E-Mini S&P

I identified the 2211.00 rally target shown during this morning's impromptu tech-analysis session and it still looks compelling -- which is to say, looks short-able. However, the 27-point rally it would take to get there is going to look pretty scary to anyone eager to lay 'em out. That's why I would strongly suggest taking the bull trade for the presumptive ride north first, since any profits earned thereof would serve to cushion a wider-than-usual stop-loss for the short. Meanwhile, any of the three labeled lows could set up either a 'counterintuitive' entry or a camouflage one, but the futures would also be signaling a 'mechanical' buy, stop 2165.25, on a pullback to the green line. You could reduce the theoretical entry risk by as much as 90% by using the mechanical signal to create a 'camo' set-up.

I'm tracking a single-contract short with a profit-adjusted cost basis of 2209.00 and a stop-loss at 2186.25.  Today's chart returns us to the big picture, which shows a bull-market target at 2304.75.  A pullback to the red line would be a 'mechanical' buy in theory, but in my estimation a 'mechanical' entry on a further pullback to the green line (2062.31) would be less risky.  We're not bound to this relatively risky tactic, however, since we can 'convert' a mechanical signal to 'camouflage' if and when the opportunity presents itself. That would entail waiting at least until next week, when the futures will have spent sufficient time hovering above the red line to vindicate a mechanical bid.  Meanwhile, based on the robust look of the pattern and the way buyers blew past the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 2143.13 on the first try, I would surmise the following: The bull market could make its ultimate high shy of 2304.75, but I doubt the final turndown would come before p2=2223.94 is achieved. _______ UPDATE (August 21, 11:45 a.m. EDT): No change. Three days of tedious, gratuitous spasms have yet to push the futures any higher than 2184.50, so our short position remains intact.  DaBoyz will keep trying, opportunistically moving this brick higher as soon as conditions favor yet another short squeeze. That is virtually the only source of buying power sufficient to overcome supply when there are no good reasons to own shares. _______ UPDATE (August 22, 7:27 p.m.): Yet another day of pointless thrashing around has changed nothing for us. Rallies haven't been strong enough to reach the 'easy' stop-loss at 2186.25. However, sellers are evidently too enfeebled to push this vehicle down to a just-as-easy 2159.25 Hidden Pivot support based on these coordinates (15-minute): a= 2190.75 on 8/15; b= 2165.50

The futures have fallen five points so far after topping precisely at the 2190.75 rally target (see inset) I'd projected last week.  As far as I can tell, no subscribers were long for the ride north. However, because several of you reported getting short this morning near 2190, and because my instructions to do so were explicit and precise, I've established a tracking position: short two contracts with a 2195.25 cost basis. This price has been adjusted to reflect a partial profit taken on half of an initial four-contract position covered at 2186.25 (as advised in a chat room post at 11:25 a.m.). For now, place a bid at 2181.50 to cover a third contract, and make it o-c-o with a separate order to exit the remainder of our position (i.e., cover two short contracts) via a 2190.75 buy-stop. The rally target was not a major one, but we'll swing for the fences nonetheless if we are left with a single-contract short that gets comfortably in-the-black. ______  UPDATE (August 16, 10:34 a.m. EDT): A nine-point drop overnight to a so-far low of 2177.00 has allowed us to cover a third contract for 2181.50. The short contract or the 25% of the original position that we still hold has an imputed cost basis of 2209.00. For now, use a stop-loss at 2186.25. _______ UPDATE (6:14 p.m.): Let the position ride, since things are going our way (see inset).  We're not quite swinging for the fences yet, but if we were to use a hair-trigger 'impulsive' stop-loss, we'd exit the position on an uncorrected rally exceeding the two numbered peaks shown. _______ UPDATE (August 17, 7:26 p.m.): We'll stick with our plan, meaning you should exit on a stop-loss if 2186.25 is hit. That would leave us with a theoretical profit on

Friday's gratuitous chop left a 2190.75 rally target for the near term unchanged. Precise pullbacks already seen from p and p2 imply that we'll see an equally precise pullback from the target if and when it is reached.  That makes it potentially short-able, but we should be prepared for a push past it nonetheless, since that would signal more upside and justify a bullish trading bias. Alternatively, the futures would be warning of trouble if they close beneath the 'external' low at 2160.50 recorded on 8/5.

