Gold

Bulls got sandbagged Friday when a promising rally in the early going turned suddenly into a $17 drop. However, the good news is that this occurred after the April contract had pushed above a key 'external' peak at 1361.00 labeled in the chart, generating a fresh, bullish impulse leg. Buyers failed to capitalize on this when they allowed the futures to dip beneath the 1350.80 low recorded a day earlier. It would have made an good launching pad if bulls had not been so exhausted. Look for more weakness in the days ahead, but please note that a rally of $6.25 or more would signal a possible bullish reversal. _______ UPDATE (Feb 20, 8:47 p.m.): How dreary!  Gold will lose some of its luster -- and my good will, technically speaking -- if this correction exceeds the 1319.10 low recorded on Valentine's Day. _______ UPDATE (Feb 21, 6:28 p.m.):  Assuming it goes no lower than Wednesday's 1324.40 low, April Gold would need to pop to 1335.70 today -- and close above it -- to register a pulse. _______UPDATE (Feb 22, 10:55 p.m.): The futures tripped a weak buy signal, but I'd suggest getting long only if you know how to 'camo' your way aboard on the five-minute chart. If you know why 1336.20 matters, you're qualified to do the trade. Be a Pivoteer hero! Consider sharing the trade with the chat room if it triggers.  _______ UPDATE (Feb 26, 5:38 p.m.): Buyers must push this cinder block above 1345.60 -- and close it above that number for at least two consecutive days -- to demonstrate that they are serious.  Thereupon, a 1368.20 target would be in play.

We've learned to look for rallies in gold whenever we start to feel a small twinge of despair. Lo, the April contract delivered right on schedule after I sounded this mildly despairing note in a tout sent out to you Monday evening: "Gold’s rallies have been so pathetic lately that the contrarian in me says it may be about to pop." Gold did indeed pop, overshooting the 1331.90 target I'd flagged by a technically significant $1.50.  Then the futures went on to exceed an 'external' peak I'd mentioned at 1334.80, refreshing the bullish energy of the hourly chart. The implication is that the futures are now on their way to at least 1349.30, the only significant resistance on the near horizon.If they can hurdle it, too, we'll raise our sights to the 1370.50 peak recorded on January 25. _______ UPDATE (Feb 14, 10:36 a.m.): Gold has had a spectacular rally this morning -- a $30 surge following a nasty shakedown on bearish CPI news.  The high so far is 1350.40, putting the 1370.50 benchmark noted above within shooting distance.

Gold has bounced as usual from the depths of disappointment, if not quite the brink of despair. This tripped a 'counterintuitive' buy signal at the green line (1340.40) that I very deliberately chose to ignore. Let it be a learning experience if buyers go on to reach the 1371.40 target, particularly if they do so effortlessly. This would become more likely if they get past the 1350.80 midpoint Hidden Pivot without pausing for breath. Once this has occurred, a pullback to 1340.00 would trip a 'mechanical' buy signal that we'll consider on its merits at the appropriate time. _______ UPDATE (Feb 6, 6:32 p.m. EST): Gold has reverted to its wonted sludgepot mode, although the 1350.80 benchmark noted above kept us from waxing unnecessarily enthusiastic about the last rally. Now the futures are headed down to the 1318.40 target shown, a Hidden Pivot support that, just for the hell of it, you could bottom-fish with a 1318.50 bid, stop 1317.90. If it fills, good luck! You'll be on your own. _______ UPDATE (Feb 7, 7:36 p.m.): Gold stopped out the 1318.40 trade, but the April contract would become a 'counterintuitive' buy in theory if it rallies today to 1327.70. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Feb 8, 5:59 p.m.): A weak rally tripped a 'counterintuitive' buy signal at the somewhat altered price of 1323.20. It could be good for a ride to 1337.30 or even 1365.60, but I am not recommending the trade unless you found it yourself and know how to manage the risk.  Please report any fills in the chat room if you'd like me to consider a tracking position.  Note: I have projected 3.11% for the Ten-Year Note, currently trading around 2.85%. As long as rates continue to rise, and the dollar to strengthen, my enthusiasm for gold

Gold is playing the tease once again, bettering September's key high at 1370.00 by an inch before receding again into the murk. Although this has not much affected the odds that the 1394.20 rally target we've been using for more than a month will be reached, it has put gold into limbo for the moment. At the very least, somewhat lower prices seem likely over the near-term. That's because last week's uptrend stalled to-the-tick at a 1354.30 midpoint I'd flagged, turning a weak rally into a mildly bearish formation. It projects to 1320.70, a Hidden Pivot support you can bottom-fish with a 1320.80 bid for a single contract and a stop-loss as tight as 1319.90. If the position goes in-the-black, you'll be on your own.

