Gold

Tuesday's feisty rally exceeded the 1296.40 rally target we'd been using by a relatively modest $2.40, but because the pattern associated with the target is so clear, even as small an overshoot as occurred will have bullish implications going forward. Accordingly, I'll suggest using the pattern shown (see inset), with a 1314.50 target that should be familiar to you. It is a logical minimum upside objective for the near term, but I wouldn't count on it for precise stopping power. That's because the A-B impulse leg of the pattern is not a legitimate one, having failed to surpass any external highs on the daily chart. Still, it's good enough for our purposes -- i.e., staying on the right side of the trend without fear. It's also good enough to imply that an easy move through it would be bound for a test of the 1345.20 election night high. _______ UPDATE (Jun 7, 6:05 p.m. EDT): Today's weakness generated a minor bearish impulse leg on the intraday charts. If the decline continues, breaching the 1280.20 low shown,  the short-term outlook would turn bearish -- the moreso if the declining abc pattern exceeds its 'd' target.

The futures turned hard from 0.80 above the 1260.50 correction target we were using Friday to bottom-fish, so officially nothing was done on the trade. The subsequent rally was a doozy, hitting 1282.20 by the final bell. The pattern shown strongly implies the uptrend will continue to exactly 1289.10 if it can push past the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 1282.10. A small and potentially tradeable pullback should be expected from that number, give or take a couple of ticks, but if and when it's brushed aside we'll switch to a larger and more significant pattern, with a correspondingly more significant target at 1296.40. We should be prepared to see some stopping power there, but if buyers are able to push the futures more than 2-3 points above it within hours of touching it, we should infer that the uptrend is just starting to warm up. ______ UPDATE (Jun 5, 8:20 p.m. EDT): Today's clueless tedium changed nothing in my immediate outlook (see above), even if it failed to inspire confidence in a quick push to the very modest target. If and when makes its move, we should want to see buyers blow through the target without hesitation.

Use the 1260.50 target shown to take the measure of this correction or to bottom-fish with a stop-loss as tight as 1259.90. You'll be on your own if the order fills, but please note that a print at the stop would be telegraphing further weakness. A larger, bullish pattern projecting to 1296.40 (60-min, A=1221.00 on 5/10) is still intact and will remain so unless the decline exceeds 1249.10 to the downside. That pattern will trip a 'mechanical' buy signal  at 1260.90, stop 1249.00, incidentally, but I'd suggest using a 'camouflage' set-up on the 10-minute chart or lower to initiate the trade.

I've switched to the August contract, which from a technical standpoint is identical to the June. The 1314.50 target on the new chart is several dollars higher, but as is the case with the June contract, the 'D' target is looking like an increasingly good bet to be reached over the next 2-3 weeks. The odds shortened a tad on Friday with bulls' decisive push past the 1266.20 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance. The near-term outlook would have grown even more bullish had the rally surpassed the 'external' peak at 1273.10 recorded on May that I've labeled in the chart. Like the June futures, however, the Auggies missed this threshold by just a few ticks, so we'll need to cross our fingers on Sunday night and hope for the modest follow-through that would get the job done. Sunday night-owls take note: The 1273.10 peak, along with several others to the left of it, could prove useful for setting up a low-risk 'camouflage' entry trigger for a shot at p2=1290.30 or higher. ______ UPDATE (May 30, 8:15 p.m.): See my 10:16 post in the chat room concerning a 'counterintuitive' entry. At this hour, 1256.20 (5/26 at 2:00 a.m.) looks like a promising point A to use.  _______ UPDATE (May 31, 7:29 p.m.): The futures traded no lower than 1262.00 on Thursday, but some subscribers got long anyway based on the bullish outlook detailed above.  I'm not establishing a tracking position because the trades did not conform to my recommendation. However, the nearest rally target, a minor one, lies at 1279.00. Use it as a minimum upside projection for now, but please note that an easy move past it would indicate more upside over the near term. If the rally were to exceed 1282.90, that would be especially bullish.

