E-Mini S&P

The December contract is all but certain to achieve the 3481.75 target (see inset), but it remains to be seen whether it can blow past it. You can try shorting there with a tight stop if you've made a few bucks on the way up or if you know how to use an rABC set-up to trigger the trade. 'Mechanical' set-ups have been working consistently, as you may have noticed, although the one that caught the low tied to Trump's recent flip-flop on a stimulus package was a bit hairier than we'd have preferred. If the futures settle above 3481.75 for two consecutive days or achieve 3488 intraday, they'll be signaling more upside to the p2 and D pivots of a larger pattern shown here.  The respective resistances lie at 3488.44 and 3585.25.

Trump's decision to table stimulus talk knocked stocks for a loop and will likely keep pressure on the market at a time when seasonality would be working against it to begin with.  We'll have a better idea of whether the insanely ebullient mood on Wall Street has dimmed once we've seen how the pattern shown in the chart plays out. It is a pretty good specimen of 'mechanical' buy, meaning anyone who got long at the green line on Tuesday afternoon should make money via a snap-back rally to at least p=3369.50.  If the trade instead gets stopped out at 3291.25, that would imply the structure of The Rally That Wouldn't Die may have been compromised. If so, the futures will soon find themselves groping for traction all the way down to 3200, where important lows were carved out two weeks ago.

The selloff on news of  Trump's illness triggered a 'mechanical' buy in the wee hours on Friday, but the position is probably no better than an even bet to survive whatever news greets the markets when they re-open Sunday night.  There was a theoretical profit of $850 per contract in the trade at the closing bell on Friday, but anyone who took the position home over the weekend was going out on a limb. The 3438.25 rally target will remain viable unless the futures drop below C=3291.25 first. That is all but certain to happen if the President's condition worsens over the weekend.  His symptoms have been mild so far, but so were Boris Johnson's initially.  A selloff Sunday night could be expected to fall to at least p=3277.25, where you can bottom-fish with a very tight stop-loss. However, if this midpoint pivot fails, the next stop would be p2=3221.88. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Oct 5, 5:03 p.m.): Trump survived the weekend, disappointing millions and sending stocks into an ebullient short-squeeze that was continuing in the early evening. The 3438.25 rally target is not in doubt, but if you want to go short, use this pattern to position a tight rABC against the mob.

Friday's short-squeeze tripped a 'weak' mechanical short at p=3275.50, stop 3323.50, but there was no compelling reason to get short ahead of the weekend. Another short of comparable risk would be signaled if the bounce continues to the green line, x=3347.50. This is a so-so opportunity because the A-B impulse leg created between 9/3 and 9/9 was not especially strong. In practice, we can do the trade anyway, but using an rABC set-up on a chart of lesser degree to trigger an entry.  As it stands, the theoretical risk using a full-level stop-loss is about $2500 per contract.  The goal is D=3131.50, and it still looks like no worse than an even shot to be achieved. However, all bets are off if the futures take a lunatic leap exceeding 3363.00 Sunday night or Monday. That's equal to an 'external' peak recorded 9/18 on the way down. ______ UPDATE (Sep 29, 4:24 p.m.): Ha-ha. The little wiseguy popped to 3363.00 exactly, implying that a 'mechanical' short at the green line was still not a bad bet to hit 3131.50.  We'll shun the E-mini's  rattlesnake charm for now while retaining a mildly bearish bias. Alternatively, a move above 3363.00 and bears would be toast. _______ UPDATE (Sep 30, 6:07): Looks like bears are toast, although the 45-point pullback from an intraday peak at 3384.00 well above our toast threshold suggests there are too many bulls to make this hoax waft higher without occasional labor-intensive inputs. The best bears can hope for is for the futures to merely flail around before the next short squeeze. ______ UPDATE (Oct 1, 6:13 p.m.): There are still too many bulls, and they wheezed all day, failing to improve much on the short-squeeze rally they'd been gifted with overnight. That's why my bias for Friday will be

Bears should have been able to close the Dow down at least 1000 points on Monday. Instead they turned gutless before the session was even halfway over, driving the futures into a short-covering spasm that was continuing into the evening and had recouped more than half of the day's losses by around 8:30 p.m. The buying binge is attributable in part to the fact that DaBoyz had bullish control of AAPL all day long and would not let it touch 100.  This is no surprise, considering DaDirtballs are covering shares that were shorted as high as $138 in the post-split rampage. Regarding the E-Mini S&Ps, they would trip a weak 'mechanical' short if they reach x=3347.50, the green line. The bearish target thereafter, D=3131.50 (see inset) is derived by sliding the point 'A' high up to the 3574.00 high recorded on September 3. We'll paper trade the short because it is not ideal due to the weak impulse leg. _______ UPDATE (Sep 23, 9:43 pm. ET): The two-day detour has not altered the odds of a fall to at least 3131.50.

