Gold

December Gold has struggled quietly since tripping a theoretical buy signal at 1941.30 more than two weeks ago.  The 2142.40 target still looks likely to be reached, but the presumptive consolidation has grown more than a little tedious. Bears could not have gotten much satisfaction either, since, except for a savage pounding they administered the second week of August, the futures have refused to give up any ground. Regardless, the December contract still needs to close above p=2008.30 for two consecutive days, or trade above 2030 (or so) intraday, to make a run-up to the target an odds-on bet.  The gratuitous swings are tradeable in the meantime, but only with diligent attention intraday.

Gold looks like a coin toss right now, with dueling impulse legs pointing in both directions. However, I'd bet on bulls to achieve the 2142.50 target eventually, even if the December contract corrects down to d=1837.10 first (see inset). The key, oddly enough, will be how quickly AAPL achieves its bull-market target at 537.23. They don't ring a bell at market tops, as the saying goes, but the 4-to-1 stock split in AAPL next Monday is for all intents and purposes the bell that will signal an end to the most dollar-consequential mania in stock-market history.  If the target does in fact prove to be the top in AAPL -- the 4-to-1 split price would be 134.30 -- gold could begin moving higher before the bottom drops out of shares. The most important caveat is the dollar, which is groping for a bottom and may have made one already. A strong dollar will put pressure on bullion, to be sure, but the effect would become muted over time due to rising perceptions that the world is going to hell in a handbasket. Nothing could hasten that perception more than shifting odds of a Biden victory. This is an outcome that very obviously is NOT priced into the market, and I am predicting a Trump landslide myself. But even four more years of Trump offers no guarantees that the global economy will pull out of its pandemic-induced tailspin. The resulting writedowns of capital that are already in motion --  New York City, for one, and a dozen other large cities that taxpayers are fleeing -- represent a deflationary enormity almost beyond imagining. It is coming, though, and that's why the stock market must fall, with AAPL leading the way. It could take as long as four to six months for the

News out late Friday afternoon that Buffett had taken a $563 million stake in Barrick Gold (GOLD) was greeted with proper enthusiasm, although it remains to be seen how much of the gusto will spill into Sunday's opening.  The stock rocketed more than $2 in after-hours trading to close at 29.18, the intraday high. Comex futures had stopped trading by then, but they should see a boost when activity resumes Sunday evening. At the very least, buyers should be able to push the December contract to the p=2008.90 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in the chart (inset). Any higher, especially a two-day close above p, would shorten the odds of a further move to the pattern's 2143.50 'D' target. This number was broached here earlier and can serve as our best-case scenario for the week ahead. Even so, I plan to lay out a small, tightly-stopped short near 2008.90 if buyers do not demolish the resistance on Sunday's opening. This is just a straightforward, buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news bet. _______ UPDATE (Aug 18, 5:54 p.m. ET): A gratuitous mid-morning swoon was recouped quickly, but bulls were subsequently unable to take out the earlier high. If the futures go nowhere for another day or two, they made need to pull back for a running star at 2143.50.  P=1930.40 of this pattern would be a logical place for a bottom and a good place o try bottom-fishing. _______ UPDATE (Aug 19, 8:21 p.m.): The 1930.40 target drum-rolled above caught the low of today's $80 plunge within a dime. If you bottom-fished there as I'd suggested, the trade could have produced a quick gain of as much as $6,400 on four contracts. Since no one mentioned having done the trade, I have not established a tracking position. Further slippage would put the 1837.10 'D' target in

Elsewhere on this page, I've explained why the memorably nasty selloff in silver is unlikely to prove fatal. My reasons are technical, based on a recent rally spike that exceeded an 'external' peak recorded seven years ago.  Price action in gold corroborates this with evidence that is not so esoteric. Specifically, last week's spike to record highs exceeded a clear target on the weekly chart at 2031.30. Although there were other, higher targets that went unfulfilled, the December contract's upside penetration of a Hidden Pivot resistance we can be certain of is indisputably bullish. The correction likely has farther to go, however, and we shouldn't be surprised if it probes round-number support at 1800, or even 1700, before sellers are exhausted in perhaps 6-10 days. _______ UPDATE (Aug 13, 8:59 p.m. ET): The futures have been struggling for loft, but we can still use p=2008.90 shown in this chart as a minimum upside target for the near term. As always, a  decisive push past a midpoint resistance, especially on first contact, would shorten the odds of a finishing stroke to D=2143.50.

The December contract, so light and frolicsome recently, turned leaden on Friday with the futures about $17 below a promising looking rally target at 2107.10. We can focus on the lesser charts to tell us whether the weakness is likely to develop into something serious. As things stand, the bounce from the intraday low at 2024.80 triggered a 'mechanical' short at 2040.50, stop 2051.10. I didn't mention this in the chat room, however, because it was late in the day and because the buying looked pretty spirited. Now, a print exceeding c=2051.00 on Sunday night would stop out the theoretical short -- exactly what we should want to happen if we are going to continue to trade with a bullish bias.  The 2107.10 target will remain viable in theory unless 1927.50 is breached to the downside, but as a practical matter it would start to dim below 2000. _______ UPDATE (Aug 10, 9:04 p.m. ET): Night owls can try bottom-fishing at the 2010.60 target shown in this chart.  An rABC pattern where a= 2027.80 on the hourly chart (8/10, 3:00 p.m. ET),  is the best way to keep entry risk under tight control, but if you are unfamiliar with the tactic, use a simple, 2010.10 stop-loss. The futures looked sickly in after-hours trading, so plan on taking at least a partial profit if the trade goes your way modestly. _______ UPDATE (Aug 11, 8:48 a.m.): Gold got hit hard overnight with selling that is continuing this morning. The December contract looks bound for 1954.60, a Hidden Pivot target shown in this chart, but if it gives way, the slide could continue to as low as 1937.40 (b=1991.40).

