E-Mini S&P

The futures swooned Monday to a low that negated the 2375.75 rally target we'd been using. That benchmark was small potatoes, and the fact that the June contract wasn't able to achieve so very modest a goal after three days of trying suggests that buyers are a little more fatigued than may be obvious. Granted, they did waft this brick into the close, recouping most of the modest losses suffered earlier in the session. But we should keep our guard up on Tuesday nonetheless with a dose of skepticism. The first clue that bears might be about to shed some of their wonted timidity would come on a decisive downside penetration of the 2346.63 midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown.  The pattern is tradable in all the usual ways, short or long, but for starters night owls could use a 2346.75 bid, stop 2345.75, to bottom-fish. If the order fills, you'll be on your own. ________  UPDATE (Apr 4, 9:25 a.m. ET): Overnight, the futures took a 4.50-point bounce from within two ticks of the hidden support I'd flagged above; then they relapsed. Since I don't know how I would have traded this one myself, I won't presume to know how you may have traded it. Regardless, the 2335.75 downside target is very much in play, notwithstanding the so-far weak short-squeeze DaBoyz are attempting to stir up ahead of the opening bell.

Friday's flatulence put a disappointing end to an otherwise impressive week that began with a wrenching, two-day short-squeeze. We'll likely know by Sunday night whether the weakness is serious, but the failure of buyers to reach the minor, 2375.75 rally target shown in the chart was not a healthy sign.  Bulls could negate it with a push past it that also clears the 2378.75 'external' peak that I've labeled. Alternatively, if the futures were to fall beneath C=2348.75 without having reached the rally target, that would signal probable weakness for at least the next two days. And if they should fall without having exceeded last week's 2366.75 high, expect the downtrend to hit 2336.25 before the trend reverses.

Tuesday’s ballistic surge reamed bears a new orifice. It also left no room for doubt about which direction the futures will be headed for the remainder of the week. Accordingly, I will now ask you to consider a rally pattern that implies new all-time highs are coming, probably within the next 7-10 days. If the 2439.00 target is reached, that would equate to a Dow rally of about 800 points. There’s always a chance the 2378.38 midpoint pivot (see inset) will stop the rampaging herd in its tracks. But I wouldn’t encourage betting on it. Instead, we’ll focus on buy-side opportunities in the days ahead, using the green, red and pink lines as needed to set up some low-risk entry triggers. Stay tuned to the chat room for guidance in real time, since there are more than a few Pivoteers who will know how to make hay with such a promising picture. _______ UPDATE (Mar 29, 7:28 p.m. EDT):  There was just enough buying interest today to torture bears with a steady drip...drip...drip of upticks. The rally projects to 2375.75 most immediately (click here for chart), although we should keep the much bigger picture in mind, tied to the 2439.00 target given above, if the futures continue to push through lesser targets with ease. Night owls can buy a dip to the green line (2355.50) 'mechanically', but we'll want to consider a 'camouflage' alternative if this occurs during regular trading hours. If you do the trade, be sure to take a partial profit at p=2362.25. _______ UPDATE (Mar 30, 5:23 p.m.): Any subscriber who followed the simple advice above, placing a bid at the green line, could have come away with a profit of as much as $500 per contract. The trade could have been initiated at any time between

Bears were their own worst enemy Monday, allowing themselves to get caught in a short-squeeze frenzy that recouped nearly all of the exhilarating, 25-point plunge that had begun the day. When stocks where hitting their lows in pre-dawn trading, it was apparent that the poor mugs couldn't believe their own good fortune. If only they could have kept their cool.  Even so, the panic-induced bounce failed to generate much of an impulse leg on the hourly chart (see inset), and that's why the 2309.50 downside target sent out Sunday night remains intact, at least in theory.  The futures would become a 'mechanical' short if they hit the green line Monday night or Tuesday; however, because the opening will always be unpredictable, I'm not recommending the trade unless it's initiated via either of two risk-averse entry tactics we use: 'camouflage' or 'counterintuitive'. Stay tuned to the chat room for guidance, since at any given time, there are quite a few Hidden Pivot experts who will know just what to do.

