E-Mini S&P

This latest, charmless short-squeeze began its incessant ratcheting on the opening bell, eventually negating a downtrend that had projected to 2019. In the process, it generated a bullish impulse leg on the intraday charts that suggests bears will be mildly on the ropes when regular-session trading resumes Wednesday morning. Look for DaBoyz to take the futures lower overnight, just as they did early Tuesday morning, in order to dry up selling.  There is quite a bit of supply in the range 2080-2090, however, so don't expect buyers to make much headway, even with help from on high.

A day of grueling chop looks like consolidation on the 15-minute chart (inset), but all of it occurred beneath last Thursday's 2060.00 peak. This casts doubt on bulls' enthusiasm, but it won't likely impede further, upward progress if there are no disturbing headlines to greet the day. A 2019.25 downside target remains valid in theory nonetheless and will remain so as long as 2077.50 is not surpassed. But a move to at least 2070.50 would become likely if the red line (p) is exceeded by more than a couple of points. All of this should be of concern only to the most agile traders, however, since frustrating intraday swings seem to be habitual at the moment.

Friday's feeble short-squeeze left me unpersuaded that the broad averages are about to embark on another bullish tear.  Although the rally generated a weak impulse leg on the 15-minute chart, it failed to surpass any significant prior peaks on the hourly chart (see inset).  Bears, it must be conceded, have not fared much better recently. Indeed, they spent the entire week struggling to achieve a modest downside target at 2029.75 that I'd drum-rolled last Tuesday.  The expected bounce came an hour before Friday's regular session began, off a low that was three ticks above our target. As a result, subscribers were denied an easy opportunity to get on board what could have been a $1200 ride. Even as the futures headed higher, I put out a lower target in the chat room at 2019.25. It remains viable, offering not only a precise price objective for traders who want to short this rally with risk under tight control, but a place to try bottom-fishing with the usual tight stop-loss.

Today's weakness was palpable, and yet bears couldn't put this gaseous hoax away. In the early going, the futures dipped for a couple of hours beneath a Hidden Pivot support at 2053.63 (see inset), implying they would eventually fall to D=2029.75.  But 'eventually' never came. Instead, a weak short-squeeze held this cagey vehicle buoyant until the close, leaving a graphic picture (see inset) that begs for the other shoe to drop. The 2029.75 target will remain viable in any case, provided the point 'C' high of the pattern, 2077.50, is not exceeded to the upside. Traders with the patience to hunker down on the 3-minute bar chart may find opportunity in this, but certainly no easy pickings. ______ UPDATE (May 5, 1:47 a.m. ET): The bearish 2029.75 target flagged above remains valid in theory and can be bottom-fished with a very  tight stop-loss. However, bears struggled so hard on Wednesday to hold this hoax down that we should give the benefit of the doubt to any bullish impulse legs that gestate on the lesser charts. At the moment -- 1:44 a.m. -- this appear to be happening on sub-30 minute charts. _______ UPDATE (7:37 p.m.): Zzzzzzzz. No change: 2029.75 is still my minimum downside target.

The week has begun with a short squeeze that recouped Friday's middling decline and then some. The rally projects to at least 2083.75, the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of a bullish pattern projecting to 2121.75 (see inset). If that last number is achieved, an equivalent rally in the Dow Industrials would tack on about 350 points, surpassing by about 70 points the record-high 18167 recorded on April 20. The broad averages would be in uncharted water at that point, presumably more vulnerable than ever to a mood swing, and that's why we should want to get short up there if we can. But we'll attempt it only if there is a clear Hidden Pivot target to limit our risk. This goal will be best served if we're able to rack up some gains on the way up. Accordingly, traders should look to get aboard with a 'mechanical' bid at any of the three available Hidden Pivot levels: x, p or p2.  You should attempt this only if you are familiar with the simple rules of the 'mechanical' trade. For guidance in real time, stay tuned to the chat room, where there will nearly always be at least a dozen Hidden Pivot Webinar grads who know what they are doing. _______ UPDATE (9:41 a.m.): The futures have been down as much as 16.50 points overnight, and although the selloff has generated a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart, bulls still hold an edge. That's because yesterday's high, which exceeded some 'external' peaks near 2076 from Friday, was more bullish than this morning's selloff is bearish. That would imply that DaBoyz, bending to the ostensible bearishness of some inscrutable event elsewhere in the world, have simply taken stocks down far enough to deplete sellers. The inscrutable event, it would appear, is

