E-Mini S&P

Switching to the June contract, we discover a short-term rally target at 2403.00. There are no significant differences relative to the March contract -- other than that Friday's upthrust did not quite touch June's 2377.00 midpoint pivot. However, it came close enough for us to infer that pattern and its four Hidden Pivot levels -- x, , p, p2 and D -- can be used to trade this vehicle and precisely gauge the trend strength. Presently the futures are on a 'mechanical' buy signal from 2364.00 that triggered Friday on the pullback to the  green line. If the line should be hit again, I would not recommend trying to get long there belatedly. For those who are patient, the next such opportunity could conceivably come on a pullback to the red line, a midpoint pivot, but only after it has been decisively exceeded for at least a few bars. Looking at a much bigger picture, note that a rally could hit 2403.00 without exceeding the potentially very important target at 2404.30 that is billboarded above in The Morning Line. It was missed by two points on the last run-up two weeks ago, and I still believe it has strong potential to mark the top of the bull market begun exactly eight years ago. ________ UPDATE (Mar 14, 5:15 p.m.): Today's soporific price action left the forecast and guidance above unchanged.

Friday's fleeting, fake-out surge to nowhere peaked precisely at the 2379.75 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown, implying the pattern can serve as a useful template for trading and forecasting this vehicle as the new weeks begins. The pullback to the green line was a 'mechanical' buy in theory, but we passed up the opportunity because it seemed unlikely that DaBoyz were going to press their luck with a strong close as the week ended.  Sunday night-owls can attempt a mechanical entry nonetheless, stop 2353.75, since this evening's price action looks too gentle to set up a dive to our stop. If the futures forge higher, pushing decisively past 2379.75 intraday, especially in the early going, expect the rally to continue to the 2405.50 target.  That's a potentially important number, since it closely matches a long-term target that I've reproduced in the chat room as an 'epiphany'.  You'll want to get short up there, especially if reversing a long position, but it may also be possible to accomplish this using the put-buying strategy I've advised in the latest DIA tout. I'll be switching to the June contract in any event, but I've stayed with the March for an extra day because of the precise hit at the midpoint pivot.

My gut feeling is that the short squeeze that DaBoyz popped off yesterday's low won't get very far. The chart shown allows for this with a "reverse" ABC pattern (aka 'rABC' in the chat room) where the D target is lower than than point B high. I've never presented such a picture before, and I'll be interested myself to see whether the unambitious pattern's midpoint pivot, 2375.75, contains the move. If not, we might expect the rally to continue to the 2397.50 target. If that number is reached or closely approached, I'll be tempted to take home a short position over the weekend. If you're game but not keen on using a futures position, you could substitute DIA puts with perhaps two weeks left on them. The trade would still look tempting if the futures fall short of D=2397.50.

DaBoyz used an ostensibly bullish payroll number to distribute stock in the opening hour; then, the mild weakness that has prevailed over the last four days resumed. It did no technical damage to the intraday charts, but the immediate picture would darken if the two lows labeled in the chart (see inset) are exceeded on Thursday. Were that to occur, it would add to the evidence that the Trump Rally is feeling more than just minor fatigue. A breach of the lows seems likely, given that the futures went nowhere after tripping a seemingly promising 'counterintuitive' buy signal when they hit the green line early in the session.

Even though there was zero buying enthusiasm yesterday, bears still couldn't put this gas-bag away. Instead, it ratcheted lower an inch at a time, presumably bound for the modest correction target at 2351.25 shown in the chart. I have little doubt that it will be reached, and it may even generate a tradable bounce for players eager to bottom-fish. However, I would encourage this only for night owls who get a piece of the implied 13-point downside via a short position. If the target is exceeded by more than a point, bears could take encouragement, since it would imply that a weak rally thereafter could set up a potentially juicy short.

Bulls and bears duked it out Monday with no clear winner, but I give the latter a small edge for now because buyers were able to recoup only half of the 14-point drop that began the day.  We are in any event using a bigger-picture rally target that lies more than 100 points above, but it will probably have to wait. Of more immediate concern is whether we should place a 'mechanical' bid at the red line or instead wait for a more robust correction down to the green one. I'll suggest the latter, but with the caveat that full-bore corrections that could make buying theoretically easier have not been a feature of the Trump Rally.  Whatever happens, we hold DIA puts to give us some leverage if sellers should unexpectedly grow a pair.

We're using a bull market target of 2478.00 that lies a little more than 100 points above (see inset).  The Dow would be trading just below 22,000 if  it's achieved. In the meantime, the pullback into week's end has been relatively mild so far, and although it could conceivably flash a mechanical buy signal if it continues down to the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 2353.00, any buying we might do there will likely be by way of a less-risky entry technique such as 'camouflage'. But we shouldn't hesitate to get long 'mechanically' if the selling brings the futures down to the green line. My strong gut feeling is that any rally thereupon would reach, at the very least, the pattern's midpoint pivot where we could take a partial profit. To be less technical about it, I'll note that odds of the 2478.00 target's eventually being achieved seem quite good. It could mark the bull market's final lunge, of course, but as things evolve in whatever way they do, we'll try not to dwell too obsessively on the notion of shorting the Mother of All Tops.

The Trump Rally has entered the realm of Awesome, so steady and steep that it could conceivably provide a fitting blowoff for the most spectacular U.S. bull market of them all.  That's what we've all been waiting for, right?  For sure, it will happen, but probably not before the E-Mini S&PS climb at least to the 2478.00 target shown. That would put the Dow at around 21,700.  I have viable targets all the way up to around 25,000, but we'll take them one at a time, since the rally could end suddenly and at any time, presumably in a way that will take most investors by surprise. We bought a few DIA puts intraday at an ostensibly promising and significant Hidden Pivot resistance, but the Indoos shredded their way past it, leaving the options we'd purchased for 1.00 within 15 cents of being stopped out at 0.50. The pattern shown has strong confirmation in the precise dance at the 2353.00 midpoint pivot; moreover, the way in which this erstwhile impediment has been left in the dust puts the odds of a move to 2478.00 at around 90%. Trade it if you dare, but don't get in its way. _______ UPDATE (Mar 2, 7:42 p.m.): A pullback to the red line (see inset), a midpoint pivot at 2353.00, could create a 'mechanical' buying opportunity, provided the pullback meets our criteria. We would use any entry signal generated thereof to fashion a 'camouflage' entry with considerably less risk. Stay tuned to the chat room for guidance in real time.

You can use the pattern shown to catch the next thrust higher, presumably to its 2379.25 Hidden Pivot target. The easiest way to board came earlier today via a 'mechanical' bid placed at the green line.  This evening, the red line 'midpoint pivot' can be used in the same way. Notice, however, that the last five or so bars provide the sort of tradable ABC pattern we look for to initiate very-low-risk entries using the 'camouflage' technique.  The opportunity would ripen if a pullback creating a point 'C' low comes from comes from 2368.75 or lower. I've sketched this by adding a couple of hypothetical price bars at the right-hand edge of the chart.