E-Mini S&P

Today's moderate selloff from a high that fell 1.75 points shy of a clear Hidden Pivot is a warning sign that must be heeded. The failure was subtle, to be sure, but it should encourage us to keep an open mind toward the possibility that an important top is in. We'll be better able to judge the odds once we've seen how the ABC downtrend in progress at Thursday's close plays out.  If the futures roll down overnight, exceeding their D target, that would confirm that the weakness is potentially serious. However, if the downtrend reverses from p or higher and the futures go on to exceed the 2168.00 peak (A), bears had better run for cover.  The foregoing is speculative, since the hypothetical pattern I've sketched has not yet created a point 'C' high. It can serve to guide you nonetheless, particularly if you are a night owl looking for an opportune level to bottom-fish or get short.

The 2171.75 target noted here earlier is all we have at the moment, and it will need to be hit or exceeded before we can move on to the next. If the target is easily exceeded, that would return our focus to a more important Hidden Pivot resistance at 2194.00 first broached here when the futures were trading nearly 70 points lower. If patience is not your strong suit, keep in mind that bull markets spend most of their time in trance-inducing tedium, scuddling sideways nearly 90% of the time. The remaining 10% of the time, they are in short-covering rallies, the only source of buying power sufficient to push stocks through supply to new levels. With no news to catalyze a squeeze right now, price action has been turgid. Just a little drivel from Ms. Yellen, however, and we should see the uptrend resume in earnest.  If so, you'll have the targets given above, along with some others noted here earlier, to guide you.

The 2194.00 target that I first featured here a while back is still on our radar and not too distant, even if three days of grueling chop have brought the futures no closer to it. Contemplate the chart (see inset) with a little imagination and an open mind and you could convince yourself that the S&Ps are basing for another bold leap higher. But it is just as easy to see them fixing to dive a hundred points for whatever reason. All of which argues against taking an aggressive stand right now, even if the payoff for being right could be substantial. Most immediately, focusing on the minor ABC trends at the rightmost edge of the chart, the next upthrust could be expected to hit 2171.75, a Hidden Pivot that would become an odds-on bet once the 'secondary pivot' at 2164.63 has been exceeded by more than a point. Alternatively, an unpaused drop exceeding 2139.50 to the downside would be warning of possible trouble.  As always, we'll take our forecasts one day at a time until the futures bolt higher, or lower.

Odds of a run-up to as high as 2313.50 shortened last week when the futures speared a 2147.50 'midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance' associated with the target (see inset). Although the breach amounted to a relatively moderate 20 points, it was sufficient to imply that the target, along with a secondary one at 2230.50, be taken seriously, especially by traders and investors skeptical that the bull market could have so much life remaining. If the target is achieved, it would equate to a Dow rally of about 1300 points. The potential silver lining for permabears is that the 2313.50 pivot is a major resistance that could conceivably put the kibosh on a bull market currently in its 89th month. Even if not, it still looks extremely likely to produce a substantial correction that would be tradable. More immediately, a target at 2194.00 previously identified here can serve as our minimum upside objective for the next 4-7 days. The failed Turkish coup is unlikely to change that, notwithstanding the fact that index futures tanked at the bell Friday on initial reports that Erdogan, Obama's and the Muslim Brotherhood's favorite dictator, had been deposed.

The ABC pattern shown suggests that although the futures sold off by half after rallying sharply overnight, they remain well positioned to achieve a big-picture target at 2194.00 broached here earlier. An even more important target lies at 2313.50 that could conceivably mark the end of the bull market begun in 2009. In any event, we judge the futures' progress toward these benchmarks by scrutinizing charts of lesser degree such as the one shown. The fact that the intraday high at 2168.00 slightly exceeded a 2165.50 Hidden Pivot target is evidence that more upside is coming over the near term. Presumably, it will achieve a 2173.75 target calculated by sliding point 'A' down to the next-lower low at 2081.75 (labeled A1). 'Mechanical' bids that would enable night owls to get long at current levels look like a risky bet at the moment, but we can try to improve our odds in real time with any 'camouflage' opportunities that crop up during Friday's session. For further guidance, stay tuned to the chat room.

