E-Mini S&P

The good news is that trades using our proprietary 'counterintuitive' entry technique have been working. By this I mean to say they are routinely getting buyers from trade-entry points to midpoint Hidden Pivots, where partial profits can be taken to reduce exposure. The not-so-good news is that none of these rallies are reaching their 'D' targets. This not only limits our potential gains, it also increases the number of trades where the best we can hope for is to break even. Even so, it is worth our continuing effort, since each minor-trend entry could conceivably be the one that puts us aboard a major breakout. The futures have been mired in a consolidation for a month, and sooner or later they will either take off like a rocket or sink like the Titanic. We can't know with any great confidence which will occur, however, or when, but as long as we can continue to speculate on one outcome or the other with risk held to a minimum, it behooves us to keep trying. To that end, I've labeled the ABC pattern that we should be trading now (see inset). It is distinctively bullish and promises to deliver a rally that kow-tows precisely to Hidden Pivots.  All of which suggests that we should favor 'mechanical' entries in the days ahead. The chat room is well on top of them, and you should therefore tune to the discussion for tips and guidance in real time. _______ UPDATE (Jan 12, 8:38 p.m. EST): Three straight days have featured a Whoopee Cushion bounce around mid-session, each originating from a low where bottom-fishing would have been less than appealing.  Now, however, a 'counterintuitive' entry using the 2239.50 low recorded on January 3 as a point 'A' could still offer us a chance to get long

As last week ended, buyers looked to be developing thrust for a push to the 2324.00 target shown. This would equate to a 400-point rally in the Dow Industrials that would put the blue chip average well above the supposed 20,000 barrier.  Friday's stall precisely at the 2276.00 'midpoint Hidden Pivot' implies that if and when buyers move the futures decisively above it -- meaning by at least three points -- getting to 2324.00 will become an odds-on bet. We'll look to trade this forecast in both directions:  first by getting long for the ride north; then shorting at or very near the target with a tight stop-loss. The top of Friday's moderate rally exceeded the target by 1.00 point, but that is not quite sufficient for us to infer that a run-up to 2324.00 is a done deal. However, assuming the uptrend resumes on Monday and the midpoint resistance becomes support, we'll attempt to get aboard with as little risk as possible, presumably by using a 'mechanical' bid or a 'counterintuitive' entry trigger.  If you want to see these tactics at work in real time, tune to the chat room, since there are usually at least a dozen traders in the room who have mastered them. If the trade becomes a 'go', it will be posted on The Scoreboard in timely fashion so that all subscribers can take advantage. _______ UPDATE (Jan 9, 8:37 p.m. ET): The futures are in a weak decline in after-hours trading after buyers failed to surpass 2276.00. I posted a 'mechanical' buy intraday but subsequently scratched it rather than face a possible swoon engineered by DaBoyz overnight or on the opening bar. They will need a running start to hit new highs in any event, but they'll need to do it without an assist

Traders opened the new year with headless-chicken feints in both directions, but when the dust settled bulls appeared to hold a small edge. (See inset for my short-term forecast, with a precise target.) The ho-hum outlook would improve significantly if and when the March contract pushes decisively past 2270.00 or closes about that Hidden Pivot resistance for two consecutive days.  The target was ten months in coming, so we shouldn't expect it to give way easily. The futures have been stalled beneath it since mid-December, looking for any kind of news that might spook bears into covering short positions. Short-covering panics are the main source of buying power capable of taking out heavy supply and prior peaks, but it is always unpredictable as to what news will trigger them, and when. In the past, the news invariably involved the Fed's serial postponement of promised tightening for...years. The idiotic, will-she-or-won't-she game could come into play once again, since the Fed, by way of 'managing our expectations', has said recently that it plans to tighten perhaps three times in 2017.  However, unless the economy lurches back to life, that will prove to be an idle threat, much as it has been for nearly ten years.  Does loosening have a chance? Maybe. Although it could take several months for the U.S. economy to go slack enough to allow Yellen & Co. to back off their rate-hike promise, this could happen much sooner if the stock market were to take a hellacious dive out-of-the-blue. At that point the Fed would be talking about easing, even if it would be too late to lift stocks. _______ UPDATE (Jan 4, 7:46 p.m. ET): Today's rally performed exactly as expected, topping within ticks of the 2266.00 Hidden Pivot target noted here yesterday. Can buyers now summon the

