Gold

Gold turned last week from within an inch of a secondary pivot at 1782.10 that I'd drum-rolled in the chat room. It was an afterthought, although I sometimes like to half-joke that all vehicles in all time frames, whether trending up or down, tend to reverse at p2. The rebound picked up steam on Friday, but we should wait at least until it exceeds the green line (1846.60) before breaking out a bottle of Ripple to celebrate.  This would generate a moderately appealing 'mechanical' short, although I'll suggest letting it pass, since gold is not actually weak, just rigged to appear that way. That implies the 1749.80 downside target (see inset) will not be reached, but we'll let the chart speak for itself rather than guess about the future. ______ UPDATE (Feb 9, 7:50 p.m.): The asphyxiating southbound slog since August's $2107 high will likely have been nearly as unsatisfying for bears as for bulls, since it has amounted to a mere 10% pullback, punctuated by feisty rallies to nowhere, over the six-month period. The futures tripped a mechanical short today with a rally to the green line (1846.60), but it doesn't feel like a winner. I guess that makes me slightly bullish for the near term, since it implies a pop above C=1878.90. _______ UPDATE (Feb 11, 7:16 p.m.): The 'mechanical' short is up $1900 per contract at the moment, but 1814.40 is where it should be covered,for a gain of $3200. Use an 1840.00 stop-loss for now.

My outlook and trading advice for silver is more bullish than for gold at the moment due to the latter's punk performance on the hourly chart. I tend to treat each separately in such instances rather than have feelings about one vehicle corrupt the accuracy of my forecast for the other.  In this case, Silver looks primed to drag Gold higher. How's that, you ask??  Well, the Reddit brats reportedly are intent on short-squeezing silver because they don't like the way DaScumballs who rule precious-metals markets often manipulate bullion quotes lower to cover short positions at bargain prices. We sincerely wish the brats all possible success in this worthy venture, but they ought to read Bunky Hunt's epitaph before they get carried away with themselves. Concerning Feb Gold, there is mild evidence to support  the case for a fall to p=1811.60 of the pattern shown (using the circled peak as 'C'), or even to D=1745.80. The equivalent numbers for the April contract are p=1814.40, and D=1749.80.  Looking at the charts in toto, though, it's clear that bears are not having any more success than bulls at profiting from bullion's ups and downs. Under the circumstances, I am making no recommendation, nor even ballyhooing a target. It could go either way, and I'm having difficulty caring which right now. _______ UPDATE (Feb 4, 9:16 p.m. EST): Here's the April chart, with a secondary (p2) HP support at 1782.10 that I didn't mention earlier. I proffer it now to those clinging to the hope that this unwarranted and gratuitous shakeout won't be quite as bad as it could get. ______ UPDATE (Feb 4, 9:25 p.m.): The little weasel plunged to 1784.60, an inch shy of the 1782.10 target flagged above, before rebounding moderately into the close.  The rally will become more credible

Gold has been screwing the pooch for five months, vexing bulls and bears alike. The most promising rally over the period was the 200-pointer that occurred between October 30 and January 6. It failed by an inch to exceed an important November peak at 1973, however, casting doubt on a pullback that now threatens to inundate the daily chart. A far larger, bullish structure going back to 2016 remains quite robust, however, and the 1450 print it would take to seriously impair it appears to be out of bears' reach for the foreseeable future. _______ UPDATE (Jan 26, 8:36 p.m. EST): This pattern is my kind of gnarly. Play for a bounce from p=1810.20 with a stop-loss as tight as you can abide. ______ UPDATE (Jan 28, 9:36 p.m.): Today's stupid spasm changed nothing.

Gold futures seem poised to head at least moderately lower this week after failing to exceed anything significant on the last rally.  The pattern shown projects to a 1751.60 Hidden Pivot support. That would negate the point 'C' low of a far bigger, bullish pattern projecting to as high as 2166.90.  December's failed rally did not quite reach the 1967.10 midpoint resistance, telegraphing the weakness that has followed. In a headline last week, I told investors not to give up on gold.  That is still my advice, although we cannot rule out the possibility that the weakness will eventually test March's watershed low at 1461.70. I seriously doubt it will get that bad, but in the meantime, absent an impulsive rally exceeding November's 1973.40 peak, a turnaround does not appear to be in the cards. ______ UPDATE (Jan 19, 5:35): How unimpressive was today's rally?  Unimpressive enough, actually, to trigger a so-so 'mechanical' short at 1835.90, stop 1864.10.  We shall see. ______ UPDATE (Jan 20, 7:40 p.m.):  The rally stopped out the point 'C' high of a bearish pattern, but I still don't trust it. I've set my snooze alarm at 1973.40, a tick above a key 'external' peak made on 11/9. If February gold prints there, bulls will gain some credibility and the futures will be on their way to a 2166.90 target I haven't mentioned in a while.

Much as I'd like to encourage you, the chart offers little reason for enthusiasm over the near term.  It was hard not to notice on the last rally that bulls were too enfeebled to reach the midpoint resistance at 1967.10 (see inset), let alone impale November 9's 'external' peak at 1973.30. Even more dispiriting, the subsequent downdraft generated a bearish impulse leg on the daily chart when it exceeded by a decisive $2.90  an 'external' low at 1820.00 recorded on December 14. Taken together, these signs suggest that we should not get our hopes too high looking out perhaps 6-9 days. The bigger picture remains bullish but unexciting.