The target we've been using at 3238.50 (corrected from a dyslexic 3228.50 given here earlier) still looks like minimum downside from here, but also a place to attempt bottom-fishing with a tight stop-loss, especially if you've been short on the way down. It can be used as well to 'mechanically' short the futures from either p=3329  or x=3374.25, although I am not recommending either trade explicitly until I've seen how the little sonofabitch opens Sunday night. As always, a decisive penetration of the 'D' support, especially on first contact, would telegraph even more weakness to come.

The corrective pattern furnished here Thursday night is still on-track to fall to its D target, which for the December contract is 3233.00, nine points lower. Friday's fake overnight waft narrowly missed triggering a juicy short when it failed by a few points to reach the  green line. Now, although a run-up to the line would trigger a second signal, I am not recommending the trade unless you know how to cut the risk with an rABC set-up.  Bottom-fishing at p2=3278.25 with a tight stop-loss or 'counterintuitive' set-up will be simpler, as will similar tactics at D=3233.00.  A decisive overshoot of D would be bearish. _______ UPDATE (Sep 15, 4:38 p.m. ET): The trade came within an inch of getting stopped out, but I am still in love with the pattern, although no longer the odds.  An old Hidden Pivot rule says that if a beautiful set-up doesn't work, do the opposite. In this case, however, I am not recommending trading with a bullish bias because I don't trust the rally. Move to the sidelines for now. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Sep 16, 5:04 p.m.): This is exactly what I was talking about when I said Mr. Market was doing his utmost to keep bears from getting short. This kind of price action is damned near impossible to short, at least with entry risk under tight control. _______ UPDATE (Sep 17, 10:33 p.m.): Call me a masochist, but I'm still in love with the pattern shown. It's stopped out bears no fewer than twice this week, and the D target at 3238.50 is slightly higher than the original, but that's where the futures are headed -- for sure! -- even if they get there without any of us patient, cautious, super-smart bears aboard.

I was more eager to short this rabid weasel when it tiptoed to within an inch of the 3402.75 target last week. However, the subsequent dive-and-bounce histrionics seem too strenuous to produce a merely marginal higher high when index futures resume trading Sunday night. To get just a step ahead of hard technical evidence, my gut feeling is that the futures will blow past p with such force that we can confidently assume they are one their way to the 3486.00 target of the pattern shown. You can short 3402.75 nonetheless, but approach it as a day trade -- i.e., with a tight stop and expectations of just a small profit. This one may trigger Sunday evening, so night owls should be alert to that possibility when they return to their screens. _______ UPDATE (Aug 24, 6:27 p.m.):  After a stumble in the first hour, the futures powered their way to another impressive gain. They should be presumed headed most immediately to at least 3444.38, the 'secondary' Hidden Pivot of the pattern projecting to 3486.00. Be alert to a possible stall there and, provided you know how, an opportunity to get short using an 'rABC' setup on the lesser intraday charts. _______ UPDATE (Aug 25, 6:18 p.m.): The 3486.00 target has the potential to create a major top, and I'd suggest you get short there in some way or fashion, even if it means interpolating with puts in SPY. I will be traveling tomorrow and not in the trading room, but you should stay close to the room for crowdsourced ideas if you're interested in the trade.  The 3486.00 target has been drum-rolled for long enough to be mildly jinxed, but don't let that put you off. It deserves to be shorted come what may. If the futures blow past

Since triggering a profitable 'mechanical' trade Sunday night, the futures have been unable to extend the rally even to the secondary Hidden Pivot at 2687, much less the pattern's D target at 2781. Panic selling and buying have ebbed, leaving the playing field to traders who have found interesting ways to pass the time until the pandemic story mutates in some significant way, for better or worse.  Swings of 50-100 points have become routine, and the only worrisome thing about this is that worry has been replaced by, if not complacency, then a tense kind of boredom. For our purposes, although the D target remains theoretically viable, trades in either direction are best orchestrated on the lesser charts where swings of perhaps 10-15 points occur all day long.