Today's rally topped to-the-tick at the 2149.25 target I had drum-rolled earlier, when the futures were trading 20 points lower. I have not established a tracking position, however -- at least not yet -- since there have been no reports in the chat room from subscribers who were either long on the way up, or who got short at the top. Since we don't pretend to have a crystal ball, there is no way of knowing for certain whether the top will endure for a few more hours, or for perhaps weeks, months or even years. We do know, however, that if the futures should push above 2149.25, especially if they do so as soon as tomorrow, they should be presumed headed to at least 2194.00, the next Hidden Pivot resistance in a sequence of rally targets presented here earlier. For the record, the uppermost lies at 2313.50, a major Hidden Pivot that would be a logical place for the bull market to end. More immediately, however, there's potential profit of as much as $2200 per contract for anyone long for the ride to 2194.00, as well as a the possibility of an opportune short from the target itself.  We have a half-dozen ways to get aboard, most of them designed to do so with as little entry risk as possible, so stay tuned to the chat room for guidance in real time if you trade this vehicle. _______ UPDATE (July 13, 8:45  p.m. EDT): The 2194.00 target would be a done deal but for the fact that some trading platforms show slightly different coordinates that yield a 2152.25 target, Wednesday's exact high. Regardless, the minor pattern shown (see inset, a new chart) can be used by night owls to bottom-fish, since the pattern has been confirmed by some precise

So much for my prediction that Friday would be a boring day.  Payroll figures released before the opening showed the U.S. economy to have added 287,000 McJobs in June. DaBoyz took this number and ran with it, short-squeezing the Dow mercilessly for a 250-point gain. The E-Mini S&P surged a corresponding 32 points to 2120.75, a new record that will likely leave bulls in charge when index futures begin trading again Sunday night. Because the rally somewhat exceeded a plain-vanilla Hidden Pivot target at 2118.00 on the hourly chart, a bigger pattern must be at work. It is shown in the accompanying chart and projects to 2149.25. Notice that the ultimate target could lie well above it, since there are three potential point 'A' lows still available if the 'D' target associated with the one in the chart is surpassed. In retrospect, traders could have bought Wednesday's pullback to p=2065.38 'mechanically' with no pain, albeit $4200 of initial risk per contract. The secondary pivot at 2107.31 could similarly serve as a place to get long with a 'mechanical' bid, but there can be no guarantees the futures will pull back to it before they push on to 2149.25.  If they do, and get past that 'hidden' resistance easily, a 2194.00 target would be in play. That is the 'D' Hidden Pivot associated with A=1907.00 (3/1).  The highest target one could project using the daily chart is 2313.50. That comes from A=1787.50 (2/11/16), and if it comes to pass, the Dow would be trading at or not far below 20,000. The related midpoint pivot is 2147.50, so we should look for a possible stall there as well, since it would confirm the largest pattern. Incidentally, the 2313.50 target is not far above one at 2250 that I projected for the June

Betting action on this vehicle was hot and heavy in the Rick's Picks chat room Wednesday, but I'll take even odds that the week ends with asphyxiating tedium. Yes, these are interesting times, and it is always going to be easier to predict that "something" will happen "soon" than that nothing will. I'm with the "nothings," though, at least for the next couple of days.  If it's excitement you want, I'll suggest hunkering down on the one-minute bar chart, where there is almost never a dull moment. I'll be in the chat room to call the play-by-play in any event, so drop by if you like your technical forecasts mixed with a little satire and cynicism. _______ UPDATE (July 7, 5:16 p.m. EDT): Was that an asphyxiatingly tedious day, or what? The futures fluctuated gratuitously for six hours over a  20-point range, ending the day with a net loss of three points. With one breathtakingly boring day over, the forecast above implies there's one more to endure. Even so, night owls can use this pattern on the 30-minute chart to bottom-fish: a=2102.00 (10:a.m.); b=2082.38; and tentative c=2092.50.  The point 'c' high looks likely to be superseded by a higher coordinate, but bottom-fishing can still be attempted at whatever p midpoint support results using a very tight stop-loss. _______ UPDATE (July 8, 11:07 a.m. EDT):  The glue-sniffing chimps who jockey stocks around each day knee-jerked them higher before the opening this morning, responding to June's meaningless, statistically bogus payroll numbers. They showed a supposedly 'strong' job market. This used to mean, at least in the minds of the chimps, that the Fed wouldn't ease, and that stocks should be sold on the news. Not any longer, apparently. With rates already near zero and going nowhere soon, the current vogue of the

If the futures ease lower for the next couple of days, look for a potentially tradable bounce from the red line, a Hidden Pivot midpoint support at 2035.75. It could be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as 1.00 point. The pattern lacks a proper 'one-off' 'A', but everything else about it looks enticing enough for a try.  The futures will likely need a running start from lower levels to take on June 24's record peak, implying that a moderate rally at the opening on Wednesday be viewed as a bull trap and therefore a possible shorting opportunity. If this set-up takes shape, it would be best to exploit it using a downtrending 'camouflage' pattern on the 3-minute chart or less. With somewhat less work, you might also be able to get short at the midpoint pivot or 'd' rally target of a minor abc uptrend.