The somewhat persuasive trendline shown in the chart yields a 1931.70 rally target at week's end that sits about 2% above current levels. I'd suggest using this number as a minimum upside objective, since the trendline looks more interesting than any Hidden Pivot patterns I can offer you at the moment. There is one projecting to 1949.80 (daily, A =1820.00 on 12/14), however, that appears serviceable as a minimum 'extension' target if 1931.80 should be easily pushed aside. Either of these number can be shorted with a stop-loss as tight as 0.80 points if you've made money on the way up. _______ UPDATE (Jan 4, 7:59 p.m.): Today's so-far high has gotten within 0.60 of the 1949.80 target. Now, the 1967.10 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in this chart promises to take the guesswork out of what's coming next. You can make it your minimum upside objective for the very near term. _______ UPDATE (Jan 6, 8:02 p.m.): The intraday high of today's bull-trap rally failed not only to reach our p=1967.10 benchmark, it also failed to clear the  1973.30 'external' peak recorded on 11/9. I believe that gold sellers got the news wrong today and that the weakness was an opportunistic sucker punch. Even so, the technical warning signs are not to be ignored, so let's stipulate that the futures must close for two consecutive days above p, or trade more than $15 above it intraday, to earn back our confidence.

We briefly grabbed the weasel by the tail last week for a profitable ride, but it became harder to tell as the days wore on who was winning, bulls or bears. The small breach of an 1864.50 midpoint support on Wednesday was not sufficient to suggest the downtrend would continue to D=1838.00, nor even to warrant a presumption of further weakness.  Instead, we were left with a faintly encouraging chart that will become still moreso on a two-day close above 1891.00. That is the Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance of a pattern projecting to as high s 1922.80 over the near term.  You can find it on the 30-minute chart, where A=1848.20 on 12/16. This pattern has the potential to signal a buying opportunity, so stay tuned. _______ UPDATE (Dec 30, 7:16 p.m. EST): A second-day close above 1891.00 on the final trading day of the year would put a little heat on the bad guys, especially if the new year begins with elevated perceptions of the evolving fraudulent-election crisis. We'll have to wait and see, but my short-term bias in bullion remains moderately bullish.

There are signs that precious metals may be breaking out after correcting since August. That is why I am featuring a longer-term chart with an ambitious target at 2166.90 that equates to a 15% move above current levels. The pattern tripped  a theoretical buy signal at 1867 two weeks ago that is associated with a midpoint pivot at 1967.10 we can use as a minimum upside objective. We should allow 2-3 weeks for the rally to play out. That's assuming the four-month retracement bulls have just endured has discouraged enough of them to lighten the burden of their profit-taking on the way up.  Please note that the February contract still needs a modest push above November 16's 1904.30 'external' peak to generate an impulse leg on the daily chart. It would be the first since April. ______ UPDATE (Dec 21, 5:57 p.m. EST): The bad guys used pandemic news to smack down gold in thin trading overnight, but they failed to inflict any further damage after activity began to pick up Bulls could tactically concede a little more ground, but watch for them to turn things around decisively from p=1868.30 in this chart. _______ UPDATE (Dec 22, 8:25 p.m.): Apologies, since I neglected to link the chart I'd prepared for last night's update. Here's a new one, however, that offers a somewhat more bullish prognosis for those who got long. It shows a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 1866.60, $1.70 below the one given previously, where a tradeable bounce was likely. A bounce has indeed occurred, but the small breach of the red line will warrant caution.  This means taking a partial profit this evening, with the futures trading $3 above the original entry price; and using a break-even stop-loss for what remains. Another partial profit is suggested if the

The futures have dipped slightly below the green line at 1830.60, quietly signaling a drop to at least 1781.40, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart. Bears have not exactly romped since gold topped in August at 2099, but they have dominated the action, often to devastating effect on those occasional days when conditions were right for a takedown.  The longer-term charts are unambiguously bullish, but it would appear bullion has been biding its time, presumably waiting for a signal change in the Big Picture. It is remarkable that bitcoin has usurped gold's historical role as a hedge against inflation. This anomaly seems unlikely to last, but for the time being bullion's loyal supporters will have to  get used to seeing it underperform cryptocurrency that is intrinsically valueless. ______ UPDATE (Dec 15, 8:32 a.m.): Here's a new chart that corrects the erroneous 'B' low in the original along with its downside targets. The result lowers p and D by around $5 to, respectively, 1776.80 and 1673.7.  This does NOT mean I am more bearish. In fact, other than on rigged 'takedown' days, bears seem to be struggling for every inch. Moreover, if today's so-far gratuitous rally gets rolling and exceeds 1879.80, that would invalidate the new targets. A further push exceeding 1902.40 would generate the first impulse leg we've seen on the daily chart in ages. _______ UPDATE (Dec 17, 1:22 p.m.): This morning's strong rally missed creating the impulse leg we'd wanted (see above) by five ticks.  Bulls would seem to have the gumption to get it done, but with gold, it will always be a matter of 'trust but verify'. Proof therefore awaits.