Gold

Buyers impaled the 2073.00 target of the reverse pattern shown, implying the futures are on their way to at least 2152.60, the D target of a lesser pattern whose A & C coordinates are shown in the chart.  Given the way bulls consolidated above the smaller pattern's midpoint pivot, the probability is high that D will be achieved with little ado. Since the futures by then will have broken free of gravity at $2,000, we should expect a relatively quick move from 2152 to 2,200, the first round number resistance above the soon-to-be-obliterated one at $2,100. _______ UPDATE (Dec 8, 11:47 a.m.): I'll bet our old friend Andy Maguire had a thing or two to say about Monday's psychopathic, whoopee cushion reversal in gold. He has noted that the pond scum who cause these takedowns have a risk cushion of as much as $90 in the arb against unlimited paper gold. Although they are obviously still able to squash gold down to $2000 practically at will, DaScumballs are going to find in increasingly difficult to fool investors into thinking gold deserves to be significantly lower than that. For now, the February contract is headed down to the 2001.50 target shown in this chart -- a good place to attempt tightly stopped bottom-fishing. Any lower would indicate 1986.90, an even better bet for bottom-fishing if it is achieved.    

Gold delivered on a 'mechanical' buy last week without getting anywhere near the 1955 stop-loss that would have applied. I'll therefore stick with the longstanding target at 2070.70, although the impulse leg that produced it leaves something to be desired. Specifically, it peaked without having exceeded the 'external' peak at 2028.60 recorded on July 20. The rally was impulsive nonetheless because it surpassed other 'external' peaks along the way, but the fact that it looked the high at 2028.60 in the eye, so to speak, without being able to hurdle it suggests reticence and uncertainty in buyers. ______ UPDATE (Nov 24): Scant progress last week produced no change in my analysis or outlook. _______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 4:12 p.m.): With the futures head-butting peaks recorded on Halloween near $2,000, gold's handlers had little choice but to let 'er rip toward the $2070 target we've been using to keep from getting fooled or scared into submission. The smaller pattern shown in this chart, with a 2074.30 target, provides a finer shading if you want to trade this vehicle. ________ UPDATE (Nov 29, 10:53 a.m.): The effortless move through p=2033 of this pattern has all but clinched more upside over the next two weeks to at least 2131.00. Once buyers have pulverized that Hidden Pivot resistance, look for a blitzkrieg rally to 2200 and higher. ________ UPDATE (Dec 1, 10:45 a.m.): February Gold has precisely achieved a $2073 target equivalent to the still unachieved one at $2070 in the December contract. This is a contango oddity, but our focus should be on the February contract, since it is the active month. Here's the chart: https://bit.ly/3N7YgD7

Sellers took out the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 1947.00 with such ease the more downside to at least p2=1910.70 seems unavoidable. Thereafter, continued weakness to as low as D=1874.30 would become likely if p2 is decisively penetrated. For all its disappointments, we need to keep reminding ourselves that gold is in a bull market and that it will turn $2,000 into support only when its handlers -- mainly sovereign banks in concert with bullion bankers -- decide it's time to let 'er rip. The former will continue to accumulate gold in the meantime, and so should we. Stay tuned to the chat room and keep your 'Notifications' switched on if you want guidance in real time. _______ UPDATE (Nov 14, 8:03 p.m.): If the rally hits the green line (X=1983.40), it would trip a 'mechanical' short. Paper trade this one just to keep score unless you know how to set up a 'camouflage' trigger 

We've all been wondering when $2000 will start looking more like support than resistance, an eventuality that showed no sign of happening over the last few weeks with the futures cavorting there and teasing bulls. It was an annoying exercise in tedium as gold slid up and down a greased pole of hopes and expectations. It doesn't help that most of the action took place beneath a slew of 'external' peaks recorded last May and July. My hunch is that the excruciating excess of deliberation is a consolidation for a sustained move that will ultimately leave $2000 in the dust. We'll continue to trade with a bullish bias unless a salaciously appealing opportunity arises to get short temporarily.