We have higher targets outstanding for April Gold, most immediately the one shown at 1373.10 (see inset). Odds that it will be achieved within the next couple of days would shorten significantly if buyers are able to push easily past the 1354.30 midpoint resistance.  At the close of Wednesday's regular session, buyers were stalled precisely at that number, but the shallow pullback so far is encouraging. A higher target of larger degree at 1394.20 that was first broached here a month ago still looks very likely to be achieved. (Note: We exited a profitable 'counterintuitive' trade around mid-session Thursday because it was taking too long to get airborne. The trade was associated with the 1373.10 target noted above.)

Pivoteers may have noticed that April Gold tripped a 'counterintuitive' buy signal when it rallied through the green line Wednesday afternoon. Odds that the rally will now reach the red line, a midpoint pivot at 1354.30, over the next 12-18 hours are at least 80% -- about what we have come to expect for this type of trade. However, a decisive penetration of the pivot would imply this vehicle is on its way at least somewhat higher, to the 1373.10 target associated with the midpoint resistance. Above it sits the 1394.20 target of a much larger, bullish pattern that goes back to July 2017. (Note: For the March contract, the published target was 1389.60.) _______ UPDATE (Feb 1, 12:30 p.m.): If you did the trade, perhaps belatedly, I recommend exiting the position now at around 1346.00 for a small profit. CI trades in particular should NOT be allowed to test our patience.

Wednesday's surge past a 'secondary pivot' at 1351.80 was so decisive that there should be little doubt as to whether February Gold will achieve the 1389.60 target that has guided us confidently for more than a month. Of greater importance is whether buyers can push past the target; for if they do so, and easily, it would suggest that the bull run begun in the final days of 2016 is capable of achieving much higher prices. This would become even more likely if the current surge, without pulling back discernibly on the daily chart, surpasses the 1397.90 peak recorded four months earlier. _______ UPDATE (Jan 25, 5:07 p.m. EST): Buyers look spent, at least for the moment, but we'll treat a pullback to the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 1314.00, as a mechanical buying opportunity.  Since the implied entry risk would be a whopping $2520 per contract if we deploy the required 1288.80 stop-loss, we'll instead use a mechanical trigger to generate a 'camouflage' entry signal. Ideally, this would lower the initial risk to perhaps $40-$120 per contract.  If you're interested in seeing how this is done, tune to the chat room when March Gold gets within $5 of the target.  _______ UPDATE (Jan 28, 5:05 p.m.): The 1344.50 pivot shown here looks enticing for tightly stopped bottom-fishing. Let's bid there for a single contract, stop 1343.90, day order. _______ UPDATE (Jan 29, 9:27 a.m.):  Sellers have driven the futures as low as 1339.50, stopping out our bottom-fishing trade for a small loss of around $60.  The breach of the 1344.50 pivot implies more weakness over the near term to at least 1333.00._______ UPDATE (Jan 29, 8:25 p.m.): Just a few more inches to go before 1333.00 is hit. Let's see if it holds. I'm not going to

Gold is now strong bet to reach the 1389.60 Hidden Pivot that has served as our lodestone in recent weeks. However, notice how the February contract lingered for a while near the 1314.00 midpoint pivot before taking flight last week. This suggests the move to the target is more likely to be in fits and starts, taking perhaps two or three weeks or longer, rather than occurring with a few heroic leaps such as we've become used to in some of the nuttier stocks. Gold has been decidedly un-nutty in scaling the heights, almost as if those who manipulate precious metals quotes for a living have acceded to the bull only begrudgingly.  No matter. We'll continue to be patient and to take the measure of buyers at each significant rally target. As always, if they can easily push above a Hidden Pivot resistance as clear and compelling as the one at 1389.60, they'll be telling us there is unspent buying power to push prices even higher.

A run-up to the 1389.60 target (see inset) is not quite a done deal, but I'd say the odds are about 80% that it will be reached, probably within the next 3-4 weeks. Most of last week's price action occurred above the 1314.00 midpoint pivot, and that is bullish. Moreover, it has taken place following an upside breach of several very real 'external' peaks (labeled #1, #2 and #3) on the daily and intraday charts. All of this bodes well for bulls, who endured considerable pain and discouragement between early September and mid-December, when the futures slid nine percent, from 1365 to 1238. _______ UPDATE (Jan 9, 4:18 p.m.): Gold is taking a breather, but we won't know how much oxygen it needs until we've seen more corrective action.  A pullback to the green line at 1276.10 would be discouraging and maybe seem even a little scary, but for those of you who trade in and out of this vehicle, it would also trip a 'mechanical' buy signal for a ride to as high as 1389.60. ______ UPDATE (Jan 11, 4:17 p.m.): Bulls should take encouragement from the way Feb Gold has been cavorting above the 1314.00 midpoint pivot, turning it into a support for the next push higher. Check my GLD tout elsewhere on the page for an equity-based strategy to get long.