Gold's gratuitous feints in both directions have become tiresome, and so I'm not going to get too heavily invested in the opportunistic leap it took Friday on dollar weakness. The pattern shown says a 'mechanical' short would trigger at x=1925.00, but I would not be especially enthused about laying out a few contracts there, since the bearish energy of the A-B leg has had a lot of time to diffuse. The short can be attempted nonetheless, provided we use a 'camouflage' trigger to initiate the trade. In any event, the 1774.50 downside target that was first signaled on February 2 remains theoretically viable, if no longer compelling. _______ UPDATE (Mar 13, 10:27 p.m.): This should be interesting now that the flight to safety that has followed SVB's collapse is looking more like a buying panic. The 'mechanical' short at 1925 still looks enticing, but I'll suggest paper trading it unless you know how to set up a 'camouflage' trigger near the green line. This implies doing the trade on the five-minute chart (or less) when x is hit. _______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 9:44 a.m.): Buyers impaled x=1925 without triggering any shorts (other than a 'conventional'-type entry at x that we never use). Price action within the pattern is still interesting for what it seems to predict -- i.e., that a one-level relapse to p=1874.90 that would make the short profitable is still more likely than a rally exceeding C=1975.20. _______ UPDATE (Mar 16, 11:31 p.m.): When April Gold punches through the midpoint resistance at 1938.00, it'll be bound (exactly) for D=1964.50 of this pattern.
Last week's subdued bounce created a bullish outside bar on the weekly chart, implying the uptrend will continue. However, if it reaches the green line (x=1925) that lies $70 above, that would trigger an appealing 'mechanical' short, stop 1976. That doesn't necessarily mean the futures would recede back into the bowels of hell, only that the short would be a good bet to return a one-level profit with a drop to the red line (p=1874.90) before the larger uptrend resumes. The 1774.50 downside target will remain theoretically valid nonetheless until such time as C=1975.20 is exceeded.
The futures made progress last week toward the 1774.50 Hidden Pivot target that has served as our minimum downside projection for a while. The presumptive correction began nearly a month ago from 1975. It has been brutal, but the predicted low beckons as an opportune place to attempt bottom-fishing. As always, a camouflage trade trigger will be the preferred method to get onboard, since it can enable us to lose nothing or even make a few bucks even if we are wrong about where a bottom might form.
Gold futures continued to head lower as anticipated, presumably bound for the 1774.50 'D' target of the by now familiar pattern shown. The downtrend bounced precisely from a Hidden Pivot level (p2=1824.70 ), just as it did the previous week when p=1874.90 caught an encouraging bounce. I won't raise your hopes this time, however, since that would only invest gold with more contrarian joo-joo than it already has. (Side note: Bull markets will always be filled with discouragements big and small. It is only in retrospect that they will seem to have been fun.) We'll find a way to bottom-fish if and when the target is reached, but this might take some clever footwork, since the pattern, even though a less-obvious 'reversal', is not likely to be under-observed.
The 1858.60 downside target of the reverse pattern shown is probably the best we can hope for, given the way bullion's personal Darth Vader crushed gold on Friday for no great reason. (Okay, it was getting a tad overbought, all right?) You can bottom-fish there with a tightly stopped 'camo' trigger crafted from the 5-minute chart, but if the trade gets stopped out be ready for more slippage to at least 1824.70 or even 1774.50 if any lower. Those Hidden Pivot supports are derived from a larger reverse pattern using A=1848.40 on 8/12. _______ UPDATE (Feb 14, 4:03 p.m.): Although I still expect the April contract to continue falling to at least p2=1824.70, or possibly to 1774.50 (see above), today's bounce from the D target of a smaller pattern raises the possibility that a bottom is in. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Feb 17, 8:55 a.m. ET): The overnight low came within $3 of the touted minimum downside target of 1824.70 -- close enough be considered fulfilled. A further drop to my worst-case number, 1774.50, is NOT a foregone conclusion, as the tout implies, although it would be if the futures relapse and crush p2=1824.70. However, a relapse could conceivably do no worse than bring the April contract down to a low that would more precisely fulfill the forecast. For my own trading purposes, the $3 gap is sufficient to negate rABC bottom-fishing, at least for the moment.