Gold completed a shallow consolidation last week before launching toward the 2068.00 target we've been using as a minimum upside objective. If buyers plow through this Hidden Pivot, our next price objective would be 2133.10, calculated by sliding the point 'A' low of the reverse pattern down to an 1820.00 low recorded last November. That would produce a conventional ABCD pattern, but it would be sufficiently gnarly to make the resulting Hidden Pivot levels useful for trading.

With gold in one of its steepest climbs in recent memory, the 2068.00 rally target billboarded in my last update looks like a lock-up. The December contract's midweek stab through p=1945.80 all but clinched this outcome, along with a likely test of May's $2129 record high. That would bring into play an even bigger, bullish pattern begun in November 2022 from 1711 and which targets 2241.90.  These are the most ambitious targets I've broached in a year, but my high confidence is commensurate with the rally's steepness and the intimidating difficulty of climbing aboard.

Even though Friday's rally was the best we can recall in a long time, there are still reasons to believe it may not have been the usual fraud. We'll know once we've seen how buyers handle the green line (x=2041.60). Ordinarily a hit there would trigger a succulent 'mechanical' short to as low as D=1777.10. My hunch, though, is that the rally will liquefy the Hidden Pivot resistance and keep on going, ultimately surpassing the nasty, bull-trap summit at 2129.70 recorded back in April. In the meantime, using x=2041.60 as a minimum upside objective, we have a hundred points of bull-friendly turf to play with. ______ UPDATE (Oct 18, 9:10 a.m.): Buyers had little trouble pushing past the 1955.40 'D' target of a gnarly pattern this morning, implying they will be gung-ho to take on an important 'external' peak at 1972.40 before pressing on to an all but inevitable rendezvous with $2000. Here's the chart. The move targets a minimum 2068.00 on the daily chart (reverse A=1885.20 on 3/8).

Friday's rally was impulsive on the hourly chart and the best we've seen in a week. However, if bulls meant business, they would have taken out the 1849.30 peak recorded on October 3 to complete a hat-trick of 'priors'. Instead, they stopped a hair short of it, presumably too out-of-breath for a final-hour sprint to the finish line. We should give them the benefit of the doubt nonetheless, since the shallow correction off the intraday high suggests that at least somewhat higher prices are coming.  My advice is to keep your expectations low until we've seen how the rally interacts with a couple of minor Hidden Pivot resistances. _______ UPDATE (Oct 12, 8:55 p.m.): A sharp rally reversed just as sharply this morning when the regular session began, but not before buyers had pushed the futures above some external peaks recorded at the end of September. This generated a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, shortening the odds of another leg up once the correction has run its course.

Gold is close enough to the depths of despair that we might hope for a rally. However, since hoping is for losers, we'll just watch and learn to like it as the futures swirl down the crapper. Ordinarily, Friday's slight overshoot of D=1865.20 would be no cause for alarm, but in this case we'll infer the worst -- i.e., that the support should have held if gold were ready to turn. If you want a slim reed to grasp, use the 1855.40 target of this gnarly pattern. It's okay to back up the truck there, but only if you use a very tight stop-loss. (Note: I have not boldfaced and colorized the target because I don't want to draw attention to it.) _______ UPDATE (Oct 2, 9:19 a.m.): The $7 rally from within less than a dollar of the number given above would barely have paid for a Soho lunch, although the very tight trigger interval (TI) I'd advised would have prevented a loss. The subsequent relapse means gold is still in gold-is-garbage mode. A little overdone, don't ya think?  _______ UPDATE (Oct 2, 11:07 p.m.): The futures look bound for the 1777.10 target of the reverse pattern shown here.  I am awed by the viciousness with which the bullion bankers and their scummy friends in high places have defenestrated, drawn-and-quartered, impaled and flayed those who might have intended to take delivery on September COMEX contracts. When there's no 'physical' available to supply, Their solution is to crush demand.