Long-time subscribers may have noticed that the E-Mini S&Ps have smartened up recently, reversing direction not at Hidden Pivot supports and resistances as they should, but all too often from somewhere in-between. It took the math majors and algos a decade to catch on to this useful feature of the ABC pattern. That they finally were able to crack the Hidden Pivot code recalls the infinite monkey theorem: Sit a thousand chimpanzees at typewriters for an infinite number of years, and one of them will eventually type Hamlet.  And so they have. This means we'll need to alter our tactics when trading this particular vehicle, which is the most over-scrutinized, over-traded and over algo'd of them all.  Doing so will require using patterns that aren't quite so obvious as the one shown (see inset) -- that are too gnarly for trading machines to discern. We should be grateful for the challenge this will present, since it'll keep us on our toes while bringing us opportunities that don't require bumping heads with trade-desk rabble and the hoi-polloi. Welcome to 2017! _______ UPDATE (Jan 3, 12:08 a.m.): Tonight's rally will start to look convincing if it can get past p=2246.25, a midpoint Hidden Pivot on the lesser  charts that is tied to a 2252.00 target.

Bulls have made zero progress after slightly exceeding the 2270.00 rally target shown nearly two weeks ago. Because the target had been ten months in coming, and because the pattern that created it is so clear, we should treat the stall as a possible prelude to a significant decline. It was reason enough to take profits on any contracts held on the way up -- a strategy we employed with a tracking position we'd held from around 2185.  Now I am suggesting getting short, albeit cautiously, since the TrumpSanta rally appears nearly spent. We should look to do this later in the week, since, if there's a tone change and a big selloff coming, it's likely to begin very early in the new year rather than at the end of this one._______ UPDATE (Dec 27, 7:46 p.m. ET): Zzzzzzzz. Today's Whoopee Cushion bounce generated a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart (A=2258.00 at 6:00 a.m.), but I doubt whether any C-D follow-through will get past the still-undetermined midpoint Hidden Pivot -- especially since buyers stalled today for the umpteenth time at 2270.00.

The focus of Wednesday's tutorial session was a prospective short that triggered at the green line shortly after the class ended.  You'd have needed to be on the three-minute chart to initiate the trade in the way I'd suggested, but here's the relevant pattern for anyone who's interested: a=2265.25 (3:03 p.m. ET); B=2261.00 (3:39); and C=2263.00 (3:45). The chart shown provides a bigger picture, with Hidden Pivot levels that can be used Wednesday night and Thursday to go long or short enroute to D=2240.00. That target will be well in play if p=2254.75 gives way, but doesn't negate the appeal of bottom-fishing at p if you've been short from above it or are opening a new position. Incidentally, I posted the same chart in the chat room at 11:51 before the breakdown, along with the following note:  'Here is the pattern controlling the E-Mini at the moment. You may rely on it -- precisely -- if the futures start to fall.' _______ UPDATE (Dec 22, 7:24 p.m. ET): Bears cracked 2254.75, then went nowhere. They'll struggle even harder to hold this gas-bag down on a Friday ahead of a three-day weekend.