Friday's selloff created a strongly bearish impulse leg on the intraday charts. Although the obligatory short-covering rally in the final hour recouped most of the losses, the burden of proof will be on bulls as the week begins. That's because the intraday low on Friday overshot a clear Hidden Pivot support (see inset) at 2047.75 -- usually an indication of more weakness to come.  Alternatively, it would take a push above 2076.00, Friday's high, to prevent some of the recent peaks from becoming collectively a top of at least short-term importance.

Wild as the swings were on Thursday, they didn't alter the 2061.25 correction target disseminated last night via an update to the previous tout. The pattern that produced the target could have been useful to anyone keen on bottom-fishing, since the overnight low, as well as the wackiest bounce of the day, came from within less than a point of its 2069.50 'secondary' Hidden Pivot support. I expect the  last remaining target, 2061.25, to display similar precision. Look for a tradable low there, or possibly even an overnight or intraday bottom. ______ UPDATE (9:37 a.m., from my post in the chat room): The futures are bouncing off p=2063.75 from the 5-min chart (a=2089.75), but the pivot looks to have been sufficiently bruised to suggest the p2=2057.63 is coming -- and maybe even d=2051.50. These targets will remain valid unless 2076.00 is exceeded to the upside.

I'll wait till I hear from subscribers who got long 'mechanically' at p=2082.75 before I establish a tracking position.  In the meantime, the futures were bogged down as last week ended, notwithstanding the fact that a long initiated at p was slightly profitable at the close. For now, if you got on board, use a stop-loss at 2074.75, just beneath Friday's low. The heightened precaution is warranted for two reasons: 1) the futures failed to push decisively above p after the mechanical trade was triggered on Friday; and 2) last week's highs occurred only slightly above a rally target at 2101.75 that we'd been using for several weeks. I am nevertheless offering a higher projection at 2139.50 for one reason: Thursday's 2105.25 peak  exceeded by a single tick the previous all-time high recorded last July. That effectively refreshed the bullish impulsiveness of the daily chart, making any pullback from here corrective and buy-able, at least in theory. Obviously, I am at pains to give the all-clear for bulls, since the futures have been struggling lately for every inch of their gains. Under the circumstances, we shouldn't try to forecast too far ahead. Stick with the intraday charts for now, and pay particularly attention to price action at midpoint pivots in both directions. To the degree they are exceeded, and assuming 'duels' do not develop, that should keep us apprised of the primary trend. _______ UPDATE (April 25, 11:27 p.m. ET):  Rally targets at 2111.13 and thence 2139.50 still obtain, but price action has been too choppy for a buy-and-hold strategy. No subscribers reported using a 'mechanical' entry to get long as I'd suggested, but a buy at 2082.75 triggered on Thursday (or Friday) would have required a 2063.75 stop-loss and a 2139.50 target.  Looking just ahead, a mechanical trade would

The futures notched a new record high on Wednesday, a feat that went largely unnoticed because the S&P 500 cash index fell well shy of the old mark from last July. Although I've been warning bears for weeks to get out of the way, there's no percentage in going out on a limb right now with predictions of fabulous new highs, or perhaps more logically, a stunning collapse. We're in uncharted water, which paradoxically will make it easier to project potentially tradable Hidden Pivot targets. That's because there are no previous highs to the left on the ES charts to draw the attention of other traders and technicians. Accordingly, subscribers should use p, p2 and D (see inset) to place their bets. In a plausible sequence, that might mean: 1) getting long 'mechanically' on a pullback to p; 2) getting long with 'camouflage' at current levels for a push to p2 or D; 3) getting long 'mechanically' on a pullback to p2 after it has been decisively exceeded; and/or 4) exiting at D and getting short there with a tight stop. As always, the best place to seek guidance in real time will be in the chat room. _______ UPDATE (April 22, 12:59 a.m. ET):  If you used option #1 to get long, deploy a 2063.75 stop-loss and hold the position using a price objective of  2139.50. If you have more than one contract, take a partial profit at p=2111.00.