GCG10

Shortly after 8 p.m., the futures were struggling to find traction at 1091.30, the very tradable Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart. They'd need to rebound to at least 1110.60 on Wednesday to turn the momentum in bulls'  favor;  otherwise a 1046.80 target will be in play, along with another at 1028 that comes from a larger pattern identified here earlier.

Gold was having trouble Sunday night sustaining a modest short-squeeze leap recorded when trading began.  Sellers were not having much success either, however, suggesting things could go either way. A minor breakdown would likely test support at 1104.10, a Hidden Pivot, but if buyers are going to take charge, the turn should come from no lower than 1106.90 (its midpoint sibling), give or take a couple of ticks.  An upthrust exceeding 1122.50 today would clinch the bullish case for the near term, but that benchmark lies a tad beyond the nearest Hidden Pivot rally target, 1118.00.

Gold was moving effortlessly higher Wednesday night even though the Dollar Index was off just slightly, suggesting there are committed buyers behind the rally.  The high so far is 1103.70, the precise target of the pattern show in the chart, but any progress above it would portend a minimum 1107.50/1108.60.  To determine whether this surge is more than a one-day wonder, we'll use 1123.90 as a benchmark. A print today at that price would shorten the odds that an important bottom is in.

Here's a 240-minute chart that clearly shows the provenance of the 1059.80 target drum-rolled in today's commentary. Pivoteers should find some things to love here, including a "sausage B"  that was followed by another down-leg that exceeded no fewer than three (!) external lows.  The 'A'  is an over-the-falls, single-bar gem as well, and that's why I find the pattern so very compelling. If and when the futures fall to the pivot, you can bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as $1.00.  If this should occur on Thursday, I'd suggest exiting the trade if it has not gone at least $6 in-the-black by the bell.  Please note:  The bullish benchmark at 17.605 that I've flagged in Silver has an analog at 1122.75 in February Gold. That would be quite a rally, for sure, but it would take no less than that to dispel all doubts that bulls are back in the driver's seat.

A major trendline and two notable Hidden Pivots come in around $1090, so we'll just have to cross our fingers. Gold is obviously a speculative buy here, but the chart leaves no doubt  that a decisive breach would grease the skids down to as low as  1028.  That was the point of departure for the powerful rally begun just before Halloween, and it is a logical downside target in the event of a breakdown. Traders looking for a camouflage opportunity to get long should focus on the three- and five-minute charts all the way down to 1086, since a false breakdown could conceivably need that much space to panic nervous traders.  (Late note: a midpoint support at 1093.30 must hold Monday night if a bullish turn is coming.  This appears unlikely at the moment.) 

The futures appeared bound Sunday night for 1128.70, a minor Hidden Pivot that is tied to a midpoint resistance at 1118.40.  The rally would surpass some small peaks made on the way down Friday, but to qualify as impulsive on the 30-minute chart, it'd need to get past 1132.30 by day's end.  Our "gold standard" for a decisive turn, however, is still a print exceeding 1154.50.

I took my eye off the ball briefly when an abortive rally Wednesday night threatened to disrupt a promised pullback to at least 1090.20, but that's still the number to watch.  There's another HP support near there, as well as the trendline support shown in the accompanying chart.  A breach shouldn't be viewed as fatal, and in fact we'll be on the alert for signs of a devious breakdown, since nothing has changed to fundamentally undermine the bullish case for gold. Most immediately, the futures would need to pop to 1123.90 today to get back on a bullish track.

Wednesday's wildly idiotic price action reminded us of the days when the bonds were wont to act as though they had to do "something" nutty every time the Fed came out with a "more-of-the-same" announcement.  Yesterday brought more more-of-the-same "news" from the Fed, and gold traders went nuts for an hour before it dawned on them that the central bank's plan to keep administered rates exactly where they are was not exactly earth-shaking news.  Later in the day, around 7:40 p.m. EST, February Gold had recovered completely from its swoon and was poking above the spiky intraday high at 1142.50.  A no-brainer target at 1147.30 can serve as a minimum upside objective for Wednesday night (see chart).  That would get the futures past the first of three peaks immediately above, but at least one more peak would need to be smashed to imply that the correction is over.  Above 1147.50, the next interesting pivot is  1155.00.  ______ UPDATE (12:32  p.m. EST):  The futures are down $10 from their highs in deference to tonight's surge in the dollar.  The pullback  is not yet impulsive on the 15-minute chart, even, so you could say that Gold is holding up pretty well so far under the circumstances.  The 1147.30 target that had looked so promising would be negated by a print below 1129.30, a mere dollar beneath tonight's so-far low.  FURTHER UPDATE (3:10 p.m. EST):  The 1090.20 target I proffered here a while back is still the one to care about. I said I wouldn't touch February Gold until it hit that price, but an 1102.30 Hidden Pivot support that I posted in the chat room was too tempting to pass up. I advised exiting this scalp-trade at 1106.50, but the rally carried an additional $4, to 1109.60, before gold resumed its familiar trajectory.     ow gold minimum , as I originally had

The futures spent most of the day oscillating around an 1124.90 midpoint whose 'D' sibling lies at 1133.00. We'll make that our minimum upside projection for today while noting that that's not asking too terribly much of February Gold. An 1154.50 benchmark remains viable as the point at which we may infer bullion's corrective phase is over.  It would take somewhat less than that, however -- specifically, a print exceeding 1143.40 -- to invalidate the 1090.20 target that is still our minimum correction target.