GCG10

We're using a Hidden Pivot at 1090.20 as our minimum retracement target for the near term, although a close look at the hourly chart reveals another at 1094.30 from which the futures could conceivably turn higher.  Either way, the February contract is likely to correct a further 1.8% or so before it would becoming an enticing buy.  Alternatively, buyers would need to push the futures up to 1154.60 today to stampede bears and end this so-far 9.5% correction. _______ UPDATE:  If Gold has bottomed and will not require a pullback to 1090, we needn't wait for an 1154.60 print to turn bullish.  Stay tuned to the chat room for camouflage entry opportunities.

Perhaps if we all stopped watching gold so hard for a day or two it would show less disdain for bulls and do what had come naturally until last week -- i.e., move relentlessly higher. In any event, we needn't debate our choice of benchmarks to tell us when buying has resumed in earnest.  Because the 1154.50 peak shown on the accompanying chart cannot tell a lie,  that's where we'll set a screen alert to wake ourselves.  If the futures instead fall Thursday night after having gone no higher than 1139.00, some key (albeit minor in the bigger picture) supports lie at 1123.30 and 1107.60. _______ UPDATE (3:48 p.m. EST):  Another lousy day for gold. I wouldn't touch the futures before they hit 1090.20, a Hidden Pivot that looks magnetic.  This kind of weakness, with gold getting dragged lower each day, kicking and screaming, will ideally produce a V-shaped low. 

Gold futures continued along their tortuous path lower yesterday, far from invincible, but nonetheless defiant. The nearest Hidden Pivot support of significance is 1103.50, but lesser patterns promised relatively low-risk bottom-fishing opportunities above it.  My suggestion is that you use 'p' midpoints to do so -- most aggressively when the patterns that have produced them evince the gentle arc of the one shown in the chart.  Best possibility as of 9:30 p.m. EST would come on a swoon down to 1122.00.  Bulls can get excited if a rally exceeds 1154.50 0vernight or Thursday morning, since that would create a  quite bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. _______ UPDATE (9:44 a.m. EST):  Using the 1122.00 pivot flagged above would have caught the best trading opportunity of the day, since the futures bounced $11.50 from a 1121.80 low.  The bottom occurred at around 6:20 a.m.  If you caught the ride, treat yourself to a Havana -- or your parrots to some of that fancy Cuban bird seed.

It took gold four tries on the hourly chart this week to take out the panic low at 1135.80 recorded on  November 27, so we should still not be entirely impressed by this selloff. Hidden Pivot aficionados will probably come up with a 1094.30 target, using the ABC coordinates shown in the accompanying chart. That might prove to be the case, but 'B' is pure sausage as far as I'm concerned -- indicative of a downtrend that lacks real guts. If you want to be sure, I'd suggest monitoring the lesser abc patterns on the 3-, 5-, and 15-minute charts. For bulls, the good times would begin to roll on the 3-minute with an 1140.50 print.

February Gold created a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart without having reached the 1133.70 downside target proffered in yesterday's tout.  This is quite bullish on the face of it and suggests that the correction from last Wednesday's 1227.50 peak has already run its course. We'll hold bullion to a higher standard, however, and continue to monitor its vital signs each step of the way.  At the moment, our benchmark is an 1181.50 rally target, assuming the futures can first get past its sibling midpoint at 1167.50.   The bounce so far has gotten as high as 1164.20, so bulls will need to do a little better to earn safe passage to the 1181.50 Hidden Pivot. Traders and night owls should look for camouflage opportunities near 1160.30, since that's where a buy signal was triggered during the night session. The signal will remain valid as long as there's no dip below 1153.20, the point 'C' of the pattern. _______ UPDATE (9:50 a.m. EST): The futures aborted the rally to 1181.50 in the pre-dawn and have since taken an unconcvincing dive lower.  A re-test of Monday's lows near 1136.00 seems likely, but in any case, it would take a print of at least 1177.60 to turn the lesser charts decisively bullish once again.

As of 9 p.m. EST Sunday, the February contract had not created any bullish impulse legs even on the lowly 5-minute chart, suggesting there is more selling to come. If so, look for the futures to grope their way down to a Hidden Pivot support at 1133.70 in search of traction. Alternatively, buyers would need to pop this vehicle to at least 1177.60 to regain the upper hand.  The battle over the near term is likely to center around 1148.70, the midpoint sibling of the 1133.70 target.

The pullback from yesterday's final day-session peak was bearishly impulsive, as you can see in the hourly chart, since it exceeded the required internal and external prior lows. This has negative implications for the near-term, but they would be negated by a snap-back rally today that exceeds 1222.40. That would give us "dueling" impulse legs and a technical picture implying that bulls are still in charge.  A less convincing show of confidence would come if the rally in progress early Friday morning fails to clear any peaks at all, then falls to a midpoint support and reverses.  These possibilities are sketched out in the accompanying chart and should be monitored closely intraday. My gut feeling is that the futures will need to spend more time in purgatory before they take on the 1237.90 pivot noted here earlier.  A bearish outlook for the near-term would become more compelling if the futures were to create a southbound impulse leg on the hourly chart for a second day in a row.

Bulls should have been heartened to see gold so resilient on a day when the dollar stood firm. The payoff appears to be coming this evening, with a bullish thrust by the February futures above the day's range. I still like 1227.90 as a minimum upside target, or perhaps 1230.00 if any higher, but we should turn cautious when that range is reached. It seems likely to show some stopping power, but if none is discernible that would sharpen the focus on the 1337.00 target given here earlier.

Too bad December Gold couldn't close above $1200, since it would have turned up the heat on the cabal that has been struggling in vain to hold prices down. They'll have their hands full on Wednesday nonetheless, given the niggardly correction from Tuesday's high, 1204.00. For now, let's use a 1227.90 target that comes from the hourly chart (see inset). The midpoint support lies at 1181.80, so a pullback to that price should be used as a buying opportunity if there's a minor reversal-rally pattern to leverage (i.e., "camouflage").