We rode a tracking position in the December contract to within an inch of the recent top, logging a theoretical gain of nearly $9000 on the trade. However, I am recommending shorts from the 2270.00 rally target shown only to those of you who held long positions at least part of the way up, or who are comfortable with using the 'camouflage' technique to get short at these levels. The expertise to do so is nearly always present in the chat room, and that is therefore where you should seek guidance if you're keen on getting short. As you can see, last week's record high at 2273.00 exceeded by just a hair (3.00 points, actually) a target that had been ten months in coming. It's no stretch to think that the high could prove to be a very important one, perhaps even marking the end of the bull market begun in March 2009. However, we will assume no such thing for the time being, since we do not pretend to have a crystal ball.  But if the futures were to close for two consecutive days above 2270.00, or trade more than 5.00 points above it intraday, I would infer that another major bull leg is about to unfold. A 2417.50 rally target would then obtain -- equivalent to around Dow 21000. As things stand, a pullback now to 2223.00 would in theory be a 'mechanical' buy for a ride to that number. ________ UPDATE (Dec 19, 9:37 p.m. ET): A tedious scuddle sideways on Monday did nothing to change the current outlook. A decisive push past the 'secondary pivot' at 2275.69 would signal that buyers are about to make a run at 2309.50, a rally target broached here earlier and my nearest significant price objective.  Alternatively, a breach to the

The March contract on Tuesday exceeded a long-term target at 2270.00 by three points, a  seemingly modest feat that could have very bullish implications going forward. Although the small overshoot was not sufficient for us to regard the 2270.00 Hidden Pivot resistance as conquered, the slight breakout should be regarded as a shot across the bow of bears who might be looking to get short at these levels or to hang onto existing short positions.  They could breathe a little easier if the day's record high at 2273.00 endures and the futures fall beneath 2259.50 on Wednesday. But if buyers instead push this vehicle still higher and close it above 2270.00, that would be warning shorts to dive for cover. There is a corresponding target at 2299.00 for the December contract, in which we hold a single-contract tracking position that is showing a theoretical gain of about $8000 after adjusting for partial profits taken on the way up.  But even if the December futures stall and reverse from 2299.00, the March contract would at that time be trading a decisive 25 points above its 2270.00 target. This would have quite bullish implications into year's end, at least. Traders should use the pattern shown to exploit any further strength Tuesday night or Wednesday. It shows a minor rally target at 2283.75 that can be exploited with a 'mechanical' entry at either the red or green line. If you're unsure about how this tactic works, stay tuned to the chat room, since quite a few subscribers have been actively trading the E-Minis. As always, an easy push past clear Hidden Pivot resistance should be taken as a sign that the trend will continue at least to the next -- in this case to at least 2309.50 (30-minute chart, A= 2075.25 on 11/9;

Switching to the March E-Mini S&P makes clear that it is much closer to a potential major top than the December contract. The latter still has about 30 points of running room before it hits a 2299.00 target, and the stop-loss I've advised for the single contract we still hold (as a tracking position, with a paper gain so far of about $8000) still obtains. However, I will treat the March contract as a separate case, since its chart, which is flashing red, demands no less.  Indeed, the feeble distribution rally to 2264.75 engineered by DaBoyz Sunday night on vaporous volume brought the March contract close enough to the 2270.00 target shown for us to infer that the sensational bull move of 2016 may have climaxed. In any case, I'd be very surprised if the futures were to blow past this number, a major Hidden Pivot resistance. That means I'll be intently focused on the corrective move from Sunday's top, since it has the potential to snowball into something BIG. Short-term traders are advised to shift to a bearish bias, given the fact that a major rally target ten months in gestation has come within 5.25 points of being fulfilled. Since the foregoing is not chiseled in stone, we should allow for an alternative scenario, as follows: If the March futures were to push decisively past 2270.00 in the next 3-4 days, that would signal more upside to the 2308.25 'secondary' Hidden Pivot of an ABC pattern projecting as high as 2403.25 (Daily chart, A=1796.20 on 2/11/16): B=2176.50 on 8/23/16; and C=2023.00). More immediately, however, traders should focus on the 15-minute chart, which turned bearishly impulsive Monday with a 2246.75 print at 12:15 p.m. (Note: The hourly chart is still positive and would need a print at 2227.50 to turn