E-Mini S&P

There are two interesting Hidden Pivot resistances above these levels -- interesting because one of them has the potential to douse February's buying spree, the other quite possibly to end a bull market that in March will enter its ninth year. To give my targets the best chance of working precisely, I will not be sharing these numbers with anyone who is not a paying subscriber. Which is to say, we are about to "go dark" at these critical levels. The first resistance lies at 2359.50, a hair above where the futures topped this morning during holiday-shortened hours.  The chart shows why I am watching this number closely even though the higher target stands to be a bigger deal.  Notice how the futures played hokie-pokey with the red line for nearly two months before finally taking off. This has confirmed the pattern itself and its target. My expectation is that the target will be surmounted, making a further ascent to 2403.30 about as certain as an ostensibly unpredictable event could be. The interesting thing about the second number is that it coincides very closely with the 21,049 target I've been using for the Dow Industrials. As always, I will reserve judgment about the bull market's ongoing health until I've seen how buyers interact with these two Hidden Pivot resistance points.  You should therefore consider this tout a heads-up to prepare yourselves for a potentially important price reversal. Alternatively, if so daunting a 'hidden' resistance as 2403.30 is easily brushed aside, we would need to re-imagine what this bull market is capable of. _______ UPDATE (Feb 21, 9:51 p.m. EST): Next minor stop on the way up: 2368.00. On the 60-minute chart, here are the relevant coordinates: A=2337.75 (2/17); B= 2356.75 (2/20); and C= 2349.00. And yes, for night owls the

Thursday's humdrum price action got nowhere near the 2384.75 rally target we were using (although it's still valid). Bulls will have another chance on Friday to strut their stuff, but I'll suggest using the much less ambitious target shown, at 2357.00, to finish out the week. Because the futures pulled back precisely from the pattern's 2346.88 midpoint pivot, we should expect them to do likewise if they get to 2357.00. As always, Hidden Pivot levels x, p and p2 can be used to set up trades.  A run-up to 2357.00 would become an odds-on bet if p is decisively exceeded to the upside, especially early in the session.  Alternatively, if the futures shock by going lower, look for a tradable bounce from at 2334.25, or 2332.50 if any lower. ______ UPDATE (Feb 20, 11:22 a.m. EST): The futures missed my target by a single tick -- but don't worry, I'm not losing my touch. It happened before I could send out to you Sunday evening the new target required by Friday's gratuitous dip, which exceeded the previous day's low by a single tick.  That lowered the target to 2356.75 -- precisely equal to this morning's high. (See inset, a new chart that was prepared last night. I was unable to publish it because my WordPress publishing tool was temporarily indisposed).

Although the target of this gas-bag's ascent on Wednesday turned out to have been predictable to-the-tick (see inset), trading the rally was another matter. Using the Hidden Pivot Method, the only entry set-up that could be fairly described as a no-brainer occurred at 2340.75, off the very-well-camouflaged A-B impulse leg shown. Otherwise, only brash certitude that the E-Minis were in damn-the-torpedoes mode could have gotten you aboard without stress. Pullbacks were relatively fleeting, and the rally itself was impressive in the way that a mountain goat scampering up a cliff is impressive.  Assuming the heedless, wafting trend continues --as why should you not? -- expect the futures to reach the 2384.75 target we've been using by no later than Friday. A tradable pullback precisely from that number, or alternatively from 2387.50, looks extremely likely to me.

Buyers exceeded my 2333.75 minimum upside objective by a decisive four points on Tuesday, meaning it's time to raise our sights.  We need only slide down to a new point 'A' -- in this case, a 2177.00 low recorded on December 5 (see inset) -- to produce a fresh target at 2384.75 that was noted here earlier.  That would equate to a Dow rally of about 450 points -- no big deal these days, especially if it occurs over the course of a week or so. This target should work, and very precisely. This means that: 1) I am confident it will be achieved; and 2) there is likely to be a tradable pullback from it, give or take no more than a point or two. There is a possibility that the actual high will occur at 2387.50, since there's a slightly lower, alternative point 'A' available on the chart.  This is a small matter, however, since either target will provide a basis for trading with a bullish bias at least until the lower number is reached. In the meantime, we may decide to use a pullback to p or p2 to set up a mechanical entry, so stay tuned to the chat room if you're keen to trade this vehicle.

Banksters and others with a stake in the euro shouldn't get their hopes too high, since the long-term charts point unambiguously to a target just below 82 cents (see inset). There will be rallies, of course, since sellers have been piling onto this no-brainer trade in such preponderance that there will occasionally be no one left to sell. That would appear to have been the case until very recently, two months into a dead-cat bounce that actually tripped a 'mechanical' short-sale signal when it hit the green line two weeks ago. A stop-loss at 1.17121 would ordinarily be required for this type of entry, but I'd recommend lowering to 1.12990, since a print at that price would turn the weekly chart bullishly impulsive. There will also be an enticing play at the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support where the odds will favor a precisely tradable bounce.  I'll keep an open mind if I see uptrending abc patterns of minor degree start to exceed their 'd' targets. In the meantime, with Marine LePen looking like a shoe-on to become France's next president, it is probably safe to treat any rally in the euro, especially a protracted one, as an opportunity to get short.