I still think this is the pattern that will usher gold futures above $2,000 for the fist time since since April -- just not on our schedule. It did nothing as the week ended to monetize the 'mechanical' buy triggered on Thursday, although the position was showing a slight gain at the closing bell. I cannot 'guarantee' D=2017.70 will be reached, since buying died precisely at the 1966.60 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance (p was a decent speculative short, actually, for subscribers who trade this vehicle aggressively). If the futures dip below the green line and you hold no position, try bottom fishing at 1921.2 with a stop-loss at 1920.80. This is a speculative play based on the 60-minute chart where a= 1966.10 on 1/26 and b=1935.10. _______ UPDATE (Jan 31, 6:42 a.m.): Last week's stall at the p midpoint pivot of D=2017.70 is about to have consequences, with the futures poised to negate the pattern noted above with a marginal dip (or worse) below C=1915.50. They'll come down to around 1900 if they slip any lower, or possibly even to 1891.10 to test an important low recorded there on January 12. _______ UPDATE (Jan 31, 10:23 p.m.): Ha ha very funny. The futures' dive on the opening bar failed by a tick to stop out the bullish pattern and its 2017.70 target. If the April contract hits p=1966.6 and then falls again to x=1941.10, that's would trip a 'mechanical' buy that I'd recommend, subject to the usual caveats. _______ UPDATE (Feb 1, 6:26 pm.): The drop from just shy of 1966 only came down to 1955.40, so there was no trade. It left this pattern, with a short-term target at 1982.30. The pattern looks opportune for a 'mechanical' buy following a one-level pullback to either p=1968.90 or x=1962.10. Attempt the
The minor, bullish pattern shown, with a 2000.50 target, has the potential to put gold over $2000 and set up a shot at the all-time high at 2078 notched last March. Price action goes back only to a low recorded less than three weeks ago, on January 5, so I made certain the A-B segment was legitimately impulsive. You cannot see the 'external' peak that the leg surpassed, but rest assured it is there and that its conquest portends a continuation of the uptrend with no breach of the 'C' low. This implies that 'mechanical' trades to get long will enjoy exceptionally good odds for producing a profit. Stay tuned. _______ UPDATE (Jan 26, 12:31 p.m.): Feb Gold is tracking the touted pattern (see thumbnail inset) perfectly, with a nasty pullback from within two ticks (0.20) of p=1949.6. The pattern looks opportune for making money on either side of the market, including shorting at D=2000.50 with tight risk control. (Be prepared for some niggling stop-outs up there, since my merely having published the target could subject it to front-running.) More immediately, gold has triggered a 'mechanical' buy at x=1924.10, stop 1898.50. The usual caveats apply, but I would encourage you to paper-trade this one if you lack complete confidence in the 'mechanical' set-ups I've been posting in the chat room. About 90% of them have been profitable, not that that is a guarantee of future success. Here's the chart.
Buyers handled the 1907.10 Hidden Pivot resistance with ease, then closed comfortably above the 1910 top of a daunting supply zone created when gold was distributed in May and June ahead of a $200 downdraft. This all but guarantees more robust upside, presumably with a test of $2000 that has beckoned since last spring. We can trade the rally as low-risk opportunities arise, the first of which could come from a small peak (i.e., look-to-the-lefter) at 1943.70 recorded in late April.
March Gold's tortuous climb to a 1907.10 Hidden Pivot target continued last week in the accustomed way: an impressive leap followed by exhaustive backing and filling, The futures have signaled only one 'mechanical' buy at the green line, and it went on to produce a theoretical profit of about $2,200 per contract. A second such signal if gold relapses would be worth bottom-fishing, although my gut feeling is that the implied trek to D would be a messy, tedious slog, assuming the target is achieved, Although that still seems likely, it is not a given because of the difficulty the March contract has had surmounting midpoint resistance. ______ UPDATE (Jan 6, 11:24 p.m.): No change. Feb Gold remains on track for a run-up to at least 1907.10, a Hidden Pivot target that has kept us confidently on the right side of the trend for more than a month. Let's keep our fingers crossed and hope that bulls blow the 'D' target to smithereens when they first connect with it. _______ UPDATE (Jan 12, 11:47 p.m.): This morning's lunatic leap came within a split hair (i.e., 0.50) of fulfilling the longstanding target at 1907.10. Anyone who shorted there should have taken a partial profit on the subsequent $19 dive. The shallow pullback so far suggests bulls are not finished,
Nearly three weeks of consolidation may have doused the flames from November's volcanic eruption, but the labored ups and downs over that period haven't diminished the odds that the next bull leg will hit 1907.10. The target, a Hidden Pivot resistance of daily-chart degree, is shown in the inset. It became no worse than an even-odds bet to be reached last week when the futures briefly poked above the midpoint resistance (p) at 1820.30. They subsequently missed triggering a mechanical buy at the green line (x-1776.90), but the trade will still be viable when trading resumes Sunday evening. With implied entry risk of around $17,000 on four contracts, this one is for subscribers who know how to cut that to $1500 or less using 'camouflage'. The green line should not be construed as a support or a target; it is just a reference point we use to do certain types of trades. _______ UPDATE (Dec 23): The 'mechanical' buy at 1776.90 noted above is still valid and carries the same caveats. _______ UPDATE (Dec 27, 10:27 p.m.): The C-D leg has become so labored and punitive that I am no longer recommending a 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to x. The 1907.10 target remains theoretically viable nonetheless.
