Gold

Gold fell a further $13 on Friday, pausing just a few ticks above the 1206.70 target I'd sent out the night before. I say that the futures have merely paused because the void beneath that low looks like it wants to be filled. That would imply renewed weakness in the days or perhaps weeks ahead to at least 1190.50, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart. Notice that the worst case over the next several weeks would be 1134.90, a crystal-clear target that lies 6% below. A decline of that magnitude would be discouraging, but it would still be a far cry from the sub-$1000 prices that some bullion bears have long predicted. A half-hearted sell-off would reflect the reality that weakness since 2011, when gold's price hit a record high $1911, has been merely corrective of a long-term bull market begun in 2008 from $680. Sellers Unable to Deliver a Coup de Grace As persistent and vexatious as sellers have been since 2011, they have lacked the power to deliver a coup de grace. While it's conceivable that gold could eventually fall below $1000, there are no strong indications on the long-term chart that this is likely.  Indeed, price action since early 2016 has been bullish and could support a push to as high as 1452.60. This would be in the context of a decade-long bull market that could ultimately reach 2278.20. Click here to see the picture. _______ UPDATE (Nov 14, 9:34 p.m.): A sharp push past 1225.40 would re-energize bulls for a possible shot at 1254.10. Here's the chart.  _______UPDATE (Nov 15, 7:30 p.m.): This pattern looks extremely likely to work, meaning that a decisive stab past p=1216.30 will put December Gold on course for a run-up to exactly 1225.50. If so, that would set

Gold has once again fallen into a rut, dropping moderately for three consecutive days. This has occurred with the December contract having failed by $8 to achieve a $1254.10 rally target I'd flagged. The futures have since made a tentative bottom 0.60 above the $1212.80 correction target where I'd suggested bottom-fishing.  Thus did we narrowly miss catching the $5.40 rally that ensued. But will it get legs? I doubt it. Even so, lest we become depressed, consider today's chart (inset), which is quite bullish. Rick's Picks falls somewhere around the middle of the pack in letting gold's seemingly endless thrashing around, mostly southbound, discourage us. But we can still read a chart, and the one shown gives bulls the edge because of last week's upthrust to 1246.00. That slightly exceeded a July peak, creating a by-the-book impulse leg of intermediate degree.  To negate it, the December contract would have to fall beneath August's 1167.10 low. That's not out of the question, and we shouldn't be surprised if the futures do just that in order to jerk bulls' chains for the umpteenth time. Regardless, the uptrend begun in August deserves the benefit of the doubt, and any rally of $15 or more will kick it into mid-gear. _______ UPDATE (Nov 1, 9:43 p.m. ET): Use the 1242.20 midpoint resistance as a minimum upside objective for Friday. If the futures exceed it decisively intraday or close above it for two consecutive days, that would imply more upside to the 1279.09 target shown. _______ UPDATE (Nov 3): Zzzzzzz.  Let's give it another day or two to see how buyers fare at 1242.20._______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 5:54 p.m.): More waiting is what gold typically requires of us, followed by more frustration, then more disappointment. It has been in a correction for more than seven

One step higher, three steps back. At this rate, it could take most of the week for December Gold to reach our aging target at 1254.10. Alternatively, if that Hidden Pivot resistance is brushed aside, look for a continuation of the three-week-old bull cycle to at least 1260.80. Expect a tradeable pullback from that number if it's reached.  Even if it were certain the rally will achieve 1254.10 or higher, it is not tradeable if risk:reward is held constant at the 1:3 ratio I always advise. That's because the $2-or-so additional theoretical profit possible at each new high is followed by a $15 swoon, effectively generating a risk:reward of 7:1._______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 6:36 p.m.): The 1226.00 downside target I posted in the Banter Room Monday afternoon caught the bottom of a so-far $6.60 rally within a single tick. Subscribers reported using the target to get long in the futures, but also in GLD, an ETF-based alternative. I will be spending more time in the Banter Room in order to pick up the tempo there. All subscribers are invited, but I have requested that anyone who visits the room -- as opposed to the chat room, which is attracting mainly lurkers -- post at least once per hour, or once per session if the post is actionable._______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 9:01): Gold is once again doing what it does best, disemboweling the faithful. The futures tripped a 'mechanical' short from 1227.70 that is doing nicely. Half should have been covered at p=1222.80, predicated on a 1212.80 target. Cover another 25% at p2=1217.80 against a 1232.80 stop-loss for the two contracts that remain._______ UPDATE (Oct 31, 9:07 a.m.): Because I have reverted enthusiastically to my gold-is-garbage mantra, it is a perfect time to be on alert to the possibility of a

I've greeted rallies in recent weeks with unmitigated skepticism, and dissed gold every chance I got, but today's powerful upthrust did everything I'd asked of it, turning me -- and the hourly chart -- mildly bullish. The move was uncorrected as of the close, and so it's possible the impulse leg will become even more impressive, exceeding additional peaks without pulling back. For the time being, though, I'll suggest using the 1237.90 target shown as a minimum upside objective. It is woefully illegitimate because the A-B impulse leg clearly did NOT surpass any significant prior peaks. However, the pattern itself is sufficiently comely for us to use for targeting purposes. The move would become downright impressive if it surpasses the 1244.70 'external' peak recorded on July 23, especially if this were to occur without a significant correction en route._______ UPDATE (Oct 15, 9:53 a.m.): The December contract has fallen back sharply after rallying  $15 overnight to within 1.00 of the 1237.90 target I'd furnished. For purposes of establishing a tracking position, I've asked subscribers in the chat room for details concerning any positions they may have held or still hold. The downturn has come precisely, and coincidentally, from the 1236.70 midpoint resistance of the pattern shown in this chart. If it is brushed aside by buyers, look for the rally to continue to at least 1254.10. _______ UPDATE (Oct 21, 5:07 p.m.): Bears remain badly on the ropes after being impaled by October 11's big rally. However, bulls show no energy or enthusiasm for launching another leg higher. The stalemate could continue for a while, but the longer the December contract hovers at these levels, the more likely it will become to correct sharply to gain some running room. Click here for a fresh chart. ______ UPDATE (Oct 23, 11:08

