Gold

Gold's best week since August triggered a theoretical buy signal at 1950.80, activating a minimum upside projection to p=2050.  The move is not yet a done deal, but it would rate better odds if the futures can push above the 1983.80 'external' peak recorded on 9/16. Even then, I would expect herky-jerky price movement that might actually be short-able as a scalp-trade. The 2250 target may look overly ambitious, but it would become an odds-on bet if the rally impales the 2050.60 midpoint pivot on the first try. The powerful A-B impulse leg of the pattern is likely to yield excellent odds for 'mechanical' entries at either p or  x (the green line) if the opportunity should arise. _______ UPDATE (Nov 9, 6:35 p.m. ET):  Today's wicked plunge did not negate the bullishness of the daily chart, but it may have slightly lowered its potential.  The dive to slightly below the pattern's point 'C' low would have stopped out many bulls, unburdening this bounce from profit-taking. But if the rebound is weak, failing to exceed, say, $1900 over the next couple of days, I'd take it as a bearish sign. ______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 7:25 p.m.): Day one of the rebound was encouraging, lifting the futures $50 above Monday's bombed-out low. Let's see if bulls can tack on a second straight day of gains. [They didn't, but neither did they crash C=1848. The jury is still out. _______ UPDATE (Nov 12, 9:11 p.m.): Zzzzzzzz.

The week ended with modest rally that created a bullish impulse on the hourly chart (see inset). Despite this, I expect the futures to continue on their way down to the 1822.80 target, which is somewhat higher than the one given previously. In fact, if buyers drive this vehicle to the green line at 1910.20, that would trip a mechanical short, stop 1939.40. The short-term picture would brighten, however, if a rally takes out an external peak  at 1917.30 recorded last week on the way down by Wednesday. That would shorten the odds of a breakout above the 1939.40 high that defines the bearish pattern. _______ UPDATE (Nov 4, 10:15 p.m. ET): The pop very slightly above the 1917.30 peak turned the short-term picture bullish, tied to a target at 1926.40.  Here's the pattern, which has already produced a near-perfect mechanical entry at x=1893.00 and could work again. ______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 9:06 p.m.): After nearly three months of range-bound slogging, December Gold has finally rallied to a tripwire that portends more upside to as high as 2250. I'll have more to say about this in an update that will be out Sunday night, but for now we can ratchet up our bullish trading bias a skoch, using p=1950.80 as a minimum upside objective for the near term.

Gold is trading exactly where it was in mid-July, a long-term hold for investors with plenty of patience. The lack of upward progress tempts one to say that it is untradeable, but this is untrue. The chart shows four 'mechanical' buy signals  over the last two weeks that could have produced $7600 in profits per contract for anyone who simply bought when the futures came down to the green line, then sold when they hit the red line. At Friday's close the futures had embarked on yet another repeat of this money-maker. A $1900 profit seemed so certain, in fact, that any experienced trader would have avoided the trade like the plague. We'll be interested to see how December Gold extricates itself from a pattern that has become suspiciously predictable. Stay tuned. _______ UPDATE (Oct 28, 10:53): Today's dive shifted the burden of proof back to bulls. The day-ending breach of p=1873.10 in this chart implies the futures are headed down to at least p2=1839.90, or to D=1806.70 if any lower.  If a rally intervenes and reaches the green line, it would trigger a mechanical short, stop 1939.50. _____ UPDATE (Oct 29, 10:13 p.m.): A thrust exceeding 1885.10 today would turn the short-term picture mildly bullish. Even so, the bearish targets identified above will remain valid unless C=1939.40 is exceeded to the upside

Gold traders have been beating themselves bloody for nearly a month, creating innumerable price reversals slightly above or below prior highs and lows. This kind of price action reveals that the algos, whom I sometimes refer to as droolers, are so hooked on what we call 'impulse legs' that their supercomputers will often be a step behind traders who think like traders and can second-guess dumb machines. The chart reveals a particular telling instance of trend failure -- one implying that we should favor the bears at the moment even if their edge is slight.  The bearish pattern shown has a midpoint pivot at 1880.80 that can serve as a minimum downside target for now; and a D target at 1822.20. (p2=1851.50). _______ UPDATE (Oct 21, 11:53 p.m.): Price action has become extremely tiresome. Here's a bullish alternative to what I've written above, but I offer it without enthusiasm or encouragement; it is strictly informational.

