E-Mini S&P

The futures impaled a clear Hidden Pivot resistance at 2356.25, surpassing April 12's 'external' peak at 2356.50 in the process to generate a robust impulse leg on the intraday charts. Clearly, bulls are in great shape to end the week on an upswing, although it may require a soft opening to prevent stocks from getting too juiced at the bell to attract buyers. I have no 'easy' trade to offer overnight, since it's impossible to predict where the point 'C' low of the pattern shown will occur. It looks promising nonetheless and would become still moreso for tripping a buy-stop entry if DaBoyz open this vehicle moderately lower, then reverse it suddenly in the first five minutes of the session.

A 2304.25 downside target remains valid in theory, but sellers have been looking so timid lately that we'll go instead with the minor uptrend at the rightmost edge of the chart (see inset) for Wednesday. It projects to 2353.25, a very modest target that may still be out of reach if DaBoyz don't get help from short-covering bears. My gut feeling is that with mortgage applications data scheduled for release ahead of the opening bell, bears may not feel like doing any heavy lifting for the bad guys. And if the mortgage data is surprisingly downbeat, as why should it not be with rates significantly off their lows and home prices in the stratosphere, then you can return your focus to the 2304.25 target.  Please note as well that any selloff would have a chance to bounce from 2314.00, an additional HP support derived from an alternative A at 2378.75 on the hourly chart. _______ UPDATE (Apr 19, 8:04 p.m. ET): After enduring today's Punch-and-Judy show, I see little tradable value in pretending I give a rat's ass where this thing is going next. Even if I'm right and it falls to 2304.25, that's hardly a guarantee we'll be able to make 'easy' money on the move.

Monday's constipated short-squeeze ended with the futures hovering just above last Thursday's peak. Thus did a tiresome rally generate a bullish impulse leg on the intraday charts, although not on the daily.  Under the circumstances, my outlook and trading bias for the very near-term will necessarily be bullish, but with a cautious eye toward the 2304.00 downside target identified in yesterday's tout. It will remain in play until such time as 2375.00 has been exceeded to the upside. Night owls may be able to catch a possible next leg up using the 'camouflage' pattern shown to reduce the risk. If the eventual point 'C' low falls within a few ticks of A=2342.00, you should jump on the trade 'counterintuitive'-style.

The most recent forecast got the downtrend right, but also an intraday low that came within two points of the 2326.50 target I'd flagged the night before. I'd suggested bottom-fishing there because it stood to be easier than staying short for the ride south. This proved to be the case, since the decline was punctuated by two gratuitous rallies that would have made for a stressful day. Before the futures made their final low at 2324.00, they took a five-point bounce from 2326.00 -- two ticks below my target -- that could have been worth as much as $250 per contract to anyone who followed my guidance.  At that time, in the chat room, I advised subscribers to take the money and run, since it would have been risky to hold a long position over the three-day weekend. Looking just ahead, because the bearish abc pattern that produced the 2326.50 target was as clear and clean as they come, we should infer from the slight overshoot that still lower prices are coming.  We shall see, but in the meantime I'll have no trade recommendation for this vehicle ahead of Monday's opening. _______ UPDATE (Apr 16, 9:20 p.m. ET):  Because the futures slightly exceeded our 2326.50 target on Thursday, we should presume that still lower prices are coming. If this is correct, they should fall to the 2304.25 target shown once p2=2321.94 has been decisively breached.

This week's thrashing, gratuitously stupid price action has been bearishly impulsive, albeit subtly so. Notice that the intraday low on Tuesday at 2333.25 (see inset) slightly exceeded the 2333.50 low recorded on March 28. That has allowed me to draw a mildly -- and presumably trustworthy -- bearish ABC pattern that projects over the very near term to 2326.50. It will be tougher to get short for the ride than to bottom-fish at what looks to be a promising Hidden Pivot support. Accordingly, I'll recommend bidding 2326.75 for a single contract, stop 2325.75. You'll be on your own if the order fills, but I am suggesting this trade only for those who know how to manage single-contract risk for a trade that initially has gone your way. _______ UPDATE (Apr 13, 3:55 p.m.) In the final minutes of the trading week, the futures have made a low two ticks beneath the 2326.50 target I'd flagged for subscribers last night. Surprise surprise.  They've taken a five-point bounce since, and more power to you if you bottom-fished as I'd suggested. However, I would not advise taking this position home over the weekend. As noted in the chat room a moment ago, you should take the money and run.

