E-Mini S&P

After stalling briefly at the 1184.50 midpoint resistance noted here, the futures resumed their trek higher, presumably bound for the midpoint's 'D' sibling at 1233.00.  Pullbacks have been too shallow so far for camouflage, but I've identified two peaks that could help us find a tradable abc pattern Wednesday night if price action is felicitous.

The futures have reversed on the hourly chart without having quite reached our downside target at 1129.00, obliging us to take this lunatic lunge from yesterday's lows seriously. What is its potential? Most immediately, to 1184.50, the midpoint pivot of the pattern shown.  However, it will take just a bit more than that -- specifically, a print above the 1185.25 peak shown, to refresh the bull trend with the creation of a new impulse leg.  A close above that number would strongly hint of more upside to 1233.00, the 'd' sibling of the 1184.50 Hidden Pivot.

We're short a single contract from 2004.25 after covering three others on the way down. I'd suggested a wide stop-loss for this trade, since the futures broke sharply after our "camouflage" entry at 1200.00.  Labor Day trading has sent this vehicle plummeting anew, yielding a target of 1129.00 as of around 11 a.m. EDT (see chart).  Based on a so-far low of 1138.25, leaving 10.50 points of profit potential, and risk:reward held constant at 1:3 throughout the trade, we should be using a stop-loss no higher than 1141.75.  However, because the futures have bounced and are already trading above that number, let's use a "structural" stop-loss at  1148.50 that lies a tick above a peak-let made this morning enroute to the low.  The stop should be worked one-cancels other with a closing bid at 1129.75, three ticks above the target.  If we cover at the higher stop, the theoretical profit per contract would be about $2775. _______ UPDATE (9:55 a.m. EDT): With the futures in a headless-chicken frenzy of pointless, panicky  ups and downs, we covered near 1148.50 around 3:10 a.m.  The theoretical gain would have been slightly less than $2800 per contract. At the moment, the hourly chart reflects "dueling" impulse legs, although a print down at 1132.50 would settle the skirmish in bears' favor.  This is what I expect to happen, and I would therefore suggest that you look for opportunities to get short rather than long.  Alternatively, a rally exceeding 1162.50 would tip the short-term outlook bullish.

The futures sputtered out well shy of a 1241.00 rally target after topping three ticks above a lesser target at 1227.75.  The selloff was strongly impulsive, breaching two internal and two external lows on the daily chart.  The move could be shortable, especially by night owls, since the tail end was developing into a small abc pattern with a midpoint yet to occur. Beware of a possible bounce when that happens, however, since that will probably be the futures' best opportunity to finish the week on an upstroke.  _______ UPDATE (1179.50): The pattern worked very closely to the way I'd drawn it, triggering a 1200.00 short-entry 'x' at around 3:15 after single-bar coordinates had been formed at points b and c.  Half the position would have been covered at 1199.00 (aka 'p';) and half of whatever remained at 1196.75 (the 'd' target of our small camouflage pattern).  For your further guidance, I am establishing a tracking position that leaves us  short one contract with a 2004.25 basis that has been adjusted for theoretical profit-taking at the price points given above.  Since the futures left no 'external' peaks on the wild opening bars that we could use for placing a stop-loss, and because seasonality will have turned very bearish when Wall Street's brainless trading algorithms return to work on Tuesday, we'll swing for the fences and let the single-contract position ride with a stop-loss at 2001.25.

Considering that yesterday was the last day of the month in a week typically bursting with bullish Labor Day seasonality, the Dow's 54-point rally ranks pretty low for Wow factor.   On the other hand, the fact that a 1241.00 Hidden Pivot target in the E-Mini S&P demands that bulls -- all two of them -- slog at least somewhat higher before they take a rest, is testimony to staying power of this presumptive bear rally.

A 1241.00 rally target, as stale by now as a potato chip discovered under a seat cushion, is still our featured number for better or worse. Forget about camouflage, since the trek to our target is producing as many shorting opportunities as buying opportunities. Most immediately, there's a minor rally pattern projecting to 1227.75, subject to interference at a 1220.75 midpoint that has yet to be reached. (The high so far is 1219.25).

It was stumble-step-step-stumble yesterday, but because the futures got past a minor Hidden Pivot resistance I'd flagged at 1215.00, they should be presumed on-track for a run-up to 1241.00.  The action was so erratic that there will probably be little value in my suggesting a camouflage strategy for Tuesday night.  In fact, the futures were weakening as we went to press, and a further 10 points of downside from here, exceeding a prior low at 1192.00, would turn the hourly chart bearish.

All was quiet shortly before 1 a.m. EDT, with bullion trading near the day-session close and S&P  index futures off slightly. The latter should be good for a 30-point rally, however, if it can get past a Hidden Pivot midpoint whose precise location is noted in today's tout for the E-Mini S&P.

Voracious buyers chomped through resistance near 1200 so easily yesterday that we can only infer the futures are headed for the 1241.00 target shown.  Camouflage buying opportunities will be tough to find, considering the steepness of the rally, but if the future should pull back to the 1176.25 midpoint of our rally pattern, that's where I would suggest looking. More immediately, the night session high at 1210.0o precisely equals a Hidden Pivot resistance derived from the hourly chart (A=1111.25 (8/21, 8:30 p.m.), B=1188.50, and C=1132.75) so any movement above it, even slight, would augur further progress toward 1241.00. That would be reason to seek out bull trades aggressively for the next 25 or so points.  One caveat:  a minor hidden resistance at 1215.00.