[This went out via email at 6:01 p.m. Wednesday night with December Gold trading $20 lower. Owing to a problem with WordPress, however, it did not get published in the list of touts at that time. RA] I've swapped out the October chart for December, since that's where the action is.  The 2107.10 target is $16 higher than the old one, but the implications are the same. Given the steepness of the impulse leg that unfolded during the last two weeks of July, a pullback to p=2017.60 would set up an enticing 'mechanical' buy, stop 1987.70. Since Mr. Market is unlikely to gift us with such a juicy opportunity, we'll need to pay close attention to smaller entry patterns at these  levels, particularly rABCs on charts of 15-minute degree or less.  There is one such set-up at the rightmost edge of the chart shown, with an 'A' low at 2044.40 (9:00 a.m.). Entry would have come at 2046.40, stop 2941.80. ______ UPDATE (Aug 7, 8:34 a.m. ET): The futures have turned heavy, their progress toward the 2107.10 target stymied Thursday evening at 2089. I am no longer recommending a straight 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to 2017.60, since the 'D' target was nearly achieved. However, because it remains valid in theory, we still have a bull trade ahead of us, presumably with risk under tighter control than a 'mechanical' entry would allow.

The futures appear to be basing for another rally, although they cannot yet be considered an odds-on bet to achieve the 2285.90 target shown in the chart.  A move at least somewhat higher over the near term seems likely, however, given the way last week's sharp thrust exceeded the 1981.60 target shown here.  The small overshoot may not look significant, but in the visual context of an ABC pattern so clear and compelling, that's sufficient to warrant a bullish trading bias. The upbeat picture would change, however, on a pullback early in the week exceeding the 1941.70 low recorded on Thursday. Otherwise, look for buyers to cruise above 2000 -- for the first time ever -- soon. _______ UPDATE (Aug 4, 7:06 p.m.): The move above $2000 has been so effortless that the futures should be presumed headed to p2=2046.30, at least, arriving either today or early Thursday. As always, a decisive stab through a Hidden Pivot level would imply a move to the next -- in this case the 2091.00 target of the pattern shown in this chart.  A surprise swoon to the green line would trigger a mechanical buy, stop 1912.10. _______ UPDATE (Aug 5 8:34 a.m.): The futures have pulled back a mild $7 after topping at dawn at 2048.00, a hair above the 2046.30 pivot I'd proffered as a minimum upside target. Once this correction has run its course, a decisive pop past p2=2046.30 would all but lock up more upside to the 2091.00 Hidden Pivot noted (and shown in the chart) above.

August Gold's leap Monday night missed a longstanding target at 1992.40 by $18, which ordinarily would warrant a cautious stance for at least a few days. In this case, however, the recovery following an overnight sell-off has been so quick and effortless that a lasting push above $2000 seems all but assured. The modest, 2006.20 target shown in the chart is one of several I could have displayed, but it will suffice for now as a minimum upside objective.  I'll haul out some bigger charts with more  ambitious targets once gold looks like it has found solid footing above $2000. ______ UPDATE (Jul 30, 2:35 p.m. ET): Today's snoozefest did not alter the bullish picture for the near-to-intermediate term.

Careful! August Gold is closing on a potential rally stopper at 1877.40. I expect a push above it, perhaps  after a brief stall, but if buyers blow past it Wednesday night or early Thursday, they'd be in good shape for a romp to the 1992.40 target shown in this chart. I have adjusted it slightly downward from the 1994.40 given here earlier because one of the original coordinates was wrong. The precise pullback from p=1830.40 in the second chart suggests that when the 1992.40 Hidden Pivot is reached, it'll be a good opportunity to lighten up. As far as I can tell from the discussion in the chat room, all subscribers who trade gold have been long with confidence and are enjoying the ride. ______ UPDATE (July 23, 5:35 pm.): Bulls are closing on p2=1911.40, a secondary pivot associated with the 1992.40 target shown in the chart linked above. It is all but guaranteed to be reached, but be prepared for a stall and the start of a correction lasting for as long as a week or two.  Alternatively, if the futures blow past the pivot, closing above it for two consecutive days, that would imply 1992.40 has become and odds-on bet to be reached and that this will happen sooner rather than later. _______ UPDATE (Jul 27, 7:14 p.m.): The cruise to an almost certain  rendezvous with 1992.40 has been effortless if unspectacular. This Hidden Pivot should evince tradeable stopping power, although I don't intend for you to get short there. The round number $2000 is the  more formidable obstacle, but there is nothing in the technical picture to suggest an important top will occur at that height. _______ UPDATE (Jul 28, 7:07 a.m.): Tricky, vicious and gratuitously nasty as always, gold topped overnight at $1974 -- just $18,