[This tout, scheduled to go out last Sunday evening, apparently didn't auto-publish. I am disseminating it now because it offers a bigger picture than the current tout. This week's tedious price action has not altered anything.] Friday's wilding spree easily surpassed my 2173.00 target, implying that a larger bullish ABC pattern is at work. Everything is right with the world, or so Wall Street would have us infer.  The big-picture pattern shown, with an ambitious target at 2313.50, should look familiar. We've been using it since late June to stretch the bullish imagination even as we've grown increasingly skeptical at each new record high. The pattern tripped a 'mechanical' buy signal last week on the pullback to the red line, and the steep climb since suggests that the secondary pivot (p2) at 2230.50 is very likely to be reached no matter how skeptical we are. That target and the one above it should be considered both reliable and precise, meaning tradable pullbacks from each are likely and that, moreover, a decisive move past p2 would make D an odds-on bet. We are not obliged to trust Wall Street's celebratory mood or its judgment, however, and that is why I would suggest keeping the smaller ABC pattern in mind as we monitor the rally's progress in relation to the midpoint pivot (2189.50) and the D target (2237.50). _______ UPDATE (August 11, 7:49 p.m. EDT): This pattern is precisely on track for move to 2190.75, with a potentially tradable pullback from that Hidden Pivot: 60-minute, A=2160.50 on 8/5; B=2183.50 on 8/9; and C=2167.75. Notice the exact hits at p=2179.25; and today, at 2185.00. The retracement to the green line offered a painless 'mechanical' entry, albeit without the customary three-bar pause we usually require.

Three days of futile head-butting have left the futures bruised, winded and ready to fall.  My minimum downside objective for the very near term is 2160.25, a Hidden Pivot support associated with the pattern shown (see inset). If it gives way easily, that would set up a likely test of last week's low at 2141.50. Amidst the excruciating boredom the week has produced thus far, we should be prepared for a very un-boring Friday if the selling gains momentum into Thursday's close.

The stock market has been acting so punk lately that it's time to take a hard look at the quite bullish targets I've put out over the last couple of months. Most immediately, there's the 2313.50 bull-market benchmark shown. Is it still viable? In theory, yes, since the futures would need to fall a further 70 points to negate the point 'C' low of the pattern. In practice, however, the tired slog of the last two weeks is like that ominous cough in the second reel of a Hollywood melodrama.  Even Goldman Sachs is having second thoughts, warning investors to stay out of stocks for the next three months.  The trouble is, there are no investors in this market, only heedless speculators playing with funny money gifted them by the central bank. Do they even care whether U.S. corporate earnings have declined for four consecutive quarters? Not as far as we could tell -- at least until earlier this month, when the broad averages began a wretched limp sideways after a nearly parabolic rise. It still looks like a consolidation nonetheless, and the daily chart is in fact on a 'mechanical' buy signal with the pullback to the red line (see inset). We'll let the opportunity pass, however, since the canny dirtballs at Goldman may be more concerned than they are letting on. Perhaps we're just feeling down because Trevor Story, the Colorado Rockies' phenomenal rookie shortstop, injured his thumb and will be out for the rest of the season. The Rockies are our team, and with Story out of the lineup, their hopes of a wild-card berth may have gone down the tubes.  But putting baseball blues aside, it just feels like there's something really nasty lurking in the wings.  Maybe it has to do with Trump, whose mere

Subscribers who bought the pullback to the green line (i.e., 2159.31) as I'd explicitly advised here Wednesday night could have cashed a $700 winning ticket for an 11-hour hold. Strictly speaking, you'd still be long two contracts from an original four, shooting for the 2181.25 target shown. The stop-loss can be loosened to suit your style, since, presumably, you're playing with the house's money at this point. If the futures do NOT break out to end this deadly-dull week, that will make two consecutive weeks of mostly inside-day tedium. As the foregoing suggests, however, even the dullest markets are tradable. I haven't established a tracking position because no one mentioned the trade in the chat room, but in case you're interested, the same tactic can be applied if the futures push past the red line tonight, then hover above it for at least a few bars before coming back to it. Your stop-loss would be at 2161.75._______ UPDATE (August 1, 2:18 a.m. EDT): No reports? This trade was pretty straightforward and could have produced a profit of as much as $2500 so far for anyone who followed the simple instructions given above. Because no one mentioned the trade in the chat room, however, I haven't established a tracking position.  The original target is still valid, but look for double stopping power, since a lesser pattern projects to 2180.00 (30-minute, A=2157.50 on 7/29 at 10:30 a.m. EDT).

Yet another day of pooch-screwing has positioned the futures for a shot at the modest 2181.25 target shown. Notice that the pattern has been confirmed by a pullback precisely from the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 2166.63. This implies that a thrust to the target would encounter similarly precise resistance and pullback. Night owls can try getting long via a 'mechanical' entry on a pullback to the green line, but if the implied $375 stop-loss seems too rich, I'd suggest attempting a 'camouflage' entry on the one-minute chart or less.