Tuesday's strong upthrust got bulls' juices flowing in the Rick' Picks chat room, but I would caution you against letting your expectations get too high. Notice in the chart (see inset) that the A-B impulse leg begun in mid-August failed to surpass any of the peaks recorded when the futures were heavily distributed during the first two weeks of August. The doubts I've raised are nothing that another bullish pop on Wednesday or Thursday wouldn't cure, but we'll leave the burden with bulls until such time as that happens. In any event, the decisive move through the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 1205.40, has made December Gold a good bet to reach the 1226.50 target shown.  If they can do that and push just a little higher, exceeding an important 'external' peak at 1228.60 recorded on August 3, bulls can breathe a sigh of relief, since that would imply the rally is the first potential 'real McCoy' we've seen in a long while.

Gold's tiresome slog over the last month between 1190 and 1220 looks increasingly likely to end with a fall to at least 1165.30, a 'midpoint Hidden Pivot' support. If the futures fail to get traction there, look for more slippage to 1109.80. For gold bulls this would not be disastrous, only dispiriting. I still doubt that quotes will fall below $1000, not that that's going to cheer you if you've been nurturing a position acquired since 2011, when prices peaked just above $1900. If you're inclined to look on the bright side, click here. The chart shows that Comex futures could fall to as low as 1046 without negating a bullish pattern that projects to as high as 2278. We should remain open to the possibility, but if you want to be strictly objective about it, set a screen alert at 1391.40, since that is where the futures would generate a fresh, bullish impulse leg on the continuous monthly chart shown.

December Gold has trapped bulls with fake rallies two days in a row. It dove even more steeply on Friday, the second day, falling from a 1213.80 peak recorded in the dead of night to an end-of-session low at 1197.80. This kind of price action is bound to discourage bulls, and it could only occur if too many of them are too eager to jump on the futures every time they show a spark of life. Price action has been worse than discouraging, actually, it has been viciously punitive. That's why I will continue to remind you that, in the minds of most investors, gold is garbage. That description may sound harsh, but its purpose is to keep you from thinking that mere hopefulness will suffice to turn gold around. Although there are a dozen good reasons why gold could be considered undervalued at current levels, that doesn’t mean quotes couldn't continue to fall to levels that seem absurd. I doubt nonetheless that they are headed below $1000, but that still leaves $200 of downside to torture the faithful. We can continue to trade impulsive rallies in the meantime, but only by way of the lesser charts, so that entry risk is very tightly controlled. _______ UPDATE (Sep 17, 9:44 p.m.): The futures are technically on track for a run-up to D=1223.90,  but they'll need to do better than that -- with effortless aplomb -- exceeding the 1228.50 peak shown here, to deserve our mild interest.________UPDATE (Sep 21, 10:19 a.m.): Gold has plunged $20 after failing by $7 to reach my 1223.90 target. What a shocker. Just keep reminding yourself that, as far as most investors are concerned, gold is 'garbage'.  If you don't lose sight of that unfortunate fact, it cannot hurt you.

I've been so skeptical about gold's rallies for so long that I'll stick closely to the technical evidence to guide me this time, lest I miss the start of the real McCoy. Although the December contract looks almost certain to reach the 1223.90 target shown, I doubt that it will push far past it. That's because the point 'B' high of the pattern was so anemic, failing to exceed the mid-August peak. That would have generated a robustly bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, making the current move more likely to get legs. Whatever happens, we should watch closely to see how buyers handle the Hidden Pivot resistance at 1223.90. If they demolish it, that would be reason to trade more aggressively with the flow. For now, however, traders should regard a move to that number as all but inevitable.______ UPDATE (Sep 13, 4:35 p.m. EDT): Today's punitive reversal actually increased the odds that 1223.90 will be achieved, since the intraday high generated a fresh bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. Otherwise, the analysis above can stand as given. I am skeptical and no masochist, and that's why I am not gung-ho to jump on this vehicle, even when it looks 'good'.

Rick's Picks will always be a good place to visit if you're a gold bull in need of a reality check. I promise to call 'em as I see 'em, relying solely on charts rather than sentiment to guide my forecasts. Right now, those charts are saying one thing very clearly: gold sucks.  This pains me as much as it does you, since, like many subscribers, I've got ingots, Maple Leafs and Krugerrands socked away for that rainy day we all know is coming. And it truly vexes me that one can buy a St. Gaudens double eagle -- one of the most beautiful coins ever minted -- for close to melt value. (Hey, swap 'em for bitcoin, you jackasses!) Rally 'Too Subdued' Which brings me to today's chart, a picture of Comex Gold that goes back to late 2016.  Notice that the current rally off an 1167.10 low recorded two weeks ago has been rather subdued. Given that the prospect of a drop beneath the December 2016 low at 1162.00 should have scared at least some bulls out of their positions, we might have expected this rally to be steeper and livelier. Instead, it has died just shy of the green line where a "counterintuitive" buy signal would have been tripped (see inset). The so-far failure of the CI trade to trigger is a bearish sign. It suggests that another test is coming of the 1162.00 low, and that if support there fails, gold will be headed down toward 1000 to test a more important low that occurred at 1046 in the final days of 2015. That's the technical picture, and there is no way to sugar-coat it.