E-Mini S&P

The futures have rebounded a bit after being down 14 points, roughly equivalent to 100 Dow points.  This is still within a range that has produced solid rallies on Mondays, but look out below if DaBoyz maneuver the broad averages so that they open in positive territory.  From a Hidden Pivot standpoint, my bias is negative, since Friday's low somewhat exceeded a 1286.50 pivot that maxed-out all possible 'd' targets on the hourly chart.  Shortly after midnight EDT, dithering price action was forming a pennant, but as implied above, I'd be wary if it is used to pop the March contract into green territory on or shortly before the opening bell.

Yesterday's exhilarating plunge may have felt special, but on the hourly chart (see inset) it was of a piece with the chop-and-slop price action of the last few weeks.  Is it the initial rumbling of an avalanche?  We may be better able to answer that question after we've seen how aggressively sellers attack a Hidden Pivot support at 1286.50. That's my minimum downside projection at the moment, but look out below next week if it's decisively exceeded, especially on a closing basis.

We went bottom-fishing in the E-Mini S&P at a delicate target, only to get stopped out for small change. This is telegraphing more weakness on Thursday, since it was the lowest target I could have projected using the five-minute chart.

The 1312.75 target disseminated here and in the chat room yesterday morning caught a fleeting low and a whoopee cushion bounce, but the action was too violent for a timer to get much of a ride. Since all downtrending patterns seem to be "maxing out," I'll recommend bottom-fishing at 1309.25, the lowest correction target that can be inferred from the five-minute chart (see inset).  A two-tick (!) stop-loss would be appropriate._______ UPDATE (1:24 pa.m. EST): The trade was stopped out for a loss of two or perhaps three ticks ($25 or $37.50) hinting of underlying weakness yet to play out.  Adding to a bearish picture is that the futures have found support in a too-obvious place:  Tuesday's structural low at 1306.00.

This session is interesting for its failures – mainly, to find a good trade no matter how hard we looked. Poring over charts for the E-Mini S&Ps, Gold and the Dollar Index, although we were able to precisely predict key price reversal in each – particularly reversals off midpoint supports -- downshifting to lesser charts revealed few distinctive camouflage opportunities if we strictly adhered to the rules. But with so many vehicles to trade, and so many opportunities in the course of an average day, why settle for trades that offer less-than-great odds?

Night time action around 3 a.m. was turgid not only in index futures, but in Gold and Silver contracts as well.  The E-Mini S&Ps have thus far failed to push above a tiny resistance peak noted in today's tout, suggesting DaBoyz were lacking in either guts, energy, or both.

The hysterical swings of the last two weeks are starting to tighten into a pennant capable of producing an upthrust for which traders need to be prepared.  In Magee-and-Edwards theory, the dithering could go on for as long as another week or two, but using the Hidden Pivot Method, we can determine exactly when the futures are ready to move by watching closely for fresh impulse legs on the lesser charts. Keep in mind that it is after lengthy periods of tedium that camouflageurs enjoy their greatest edge -- as long as they're willing to pay close attention when most other traders will have fallen asleep. For starters, night owls should open a one-minute chart in order to spot a breakout above a 1322.00 look-to-the-left peak made on the way down yesterday at exactly 4:02 p.m. EST.  A 'b-c' pullback from just above that peak could provide the best opportunity you'll see tonight to jump aboard a fledgling uptrend. _______ UPDATE (9:45 a.m. EST):  The futures idled most of the night, finally poking above 1422.00 around 4:30 in the morning.  This did indeed initiate the best rally of the day, at least so far, but it was only to 1325.00, and there was a premature entry signal at 1321.75 (A=1317.50) that would have generated a small loss and required a second try (at 1321.25, 5:30 a.m.).  At 9:45 a.m., the futures were being manipulated lower, presumably to a 1312.75 Hidden Pivot target that would max-out corrective patterns on the 1-minute chart (A=1325.00, B=1318.00, and C=1319.75.).

A predicted fall to at least 1286.50 looks to be on-track, since yesterday's close was beneath the 1311.50 midpoint sibling of that Hidden Pivot.  Shortly before 10 p.m. EST, there was a smaller bearish pattern developing that projected to 1289.25.  Since just a small upward feint could destroy it, I'll suggest checking out the chart I've provided before you consider a camouflage short.  _______ UPDATE (1:59 a.m. EST): I couldn't find any news to explain how the night-shift dirtballs have been able to short-squeeze this gas-bag a laughable 8.25 points, but that's what working the night shift is all about -- i.e. picking up the scent of information that has not yet been widely disseminated.  So far,  this con game has gotten the futures to 1317.50, the exact Hidden Pivot target of the pattern (5-minute) A=1304.25, B=1313.75, C=1308.00; however, if they go any higher, a minimum 1319.00 would be indicated.  That is the end of the line on the five-minute chart, and, like 1317.50, it is short-able with a very tight stop-loss.  The short would not be a high-odds play, though, since the thrust would be impulsively bullish on the lesser intraday charts due to the 1317.75 look-to-the-lefter made yesterday morning around 10:30. _______ UPDATE (9:11 a.m. EST):  The laughs reached a crescendo when the futures topped overnight at...1318.50!  Officially, a miss is as good as a mile, so this miss left us officially two ticks shy of getting short at the top.

Two weeks of tedious, albeit volatile, dithering has produced a mildly bearish pattern that would be nicely resolved with a drop to exactly 1286.50.  That's a buy-able Hidden Pivot (stop 1285.75), and its sibling midpoint at 1311.50 came within a single tick of containing Friday's fall.  Alternatively, a rally target at 1356.00 has been in our crosshairs for so long that its appeal has eroded.  In any event, it remains shortable either via camouflage or with a 1358.25 stop-loss.