The modest, somewhat gnarly rally pattern shown looks sufficiently compelling to use for trading and targeting now, even if it lacks corroboration via precise price action at the 2298.00 midpoint Hidden Pivot. Since it provided a 'winning' mechanical trade on last week's pullback to the green line, I'd suggest using the red one now for a belated entry attempt. A bid there, at 2298.00, would take a 2286.00 stop-loss predicated on a 2333.75 target, but you could cut the implied $600 entry risk down to perhaps $50-$75 per contract by using a 'camouflage' entry trigger instead. This would entail jumping on a very minor, uptrending ABC pattern if and when the futures pull back to 2298.00. _______ UPDATE (Feb 13, 10:24 a.m. EST): With no pullback whatsoever, manic buyers have come flying out of the gate this morning, hellbent on 2333.75. I cannot imagine a decisive move past so clear and compelling a Hidden Pivot resistance on the first try. However, if bulls should shock by effortlessly demolishing it, they'll be shooting for 2387.50. That number is tied to a midpoint pivot at 2324.88, so be alert to the possibility of a stall there.

Since November, I've been at pains to reconcile my extremely bullish technical forecast with a gut feeling that the U.S. economy and the stock market are hurtling toward disaster. The housing cycle has peaked, a farm bust looms, big investors are starting to exit the bubble they created in commercial real estate, auto manufacturers will be going up against a record year, and bullish investor sentiment is at a generational extreme. Despite all of this, I've learned to trust my charts above all. And that's why I've stuck for months with a forecast calling for a 1200-point rally on top of the nearly 1000-point rally that occurred in the days after the election. By no stretch am I able to imagine what could be the cause of such a powerful move. Although I have little doubt that the deregulated environment Trump has promised us will significantly benefit business, the stock market would seem to have discounted the most bullish outcome any investor could hope for. Even under the best of circumstances, with Democrats and Republicans miraculously working together to implement Trump's economic policies as quickly as possible, it could still take a year or longer for those policies to have a significant and lasting effect. Despite all of this, my forecast that the Dow will exceed 21,000 is slowly coming true without the benefit of any spectacular rallies. The move has been rather unspectacular, actually, having occurred in the form of tedious stretches lasting for weeks, punctuated by intervals lasting for a week or two where the Dow racks up modest gains of perhaps 100 to 150 points per day. We're in one of those intervals now, and it feels almost as though nothing could cause the trend to reverse, at least not for more than a day or two.

Monday's tedious price action generated a very marginal new high that was not significant enough to alter the current rally target at 2302.25. The 'mechanical' bid I'd advised  did not trigger because there wasn't enough weakness Sunday night to bring the futures down to the 2282.25 midpoint pivot where our bid lay. For now, I'll recommend a mechanical bid once again, but at the green line (i.e., x=2272.25), stop 2262.25. The entry risk on the trade is a theoretical $500 per contract, but there are two ways you can cut that down to size: 1) look for a 'camouflage' entry opportunity on the 3-minute chart if and when 2272.25 is touched; or, 2) use a 'counterintuitive' set-up if the retracement continues down to within a few ticks of (prospective) point A=2270.50. This is shown hypothetically in the chart. _______ UPDATE (Feb 7, 7:36 p.m. EST): Zzzzzzzzzzz. No change in the above, including the 'counterintuitive' (i.e., 'CI') trade advisory. _______ UPDATE (Feb 8, 10:06 p.m.): This snoozefest has become too boring to watch, and so I won't. The picture remains bullish, although we should be alert to a possible swoon, presumably for no good reason. _______ UPDATE (Feb 9, 7:56 p.m.): The 2310.00 target shown (see inset) is now my minimum upside projection and the number for bulls to beat, although it's somewhat puzzling that they couldn't accomplish this modest feat in the throes of Thursday's short squeeze rally.

Although I have Hidden Pivot targets well above these levels, we'll stick with little stuff for now, since the uptrend has been so herky-jerky. Most immediately, that will train our focus on the 2302.25 target shown. I like it because of the way the rally has kow-towed to both the midpoint pivot (p) and the secondary pivot (p2). You can use a mechanical bid at the green line (2272.25), stop 2262.00, but trying it at p=2282.25 might be cutting it too close, since the required stop-loss would be at 2276.00. Even so, and as always, you could use the mechanical signal that would be generated by a pullback to p to set up a 'camouflage' entry thereupon. Finally, night owls have the go-ahead to place a mechanical bid at 2282.25 Sunday evening if it looks like the futures are being coaxed down to that level by the usual sleazeballs. The 2276.00 stop-loss noted above would sill apply.