E-Mini S&P

Mild weakness in the index futures Sunday night suggests that the night-shift scumballs are letting prices fall, the better to dry up sellers and run stocks higher later tonight or on the opening.  If the E-Mini S&Ps can be maneuvered no lower than their current minus-7 points, I'd expect the inevitable goosing before or at the opening to push them to plus-7 points

Despite the E-Mini's mindless, flea-bitten histrionics of the last two days, we remain short a single contract from 1363.00, stop 1358.25. My minimum downside target for the minor cycle is 1310.0, but my intention is to implement a trailing stop only after the position has gone 100 points in-the-black.  If you hold more than a single contract, however, I would strongly suggest taking profits near 1310.00 so that only a third of your original position remains.

We're short a single contract from 1363.00, but keep in mind, as the little s.o.b. slithers out of the ooze yet again, that the seemingly inevitable thrust to stupid new highs will not deny us at least a small profit from a trade ostensibly gone wrong.  Maintain the recommended stop-loss at 1358.50 -- and count on using any proceeds we take away from this trade to cushion the stop the next time we get short. ______ UPDATE (12:30 p.m. EDT): Ahhh, that's more like it! With the futures down 17 points at the moment, our short position is looking pretty good once again, having survived a challenge overnight posed by a feeble, volume-less short-squeeze.  We are still shooting for at least $5000 of profit per contract, so continue to maintain positions.

We are short a single contract from yesterday's high, 1358.25.  The position can be carried with a cost basis of 1363.00 after we impute gains from a second contract closed out at or near 1352.75. As noted in today's commentary, although we ordinarily implement a trailing stop when such positions go solidly in-the-green, in this case we'll swing for the fences.  A fixed stop can be used at 1358.50 for now, but we'll hold off on a trailing stop until such time as the futures fall at least a hundred points.

I hung out a 1358.25 target a short while ago, so let's try shorting there with a 1.00-point stop-loss. This is probably more easily done during the night session, since morning could bring a gap-up opening, so take extra care.  There's a quite important target above it, at 1385.50, that should be held in mind as a possible top for the summer.  To my eye, price action at the midpoint strongly supports the viability --and accuracy -- of the target itself.  Please note that if the even larger rally pattern evident in this chart plays out -- i.e., the one starting in the lower left-hand corner -- the futures could go as high as 1415.00.  ______ UPDATE (9:55 a.m. EDT):  Turns out we didn't need the 1.00-point stop-loss, since the futures peaked overnight precisely at 1358.25 -- a dead-center bullseye.  Assuming two contracts were shorted, cover half here, at 1352.75, and use a 1357.50 stop-loss for what remains.  I'm not recommending a trailing stop, at least not yet, because we'll be swinging for the fences on this one.

Shorts initiated yesterday from near 1345.00 should be tied to a 1349.75 stop-loss. That is somewhat lower than the 1355.25 stop suggested here earlier, but it is also where the five-minute chart would now become menacing.  Please note that the lesser charts are already working on a minor, bullish impulse leg that yields a 1351.75 target and a midpoint at 1347.00. On weakness, the first high-odds spot to try bottom fishing would be at 1323.00. a Hidden Pivot on the hourly chart derived from the coordinates A=1354.00, B=1325.25, C=1351.75.

The futures have opened on an upward gap into the approximate middle of Friday's gratuitous ups and downs. The move equates to a Dow rally of about 50 points, but the mood could change, as it frequently does, before Monday morning's opening. Through it all, we shouldn't fail to notice that the 1371.00 Hidden Pivot that I'd presumed would mark yet one more temporary peak has yet to be challenged.  Might it actually turn out to have been the Mother of All Bear Rally tops?  Since it's counterproductive to speculate, we'll focus on leveraging the possibility by seeking aggressively to get short.  Accordingly, I'll recommend doing so at 1358.25, the 'D' target of the pattern shown, using a 1.00-point stop-loss. To make this gambit more interesting, and perhaps more profitable, we'll also try to get long for the ride from the midpoint to the target.  As it happens, on the five-minute chart the midpoint lies between two peaks at, respectively, 1344.00 and 1346.00 that will be ideal for 'camouflage'-equipped traders.  Simply follow the rules on this one, because it looks prospectively like a very high-confidence play. _____ UPDATE (10:26 a.m. EDT):  In the chat room and via e-mail, I've received reports from several subscribers who shorted the midpoint, so I'll establish a tracking position for your guidance.  If you initiated the position on multilots, cover half now around 1336.00 and used 1352.00 as a profit-adjusted cost basis. A 1355.25 stop-loss is suggested until my minimum downside target for the near term is achieved: 1332.75.  Thereafter, a trailing stop suited to your temperament can be used.

The midpoint support shown in the chart lies in the middle of nowhere, so to speak, making it an attractive spot to try bottom-fishing with a stop-loss as tight as 1326.75.  If it gives way, try again at 1322.75, the 'd' target of a pattern larger than the one shown. ______ UPDATE (10:52 a.m. EDT): The futures dipped no lower than 1332.75 overnight, hinting that DaSleazeballs knew there would be bad economic news to run stocks higher when morning arrived.

Gold and Silver were getting savaged, so we searched diligently for clues concerning how long the correction might last and how severe it might be. We also took a close look at the Dollar Index, since the continuation of the dollar’s bear market would be a positive for bullion. Finally, we took a real trade in the E-Mini S&P, using the ‘d’ target of a corrective pattern. The trade worked, allowing us to take a partial profit and to secure the remainder of the position against risk.