we know, is the most valuable company in the world, owned by nearly every portfolio manager on the planet. That is why it is not going to crash simply because the stock market has developed a case of October sniffles. We'll follow this dirigible closely, since, all by itself, it has the power to hold the U.S. stock market aloft for as long as the institutional chimps continue to buy-and-hold it, and Apple continues to buy back its own shares._______ UPDATE (Nov 1, 10:14 p.m. ET): The stock is getting whomped in after-ours trading Thursday following a punk earnings forecast for the holiday season. AAPL has fallen 7% so far and could go even lower if it achieves the 203.88 target shown.

Although a fall to a 208.04 target I'd drum-rolled here Friday looked like a no-brainer, bulls had other designs. The result was a weak mechanical-short signal that we can ignore for trading purposes, even as we prepare for the drop to 208.04 that's implied. Let's also allow for a bullish reversal, but with the bar set high -- i.e., above the 227.27 peak corresponding to the point 'A' of the pattern shown in today's chart. Were that to occur, the only bullish pattern that makes sense to me would be this one, which implies minimum upside to p=233.86 (click here for chart). That's the first time I've broached that target, but we should take it seriously because Apple is the most valuable company on Earth._______ UPDATE (Oct 28, 5:10 p.m.): Lest AAPL's big but tedious swings put us in a trance that causes us to miss a bullish breakout if it comes, I've lowered the bar to 224.50.  This chart shows why. _______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 6:48 p.m.): After plummeting for most of the day, the stock trampolined from just beneath my longstanding target at 208.04.  My guess is that sellers are spent for the moment. However, the fact that they overshot such a clear and compelling Hidden Pivot support even slightly implies more weakness ahead. Here's a fresh chart. ______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 9:23 p.m.): Today's price action felt like accumulation, but if DaBoyz should surprise by feinting lower in the early going, hitting the 208.81 midpoint support shown in this chart, be prepared to buy some expiring 220 calls for a leveraged play. If you do buy them, offer half to close for twice what you've paid, g-t-c.

AAPL has gotten socked over the last five days, but sellers have yet to surpass a key support beneath which the stock would generate a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart. Even then, the big picture would remain bullish, albeit with diminishing authority if the downtrend were to continue to exceed 'external' lows, especially doing so without much pause. The next such low lies at 208.33, but in the meantime we should monitor upward abcd corrections, since they would be telegraphing yet more weakness if they fail to reach their respective 'd' targets._______ UPDATE (Oct 14, 5:08 p.m.): A follow-through to at least 224.93, the 'D' target shown in this chart, looks like a no-brainer at the moment. Since AAPL is a trillion dollar stock, we might expect it to pull the broad averages higher or at least keep them buoyant when the new week begins. If buyers blow past the target, it would add even more bullishness to the big picture. ________ UPDATE (Oct 15, 9;56 p.m.): Friday's giddy end-of-day rally reversed sharply as the new weeks began. It smells like distribution, but we won't know until we've seen more weakness. A midpoint Hidden Pivot at 215.41 is a logical place for a bounce, and you can bottom-fish there with a tight stop-loss. If it gives way, however, expect more slippage to 207.94. Here's the chart.  _______ UPDATE (Oct 17, 12:07 p.m.):  The bounce we were expecting was strong and came from a 216.76 low, stranding our niggardly bid. A move today above 224.40 would re-energize the hourly chart by creating a fresh impulse leg.______ UPDATE (Oct 17, 5:50 p.m.): Today's sloppy price action changed nothing in my forecast. ________ UPDATE (Oct 18, 11:13 p.m.): The stock gapped down on the opening bar and continued to fall before finding

AAPL shredded a 231.13 Hidden Pivot rally target with such ease on Wednesday that the stock is all but guaranteed to reach 240.45 (see inset) over the near term.  It gained $2.35 on the day, generating enough additional paper wealth to buy eleven million pairs of Gucci loafers. If you stacked them fifteen-high, they would cover Alaska and Texas to a depth of 18 inches. If you instead bought Evian water, it would fill 3,240 Olympic-size swimming pools. A thousand video-gamers couldn't spend it all in an arcade if they played Mortal Kombat round-the-clock for 22 months.  As we know, however, most of the wealth will go not into Gucci shoes, but into the pockets of institutional investors who are paid princely sums to throw OPM at a relative handful of stocks. Nice work if you can get it. AAPL is the most valuable publicly traded company in the world, implying that it takes increasingly vast sums of OPM to levitate the stock. This has posed no problem, at least not so far. The Cupertino purveyor of overpriced smartphones has been buying back tens of billions of dollars worth of its own shares. In addition fresh quantities of OPM appear to be flowing into AAPL at a torrential pace, so eager are investors to get a piece of the surest of sure things. We'll go with the flow ourselves -- to 240.45, anyway  -- but it will be tempting to short this out-of-control gas-bag with some tightly stopped put options when it gets there._______ UPDATE (Oct 7, 4:37 p.m.):  The stock plummeted to the green line Friday, generating a moderately appealing 'mechanical' buy signal. I say 'moderately' because the correction, assuming that's what it is, has come from a higher starting point than we should prefer. Let's see how it