DIA is on a 'counterintuitive' buy signal tripped in the opening minutes of Tuesday's session. With an upbeat close, the ETF looked like an odds-on bet to reach the 206.83 midpoint Hidden Pivot Wednesday morning. My gut feeling is that the rally's potential is limited, and that's why we're focused on shorting into moderate strength. Accordingly, I'll recommend bidding 0.68 for four April 21 205 puts, day order. This price should be do-able if DIA rallies hits the red line. I've pegged the bid to a trendline that has caught two lows over the last week. I've also allowed for the fact that this is a four-day week, shortened by the Good Friday holiday. This means premiums for options expiring the following Friday will begin their death dive Wednesday afternoon, and that's why you shouldn't pay up. I'm not suggesting a stop-loss for the puts because I'd rather take them home over the weekend than blow them out for bupkus if DIA ends the day at D=208.71. That'd be another tempting place to get short, so there's no point in abandoning the position. _______ UPDATE (Apr 12, 8:18 p.m. ET): Two days of feeble price action has further distanced DIA from the 206.83 rally target where we'd hoped to buy some puts. We won't chase them, but you can still plan to bid them in case DIA surprises on Thursday by rallying to the target. You'll probably need to raise the bid a smidgen from 0.68, since the options look like they will trade no lower than around 0.75-0.80 unless DIA moves significantly higher.

The futures have been stuck in a tight range for two weeks, inflicting pain, tedium and frustration on bulls and bears alike. The snarky feints that pass for price movement these days could challenge even the nimblest of day traders. With the bull market now in its ninth year,  however, we should seek to leverage the rallies rather than the declines. At the moment, that means focusing on the pattern shown and its 2439.00 target. There's little reason to think the futures won't get there, since they haven't failed to reach an important rally target since 2008. Pivoteers will notice that the futures have been on a mechanical 'buy' signal since last Monday, when they returned to the green line after hovering well above it for a week. In retrospect, we should be glad we didn't get long then, since we'd have been roundly thrashed without having gotten stopped out. Now, we can use the red line to facilitate a 'mechanical ' entry on our terms if and when the time comes, but we should also be prepared to seize the opportunity if the futures take off Sunday evening. A ' camouflage' pattern like the one I've sketched (see inset) would be ideal for this if you work the night shift, so consider the chart a heads-up. _______ UPDATE (Apr 11, 6:45 p.m. ET): More of the same. On the remote chance that the futures actually fall without the obligatory bullish reversal into day's end, you can use 2303.75 as a target.  It can be found on the 60-minute chart, using A=2388.75 from 3/16.

On Wednesday the E-Mini S&Ps tripped a promising 'mechanical' short when they plunged through the green line at 2359.75 (see inset).  This evening, odds of the futures achieving a 2314.00 target 46 points below the trigger point shortened on news that the U.S. had attacked Syria with cruise missiles. I'd flagged a 'mechanical' short from 2359.75 Wednesday night. However, because only one subscriber reported having done the trade, I did not establish a tracking position.  Even so, if you are short from near Thursday's high, I'd recommend taking profits on half the position at p=2344.00. (The futures are currently trading four points lower.) Since the target is sufficiently clear and compelling to use for tightly stopped bottom-fishing, I'd further suggest covering any remaining shorts if and when it is reached. An additional reason for doing so is that, these days, traders are so full of bravado that all-out war in the Middle East is probably good for no more than a few hours of hard selling.

Worried by Fed murmurings, index futures took a spill at day's end after failing by four points to hit a bullish 'trigger' threshold at 2378.75 flagged in a tout sent out Tuesday night. The selloff is mildly impulsive so far on the hourly chart, but a further fall of just five more points from current levels to 2333.25 would significantly increase the power of the downtrend. There are no appetizing trading opportunities at the moment, but this could change overnight. The futures have been down by as much as 8.50 points this evening, but DaBoyz still seem to be groping for a bottom where sellers are exhausted. Wherever that low occurs, it's a safe bet that it will generate a short-squeeze attempt.  If that occurs before the opening bell, it would have bearish implications for Thursday. Incidentally, the June contract was a juicy 'counterintuitive' short at 2359.25 late in the day off this pattern: 60-min, a=2378.75 on March 21.  It's never too soon to start thinking about 'CI' trades in reverse. We've gotten too used to buying the rallies.