Gold

After being locked in a tedious range for nine weeks, the futures have broken out in an unspectacular way. They are bound for the 1875.20 target shown in the chart, and we shouldn't be surprised if reaching it turns out to be a two-week slog. Getting aboard the uptrend intraday has been tricky, to say the least, but our best bet is with a 'mechanical' set-up. It's a bit much to ask, but a retracement to 1720.10, the green line, would be a back-up-the-truck opportunity. Smaller patterns may give us a chance as well, but we'll have to play it by ear. In any event, you can use p2=1823.50 as a minimum upside target for the near term. ______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 9:44 p.m. ET): The slog I told you expect could at times feel more like the Bataan Death March. Today, for instance. The plunge did not alter my bullish outlook, although it could create a potential tightly stopped buying opportunity at 1766.80. That's a Hidden Pivot midpoint support on the 15-minute chart, where a=1797.90 (8:30 a.m. on 7/1); b= 1767.90 (11:30 a.m.).

August gold rallied on Friday to within a millimeter of a 1762.40 Hidden Pivot that I'd said would show stopping power. The 1760.90 high was also a single tick shy of an external peak recorded on June 1. The shallow retracement that followed is encouraging on the question of whether a breakout is coming, but it would take a strong follow-through surpassing p=1772.90 in this chart to put the 1877.40 target seriously in play.  Mechanical trades initiated using the pattern have entry risk approaching $2500 per contract, but we may be able to use smaller patterns to get it done. As always, you should tune to the Trading Room if you're interested. _______ UPDATE (June 22, 8:49 p.m.EDT): The futures poked above 1772.90 (see above) for a moment but closed below it. This is encouraging but not quite sufficient to lock up a moon shot to the 1877.40 target. There are probably too many rightly enthusiastic buyers at this point for the futures to pull back to x=1721, but if they do, consider it a gift to traders looking for a high-odds mechanical entry, stop 1668.30. _______ UPDATE (Jun 24, 8:07): A head-fake to 1796 before DaBoyz pulled the plug would have stopped out any shorts from the 1790 level I'd flagged.  All bullish targets above remain valid in theory, but we'll wait and see what the little POS does on Thursday before we try anything new. ______ UPDATE (Jun 25, 6:30 p.m.): A day of tedium reiterated a 'mechanical' buy at x=1772.40 triggered Wednesday morning. We're not officially in the trade, but 50% should be exited at p=1786.50, worked against a stop-loss at 1758.30.

The psychotic pre-dawn spasm shown in the chart did nothing to alter an unexciting picture. As I have have said here repeatedly, gold is not in a bull market, but a bullish one. The former produces relentless rallies, with occasional swoons that are quickly recouped.  Gold has done no such thing. It continues to mark time with little institutional support, unable to compete for attention with the Mother of All Short Squeeze Rallies. For now, we'll consider gold's prospects one day at a time. The slight breach of the 1725.80 midpoint support suggests bears will have an edge over the near term. Even so, if you are comfortable with rABC trades and their ability to limit risk significantly, bottom-fishing at p2=1714.10 looks like a potential winner. Any significant slippage below this threshold would open a path to D=1702.40.  Alternatively, if the futures unexpectedly move higher, a push past 1748.40 would imply more upside to at least 1762.40, a Hidden Pivot that could show some stopping power. ______ UPDATE (Jun 23, 9:15 EDT): In after-hours trading the futures have speared a 1790 target I posted in the chat room this afternoon. Traders who got short there should have covered half of it around 1786.40, since the pullback to that number is equal to three times what was risked at the 1791.80 top.  For now, I'd suggest a 1790.50 stop-loss for the remaining half, o-c-o with an order to cover another 25% of the position at 1785.80.   

Gold had a lousy week, even dipping beneath a clear Hidden Pivot support on Friday to show bulls who's boss. The 1671.70 intraday low was a great place to have faded the trend, although not minutes ahead of the closing bell.  That's no assurance the selling won't continue next week, especially if the stock market rampages anew. For all the nasty selloffs we've seen in bullion over the last couple of years, bears have shown themselves to be just bullies, too cowardly to throw a punch unless investors' interest has been diverted elsewhere.  We'll continue to look for opportunities in either direction, but with no illusions about easy set-ups that can be detailed the night before. Stay tuned to the Trading Room for timely guidance. ______ UPDATE (June 8, 9:45 p.m. EDT): The futures have come within inches of the 1710.80 target I posted in the Trading Room at 15:31. The clarity of the pattern is sufficient to imply that even a small penetration of perhaps $1.50-$2.00 would augur still higher prices. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (June 9, 9:39 a.m.): Here's what's happening in GCQ at the moment: https://bit.ly/3h40CBo Gnarliest pattern ever, but with a sausage-y 'B'. I rate the mechanical 'buy' a 6.6. _______ UPDATE (June 9, 10:45 p.m.): If you bought on the pullback to the green line as suggested in my last update, you are currently sitting on a profit of $2400.  If I hear from two subscribers who did the trade, I'll establish a tracking position. Here's the chart. The 1736.30 target remains viable. ______ UPDATE (June 10, 9:51 p.m.): Gold is in its fifth week of range-trading, so we ought not be too presumptuous about what might occur next. If this is the usual failed rally, look for a top somewhere around 1772.90 [NOTE:

