E-Mini S&P

The futures generated a robustly bullish impulse leg before the final bell on Friday, although the pattern shown looks like it will need a somewhat lower point 'C' to become tradeable. For the time being we can use the A-B leg shown to project a rally target in the early going on Monday. If the futures should pull back by a few points to start the day, my gut feeling is that a conventional entry at the subsequent 'x' will produce a winning trade. _______ UPDATE (Mar 5, 10:14 EST): The futures opened on a gap down Sunday afternoon, but the lower point 'C'  this produced did little for us. If you entered 'conventionally' at X, the subsequent rally to p=2687.50 would have allowed you to take a partial profit there and lower your break-even to 2674.00. When ES dipped below that price you'd have been stopped out five hours after initiating the trade with a loss of perhaps a tick or two on each of two contracts. As of the moment, my short-term bias is bearish, based on the 15-minute chart where A =2721.75 on 3/1.

Monday's maniacal leap brought the futures to within 29 points of the 2809.75 target drum-rolled here earlier.  There is little doubt this Hidden Pivot resistance will be reached, although I expect a potentially tradeable pullback from within a point or so of it. That's because the pattern I've used to calculate the target is so clear and compelling. However, if the March E-mini S&P were to push past the target with ease, that would imply there is significant buying power remaining to be spent.  Regardless, I will be monitoring the lesser charts closely once stocks are again in record-high territory, since anything above the old highs would create ideal conditions for a wicked trap designed by Mr. Market to snare bulls and bear alike. Putting my heightened cautiousness aside, the futures already look like a good bet to reach the 2988.75 target shown. That would equate to a Dow rally to 28245. ______ UPDATE (Feb 27, 7:22 p.m.): The selloff generated a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart with the futures 20 points shy of a 2809.75 target that had looked like a lock-up. The yellow flag is out and would turn red if the selloff takes out last week's 2682.00 low. ________ UPDATE (Mar 1, 10:04 p.m.): The breach of the green line is now decisive, implying the futures are bound for a minimum 2615.00, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a bearish pattern projecting to as low as 2440.25.

Bulls carried the day on Friday, clearing a path to a least 2809.75. Although the upside penetration of the 2745.88 'midpoint pivot' was slight, it should be sufficient to keep the buying momentum going in the days ahead.  There are many ways to get long for the ride, but the one-size fits all recommendation would be to buy a pullback to the green line (2714.00), stop 2680.75.  This implies entry risk of about $1700 per contract, and so I am not recommending the trade to the faint of heart or those with accounts under $25,000. But the initial risk can be reduced to perhaps $50-$75 theoretical using alternative entry set-ups such as 'camouflage' or 'counterintuitive'.  Stay close to the chat room if you're interested, since many who frequent the room are familiar with these tactics. They can be useful for circumventing the possibility that the futures will move higher without pulling back to the green line.

Although the Dow fell 254 points on Tuesday, you can see that the selling inflicted precious little damage on the E-Mini S&Ps. They would need to fall to the green line to trigger a 'counterintuitive' short, and that is what I expect to happen. I usually wait for Hidden Pivot levels to get hit before I hazard such predictions, but I am so cautious most of the time that I hope you'll pardon me just this once for going out on a limb, even if I'm wrong.  Actually, I am prepared to turn hell-of-bullish if the futures surprise by rallying above the 'external' peak at 2763.00 (see inset), especially within the next two or three days.  Since getting short with a sell-top at 2695.66 would imply entry risk of nearly $3000 per contract, I would suggest doing so only with a 'camouflage' set-up. Stay close to the chat room for guidance on this in real time, assuming the signal hasn't been triggered in the dead of night. Once decisively below the green line, the March contract would become an odds-on bet to reach 2637.16, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support associated with a target at 2520.16. If that last target is achieved, the Dow, currently trading for around 24,964, would be nearer 23,000.  There's a bigger, bearish pattern that could conceivably be in play if the futures close beneath 2579.41 for two consecutive days. Its target is 2404.66, which would equate to a drop in the Dow of around 3000 points. _______ UPDATE (Feb 21, 6:04 p.m.): Today's FOMC-induced selloff tripped a 'counterintuitive' short at the green line (2695.66) with immediate downside potential to at least 2637.16, the Hidden Pivot midpoint. Seasoned Pivoteers will notice, however, that the futures ended the day in a good position to set up a 'counterintuitive'

