E-Mini S&P

With the Dow down 150 points in the early going yesterday, bears might have imagined they had the bad guys on the run. Alas, a brisk torrent of OPM came rushing back into shares, inflating them like a shot of propane lifting a hot-air balloon.  All of the manufactured excitement didn't leave much for us in the way of opportunity, but if you're looking for action, I'll suggest trying the bottom-fishing gambit shown in the chart.  I won't mention the Hidden Pivot itself in this tout so that it can be an "unadvertised special." _______ UPDATE (8:59 a.m. ET):  The futures took a 3-point bounce from 1186.00, so the trade was hypothetically a winner, although not a big one.  The futures subsequently dipped to 1185.00, and although a 7-point rally ensued, the damage had already been done, signaling the weakness that has followed.  It yields an 1175.25 target, which you can bottom-fish with a stop-loss as tight as two ticks.

Take a look at the chart if you want to see a worthless day of navel-gazing.  When I wrote as follows, I only hope that I saved you the tedium and minor anguish of tracking the futures for six pointless hours: "Let’s spare ourselves any ambitions in this vehicle today..."  Anyway, today is potentially a different story if DaBoyz kick off Thanksgiving week's obligatory short-squeeze coming out of the gate.   The Hidden Pivot resistance to monitor lies at 1199.50 -- exactly where Friday's head-butting inanity paused no fewer than three times. A three-point move above it today, or a close above it, would portend more upside over the near term to at least 1228.00.  Here are the relevant coordinates from the 60-minute chart: A=1167.75 (October 27), B=1124.75 (November 9).

Let's spare ourselves any ambitions in this vehicle today, since the minor-cycle ABCD rally begun yesterday left a gap that no bull could have traded. The presumptive finishing stroke projects to 1204.25,  but that Hidden Pivot resistance holds little promise for shorting because it lies so close to a 1205.75 peak from November 15 --  peak that seems likely to tempt breakout traders.

The futures were wafting higher Wednesday night, up eight points at the moment, but the gain was attributable more to a lack of supply than to any apparent buying enthusiasm. Under the circumstances, we should ask no less than 1195.00 before we take the rally seriously, since that's what it would take to create an unambiguous impulse leg on the hourly chart.  Because the current impulse is bearish, we might consider shorts seriously for the first time in a long, long while.

Like Gold and Silver, the E-Mini S&P has done little damage to its daily chart in falling somewhat more than 50 points over the last few days. The picture would darken considerably, however, if the selling persists, driving the futures below 1155.50. That would create a bearish impulse leg of daily-chart degree, as well as make any subsequent bounce a tempting short sale. Trades today will most likely come from the 15-minute chart or lower, since there are no Hidden Pivot targets of consequence nearby. Structural supports exist in the form of prior lows near 1167.00, but their value to us lies only in their potential to become, through subtle breaches, elements of camouflage.

The Hidden Pivot support at 1184.75 where I'd suggested bottom-fishing yesterday is still valid, so let's try again using the same 1.00-point stop-loss that was originally advised.  You could try once more at 1177.25, stop 1176.50, if the trade fails, since that's where the futures will likely be seeking another opportunity to bottom. _______ UPDATE (10:10 a.m.ET):  This one hit a dead-center bullseye.  The futures came down to exactly 1184.75 on the opening, then rallied 4.25 points to 1190.00.  Since we used a three-tick stop-loss initially, partial profit-taking and/or the implementation of a can't-lose trailing stop was implied at 1187.00, nine ticks above the entry. The futures subsequently made a secondary low at 1184.50, but because the move down created no new impulse legs of even minor degree, you could still be holding some contracts at your discretion.

This flying pig has been losing altitude for a week, but not nearly quickly enough to satisfy the bearish appetite.  Still more dispiriting is that it would take a rally today to just 1211.50 to undo the candy-assed downtrend of recent days. Be that as it may, of all the punk patterns yielding potentially tradable targets, I like best the one that points to a Hidden Pivot support at 1184.75 for purposes of bottom-fishing.  An initial stop-loss at 1183.75 is suggested.

Instead of speculating nervously about whether Gold is headed into some sort of horrendous decline -- a prospect which I strongly doubt -- let's simply focus on what Gold itself is telling us.  For starters, bulls would be back in charge of the day trend if they can push the futures above a very small peak at 1379.00 that's nicely visible on the 15-minute chart.  Failing that, and assuming no intervening move above 1375.50 (aka point 'c'),  a midpoint support at 1357.60 can serve as a correction target for the very near-term.  If it should fail decisively, however, we could infer that more downside awaits to at as low as 1339.80, its 'd' sibling.  A third Hidden Pivot support sits at 1354.70, and it looks to me like the most opportune spot to try bottom-fishing.  All three price points are shown in the accompanying chart. ______ UPDATE (5:29 p.m. ET):  How very coy.  The low of the day was...1354.80, a single tick from my number, but officially we'll score it as "nothing done," since, strictly speaking, the microscopic miss was as good as a mile.  If, for your own reasons, you did buy a tick off the low, you have a nice profit cushion to play with, since the futures are currently trading 1360.00, up $5.20 off the bottom.

The futures wasted an entire day failing to fall to an in-our-face Hidden Pivot support at 1194.00. The target remains valid nonetheless, and you can plan once again on bottom-fishing with an 1194.25 bid, stop 1193.50.  I don't intend for you to take this position home over the weekend, so don't initiate the trade so late in the day that you might have trouble exiting by the close.  Since the market's resilience yesterday came on a day when bad news from Cisco should have caused stocks to get schmeissed, there is always that chance they'll go higher today.  This would be a non-event, however, until such time as 1219.75 is reached, since that's where a bullish impulse leg would be created on the 15-minute chart. _______ UPDATE (8:58 a.m. ET):  I blew a nice trade by not following my own rule, which says:  Put the stop-loss below the next whole number -- in this case, 1193.00.  The implied 1192.75 stop-loss -- rather than the showboatingly tight 1193.50 that I advised -- would have caught the subsequent 13-point rally and provided an effortless ride to a gain of as much as $650 per contract.