Gold has come crawling out of the gate Monday morning, down as much as $13 just ahead of the NYSE opening. The bounce from 1738.40 is mildly encouraging, however, since this level corresponds almost to-the-tick with a midpoint Hidden Pivot support. In theory, for uptrends to remain dominant, corrective abc patterns must reverse at or near their respective midpoint pivots as may be happening here. When this has occurred, we also know that a relapse breaching the pivot would likely find its way down to D=1730.00, whence a presumably tradeable bounce precisely from that Hidden Pivot would become likely.  In this case, the fledgling rally is approaching the point 'c' high of the pattern and would negate the pattern itself with a print at 1746.80.  That would be  reason for an added ounce of optimism, putting a 1754.40 target theoretically in play (15-min, A= 1728.60 on 5/29 at 4:00 a.m. EDT). ______ UPDATE (June 1, 7:05 p.m.): The 1754.40 target boldfaced above caught the intraday high within four ticks. I have slightly modified the pattern to show a 1770.00 'D' target that would become an odds-on bet to be reached if buyers can push the futures decisively past p=1753.80. Be on the alert for a 'mechanical' buying opportunity, since gratuitous swoons are always possible in this vehicle. _______ UPDATE (June 2, 5:15 p.m.): Gold's tortuous, mincing rallies, punctuated by gratuitously nasty plunges, have become too tiresome to be taken seriously. The futures are easily tradeable, however, using the Hidden Pivot tools at our disposal. Stay tuned to the Trading Room and post your technical observations if you care to interact with this vehicle.

June Gold trampolined off a 1683.10 Hidden Pivot Wednesday, enabling subscribers to get long in their favorite bullion vehicles at or very near the intraday low. I'd posted a heads-up in the Trading Room as the futures began their turn, noting that the 1683.10 'secondary pivot' of a pattern that has been in progress for six weeks was a 'logical' place for a bounce.  The futures rallied $30 from an actual low at 1684.20, and although they are not yet out of the woods, the bounce has turned the hourly chart bullish and breathed new life into targets as high as 1879. ______ UPDATE (May 28, 7:01 p.m. EDT): What would it take to imply the futures are out of the woods? Answer: an upthrust exceeding the 1757.60 peak recorded on May 20. I've set a screen alert to wake me when bulls get there.

The impressive rally that began the week went nowhere, leaving the futures about where they were in early April. They triggered a weak 'mechanical' buy signal at 1718.10 (the green line shown in the chart) on Thursday at the closing bell, but I did not explicitly recommend the trade ahead of the three-day holiday weekend. It implies minimum upside to p=1770.10 over the near term, but we'll hang back on a possible belated entry until we've seen how things open Monday night. The 1713.90 'D' target/support shown in this chart would be a good place to attempt tightly-stopped bottom fishing if it were to occur overnight or early in Tuesday's session. _______ UPDATE (May 26, 11:06 a.m. EDT): Gold is once again on its knees, too tired to do battle with a rampaging stock market.  The Hidden Pivot at 1713.90 noted above yielded a $4 bounce that lasted all of seven minutes -- too feeble for any profit taking other than by the nimblest traders. _______ UPDATE (May 26, 9:08 p.m.): Gold has turned to dross yet again, unable to compete against a stock market that has gone loco. You could attempt bottom-fishing near 1680 provided  you know your rABCs, but otherwise I'd suggest spectating as the  futures fall to as low as 1652.40 over the near term. Here's the chart.

Gold has struggled for three weeks to fulfill the lofty promise of early April's strongly impulsive rally. While the tedium may have discouraged bulls, particularly when one of the downswings briefly devalued contracts by nearly $100, all of the pooch-screwing has had little effect on an 1873.90 target that has been in play since April 22. The fact that nearly a month's worth of Sturm und Drang has yet to get the June contract even to the 1770.10 midpoint Hidden Pivot has been frustrating, but it looks like it will not be much longer in coming. Bulls were poised to get there when last week ended, and unless Sunday night opens with bullion caught in a game of whack-a-mole, we should count on a test of the resistance by no later than early Monday. What we should want to see then is a decisive push past the pivot, or a two-day close above it, since either would make the 1873.90 target an odds-on bet to be reached. ______ UPDATE (May 9:56 p.m.): Before this agitated hippo plummeted today for no good reason, it exceeded two peaks recorded in mid-April, one of them 'internal', the other external. That is bullish, implying this pullback is merely corrective. _______ UPDATE (May 21, 8:59 p.m.): A pullback to the green line in this chart has triggered a 'mechanical' buy, but the signal is a weak one because the pullback was not 'textbook'. Plan on sitting the day out as June Gold enters its second month of sideways tedium.

The bullish pattern shown, which promised just a few short weeks ago to deliver a run-up to 1873.90, is close to succumbing. Since gold loves to push bulls to the point of despair before turning around, we shouldn't give up on it quite yet, even if the futures stop out longs with a feint below C=1666.20.  If the feint turns into a rout, we'll regroup with fresh analysis. The intermediate- and long-term outlook would remain bullish nonetheless, but we should get used to thinking of bullion's longer-term uptrend as a bullish market, rather than a bull market.  The latter is what we witnessed in the Dow Industrials, Nasdaq and the S&Ps, which rallied almost relentlessly for 11 years no matter what the news. Gold, in contrast, has been mostly marking time,  demonstrating with an oft-tortuous uptrend that the bad guys can no longer punish it for more than a few days. ______ UPDATE (May 7, 9:05 p.m. EDT): Gold's best rally in more than two weeks has given it a running start at the 1770.10 midpoint Hidden Pivot where bulls failed the last time. They'll need to close the futures above it for two consecutive days to make a push to 1873.90. an odds-on bet. That would also activate the pattern itself for 'mechanically' trading the various levels. _______ UPDATE (May 12, 6:56 p.m.): Gold continues to mark time with gratuitous $60 swings. They are tradeable, of course, and entertaining to watch if you hold no position, but no fun otherwise. The bullish benchmarks flagged above will remain theoretically viable as long as 1666.20 is not exceeded to the downside.