Friday's erratic behavior left the futures bound for the bearish, 2310.00 target shown.  However, because the bottom of the session's swoon did not breach the 2333.00 midpoint pivot decisively, bulls will have a fighting chance to turn things around Sunday evening or Monday morning. That would require a push above 2356.00 to negate the pattern and its target. Meanwhile, the rally back up to the green line late as the week drew to a close tripped a 'mechanical' buy signal in theory, stop 2356.25, but we'll let it pass, since there's no predicting what kind of mood traders will be in now that the focus of their recent obsessions, Trumpcare, has been taken off the table. I may update Sunday night if there's significant upward movement, but unless that occurs, you can use the 2310.00 target as a minimum downside objective.

Tuesday's downdraft crushed the 2342.50 Hidden Pivot support, implying that more weakness is coming. Bulls are unlikely to go down without a nasty fight, however, so expect some wild swings. The gyrations cannot but be tradable, but I would suggest executing your orders using 'camouflage' entry signals generated on charts of five-minute degree or less.  The selloff was bearishly impulsive on the daily chart, since it exceeded the required internal and external lows without a correction. If the downtrend were to continue on Wednesday, surpassing an 'external' low at 2332.00 recorded on February 17, it would increase sellers' imputed power. ________ UPDATE (Mar 22, 8:38 p.m. EDT): If that was the most energetic bounce bulls can muster, then lower prices are coming.  Buyers would have to hit 2382.50, and soon, to turn things around._______ UPDATE (Mar 23, 8:09 p.m.):  The will-they-or-won't-they news on the healthcare front may have lost its power to drive this vehicle significantly higher, so look for the organic weakness that has prevailed in recent weeks to continue. If shorts can keep their cool -- by no means a foregone conclusion, they'll be in good shape. Click here for a fresh chart.

We're dealing with many crosscurrents, including a major rally target at 2403.00 that the futures came within six points of achieving three weeks ago. It's not possible to say with confidence right now whether this feint will prove to have been the elusive Mother of All Tops. However, there is no question that the S&Ps are showing signs of fatigue.  Today's chart shows this in the form of a minor rally pattern whose target coincides with the big-picture target. The E-Minis have struggled to reach it, but until such time as they  dip beneath the pattern's point 'C' low at 2351.00, the target will remain viable in theory.  The futures would become a 'mechanical' buy, stop 2350.75, if they come down to 2364.00, but I'll instead suggest watching from the sidelines and -- if you're a permabear -- cheering the futures on if the stop-loss is hit.

Today's chart (click on inset) is persuasive on the matter of whether the S&Ps are likely to move higher. This seems probable, although not necessarily right away. The June E-Mini contract has pushed past a clear Hidden Pivot target at 2381.75, implying under our rules that it is being acted on by a pattern of larger degree. The rally target of that larger pattern lies at 2469.75, a 94-point thrust that would equate to a Dow move of about 800 points. Even so, we bought DIA puts at these levels because a target of even larger degree had been reached within two points. I like the odds, because the raging bull has been acting tired lately and even a few days of moderate selling could double the value of puts that subscribers acquired for an average 92 cents. Putting aside the technical ephemera of the Hidden Pivot Method, you can simply look at the chart and sense that it is saying "Short me if you dare!"  Of  course, its glowering menace would vanish if next week the broad averages were to collapse. That will always be a possibility. But when you bet on it as we have, the wager should be small. I am no seer, just a technician and trader with a firm handle on the odds. Even so, I cannot make the claim that this market is incapable of surprising me. The scary fact is that it is well capable of surprising us all.  Still more scary is that that's exactly what it is fixing to do.

Thursday's gratuitous ups and downs did not alter my forecast of a rally to the 2403.00 target shown. However, because the peak of the intraday swings failed to reach the pink line  (a secondary Hidden Pivot at 2390.00), and also failed to exceed the 'external' peak at 2394.25 labeled in the chart, the short-term bearish case deserves a little more deference than it did at Wednesday's close. Regardless, a move to the target on Friday should be shorted with a stop at 2405.25, since it closely coincides with a nearly-achieved target of much greater magnitude that I'd noted here earlier.