Gold will need a couple more days like Friday, went it shot up $41, to signal the likely end to the consolidation begun in early August from a record 2089.20. Specifically, an 'external' peak at 1983.80 recorded in mid-September must be exceeded to generate the first bullish impulse leg on the daily chart since July. The immediate potential thereafter would be to 2050.60, the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of this pattern; and eventually to D=2250.10. All of this will of course depend on the dollar, whose weakness would turn ugly, if not to say impulsive, if it starts the new week as badly as it ended the last. _______ UPDATE (Oct 14, 7:35 p.m. ET): Bulls are working MUCH harder than bears to push this vehicle around. Even after struggling for altitude over the last 30 hours, they have yet to recoup losses that the bad guys inflicted on gold in a mere 90 minutes the day before. Price action has been too tedious to monitor closely, but I will recommend nonetheless that you bottom-fish at p=1895.20 (click here for chart) with as tight a stop-loss as you can abide. An rABC set-up with a very short A-B leg  (i.e., 8 points or less) should be suitable for this purpose. If the trade gets stopped out, it would shorten the odds of a further fall to D=1872.90. _______ UPDATE (Oct 14, 10.09 p.m.): The 1895.20 pivot worked out exactly, to the tick.  Here's the chart.  If you bottom-fished there, even a one-tick stop-loss would have worked. Your profit at the moment would be about $2600 on four contracts. Exit half and manage the rest at your discretion. _______ UPDATE (Oct 15, 8:09 a.m.): A few subscribers reported jumping on the trade in the chat room and making substantial gains. I'm

Gold was probably oblivious to news of Trump's illness on Friday, but not to the modest upswing in the dollar. As a result, the December futures couldn't hold onto a $7 gain achieved overnight. The intraday high occur an inch above the 1921.90 Hidden Pivot I'd proffered as a target the night before, but that's not enough to assume with confidence that the subsequent pullback is going to be a consolidation for another leg up on Monday. Bulls held the edge at the bell nonetheless, and as long as they don't let the futures dip below C=1885.80 (see inset), they shall remain favored. _______ UPDATE (Oct 5, 5:27 p.m.): The rally on dollar weakness may have looked impressive, but it exceeded zero 'external' peaks. The closest lies at 1925.50 (9/21 on the hourly chart), and let's hold the applause until it has been breached on a closing basis or decisively bettered intraday. ______ UPDATE (Oct 6, 8:18 p.m.): The timid poke above 1925.30 should have fooled no one -- but it obviously did, given the way gold collapsed on news that Trump had taken stimulus talk off the table.  The bullish trend since  Sep 28's 1851.10 low remains intact nonetheless, but the burden of proof has shifted heavily onto bulls. Whatever happens, plan on bottom-fishing with a tight stop-loss if and when the futures fall to the 1838.00 target shown in this chart. _______ UPDATE (Oct 9, 8:59 a.m.): This morning's so-far $33 upsurge would need to tack on an additional $56 to become technically significant. Here's a chart that explains why.

Gold wasn't quite believing the weakness in the dollar or it would have racked up an even bigger gain on the day. Even so, each of the three upthrusts that occurred Tuesday exceeded a prior peak, refreshing the bullishness of the intraday charts and suggesting that higher prices lie ahead. By day's end, the December contract had slightly exceeded a 1904.20 target I posted in the chat room. This was neither bullish nor bearish, but the so-far shallow pullback to 1899.60 is. Let's see how bulls do over the next day or two dealing with thick supply between here and 1925.00. _______ UPDATE (Oct 1, 6:07 p.m. ET): Just a little more push will connect with the 1921.90 Hidden Pivot target shown in this chart. A decisive move past it on first contact would be bullish.

The upward blip at week's end did little to alleviate gold's distress. Continue to use D=1838.30 as a minimum downside objective -- and yes, you can attempt tighty stopped bottom-fishing there, especially if you've made a few bucks on the way down. December Gold's interaction with D is bound to be telling, since the target is so clear and compelling. A decisive penetration to the downside would be bearish, and a two-day close beneath it still moreso. Alternatively, if bulls are about to turn things around, the process would begin with a pop above 1898.30. This is equal to an 'external' peak a tad higher than the one given here earlier.

Gold has been screwing the pooch all summer, so there's no point in my trying to say something interesting. The December contract settled on Friday at the same price where it was trading on July 26,  and that's the story. The dramatic plunge in the second week of August proved to be inconsequential, a gratuitous bit of nastiness intended by Mr Market to disillusion bulls who may have begun to imagine that quotes would be basing above $2000. Bears have been disappointed repeatedly as well, since they've failed to push the futures down to p2=1884.70 (see inset), let alone to the D=1838.00 target of the corrective pattern shown.  I've set a wake-up call at 1980.50, since that's where the bullish story would start to become interesting again. A longstanding target at 2142.50 remains valid but is not worth pondering at the moment. The general impression is that bullion has been biding its time, albeit with an upward drift, waiting for the financial crisis that everyone knows is coming. _______ UPDATE (Sep 16, 5:18 p.m.) : A timid, fleeting poke to 1983.80 woke me but has left me groggy. A subsequent $23 pullback was less than inspiring, although hardly a disqualifier of the bullish outlook. _______ UPDATE (Sep 20): Zzzzzzz. _______ UPDATE (Sep 21, 9:51 a.m.): Gold is breaking down from the pennant formation I featured in last week's impromptu 'disaster' presentation. Here's the bearish pattern to watch now, with likely minimum downside to p2=1885.40.  If bulls are going to turn things around before then, it would occur near 1910-11. _______ UPDATE (Sep 21, 9:05 p.m.): The futures bounced to-the-exact-tick off an 1885.40 downside target that I posted in the chat room when the futures were trading around 1917. This dead-center bullseye allowed numerous subscribers to report winning trades from the