The futures rallied 50 points off their lows Thursday, topping a single point from the 2737.75 target I'd sent out to subscribers the night before.  At the time, I'd suggested getting long with a 'mechanical' bid at the green line; alas, the pullback from overnight highs didn't even come down to the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 2682.38.  Even so, those who drilled down to the very lesser charts in search of a 'camouflage' entry setup as I'd advised were rewarded with a trade signaled as early in the rally as 2692.25.  The trigger point is shown here, and getting long would have risked just 1.00 point ($50) theoretical per contract. So where are the futures headed next?  To at least 2758.88, as far as I can surmise. Expect a potentially tradable pullback from that Hidden Pivot, but if it is decisively exceeded or the futures close above it for two consecutive days, it would put a 2988.75 target in play. That would be 115 points above the old record high -- equivalent to 1000 Dow points. _______ UPDATE (Feb 18, 5:08 p.m. EST): Friday's rally peaked within four points of the 2758.88 resistance, but this caused no change in my guidance.

The futures are within easy distance of a clear and obvious target at 2708.50 noted here previously. The nutty dive before the opening did not affect my outlook, although it did generate an alternative target at 2737.75 that should be used if the lower number is exceeded intraday by more than 2.50 points or the futures close above it for two consecutive days. The chart shows the higher target. It also implies that a 'mechanical' bid at the green line (2654.69) could be used to get long, stop 2627.00. Since the initial risk would be more than $1300 per contract, I'd recommend using the mechanical signal to set up a 'camouflage' entry on the lesser charts. Stay close to the chat room if you seek guidance on this in real time.

Today's chart is the one I've been trading for the last week.  It is bearish, with an unfulfilled downside target at 2492.75 and a worst-case low of 2377.25. If you play it strictly by the Hidden Pivot rule book, the futures became a 'mechanical' short when they rallied to the green line (2668.25) near the end of Monday's session. Since the trade calls for a stop-loss at 2727.00 that would risk nearly $3000 per contract initially, I would tend to use charts of much smaller degree, 'camouflage'-style, to pare the risk of getting short to more like $60-$100 theoretical. I offer the chart not for your explicit trading guidance, but to allow you to see more clearly the bearish framework within which the rally from Friday's low has proceeded. I am not persuaded strongly either way as to whether a bear market has begun, although my gut instinct leans in that direction at the moment. I would feel more strongly about it if: 1) the mechanical short from 2668.25 goes on to become a big winner; and, 2) the implied downdraft easily exceeds the 2492.75 target. In any case, I will continue to trust my technical runes above all, since they are free of the emotions and dubious citations of fact that are dominating public debate right now. From a practical standpoint, getting a good read on the bull/bear will require paying attention to one simple piece of evidence, to wit: If downtrending, ABC-type corrections start to exceed their 'D' targets, and upward ABC patterns start to fall short of theirs, that would shorten the odds that we are indeed in a bear market. Stay tuned if you care. _______ UPDATE (Feb 13, 8:17 p.m. EST): Despite the bearishness of the analysis above, it's possible to interpret Tuesday's price action

Friday's bounce seemed impressive. However, from a technical standpoint it reminded me of the movie hero who has taken a bullet through the middle of his chest but still manages to sprint to his girlfriend's open arms before dying. In this case the fatal bullet in the chest is the E-Mini S&P's dip beneath the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 2552.00 that is key to interpreting the chart. Typically, when the midpoint support has been decisively exceeded as it has been here, it means the dominant trend is likely to continue to the next level. That would imply a fall to at least 2464.63, the pattern's 'secondary pivot'.  That is what I currently expect, notwithstanding the fact that the March contract rebounded a spectacular 107 points Friday in under two hours. The chart knows nothing of the hubris and high-fives that swept Wall Street and the news media at the closing bell.  I'll put my money on the chart, though, stipulating that to negate my very bearish target, the futures would have to close for two consecutive days below the red line without having exceeded 2726.75.  Even then I would be reluctant to sound the all-clear, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it.

The 2609.75 Hidden Pivot target we used to stay ahead of Thursday's avalanche gave way at day's end, implying the plummeting S&Ps probably have further to go, possibly significantly further, before they hit bottom.  I'd suggest using the 2419.00 target shown as a next-to-worst-case target. A fall to that level would equate to a 1700-point plunge in the Dow to 22,000. It will become more likely to be achieved if the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 2572.88, is decisively breached. There are two logical, alternative possibilities: 1) the futures reverse from the low they made on Thursday just inches from 2572.88; or 2) the 'secondary' pivot at 2495 eventually breaks their fall.  Any one of the three 'hidden' supports could turn things around, but a decisive breach of one would portend more slippage to the next.  Please note that my absolute worst-case low for this increasingly noteworthy sell-off is 2377.25. It is based on using the highest possible point 'A' on the chart, the record 2878.50 print on January 28.