Buyers were repelled today by the 1263.80 'secondary' pivot shown, failing badly in their attempt to achieve the 1269.80 rally target that had  looked so promising at Monday's close. The chart will likely have something to say about 'Matt's curse,' whereby a stall exactly at the secondary pivot usually proves fatal to the minor trend. In this case, according to Matt, a regular in the Rick's Picks chat room who trades mostly silver, it would imply more slippage to beneath the 1245.70 point 'C' low. That wouldn't kill the larger uptrend that has been in progress since May 9, but it would certainly dampen bullish spirits for the time being. For now we'll move to the sidelines, since the only opportunity that seems imminent would be a scalp-short overnight. _______ UPDATE (May 24, 6:03 p.m. ET): The futures rallied from a shallow hole today (click here for chart), seeming to dodge 'Matt's curse' for the time being.  The rally is potentially tradable via 'camouflage', but you'll need to zoom down to the 5-minute chart to find 'external' peaks suitable for this approach. _______ UPDATE (May 26, 12:58 a.m.): The June contract will need to pop above 1269.70, an 'external' peak recorded on May 1, to get out of  pussyfooting mode. Not that gold looks bad at the moment, but we should demand something more of it before we shift our attention in earnest to the 1311.70 target broached here earlier.

Today's fleeting stab above the 1263.00 midpoint pivot (see inset) was not sufficient for us to infer that a further run-up to the 1311.70 target is a done deal. Regardless, a pullback to 1238.70, the green line, should be regarded as a buying opportunity. Done with a 'mechanical' bid at that price, the trade would imply a stop-loss at 1413.30 and initial risk of more than $2400 per contract. Clearly, there are better ways to get aboard, including a 'camouflage' entry that we might expect to cut theoretical down to perhaps $40-$60. Accordingly, I'll suggest zooming down to the five-minute chart if the futures should fall to 1238.70; then, using any minor, uptrending abc pattern that occurs subsequently to generate a conventional entry trigger. _______ UPDATE (May 21, 6:04 p.m. ET): The futures stair-stepped higher on Friday rather than correcting for a second day as I'd expected. Now, if they can take out the 1257.80 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance shown, they'll be in good shape for a run at the 1269.80 target. Pivoteers, please note: The 1256.70 peak recorded Friday on the way down has the potential to generate a great 'camouflage' entry opportunity if there's a bc-type pullback from slightly above it on the one- or three-minute chart.

June Gold took off Tuesday without kissing our stingy bid and has now extended the rally in after-hours trading. The 1246.40 target shown can serve as a minimum upside objective for the moment, but we should be rooting for an effortless move past it -- or better yet, past the 'external' peak at 1254.50 recorded on May 3. That would refresh the bullish impulsiveness of the hourly chart, clearing the way for a potential shot at 1263.00, the midpoint Hidden Pivot of a big bullish pattern begun in mid-March (A=1200.00) that projects to as high as 1311.70. _______ UPDATE (May 17, 6:07 p.m. ET):  June Gold took a heroic leap today as stocks plummeted. In after-hours trading the futures were just inches from the 1263.00 midpoint resistance noted above, having traded as high as 1261.60.  I won't try to predict what they will do next, but a decisive thrust past 1263.00 over the next several days would shorten the odds of a further run-up to at least 1311.70 (see above for details -- and click here for the chart).

June Gold slightly exceeded the minor Hidden Hidden Pivot resistance at 1230.10 that we used last week to get on the right side of a bullish trend change and to stay with it. Now I'll suggest using the pattern shown (see inset) to understand and exploit price action over the next day or two. It implies that a decisive push above the 1231.10 midpoint pivot is likely to hit 1235.50. You can see that it would take just a little more, specifically a move exceeding the 'external' peak at 1236.90 recorded last Monday, to put sellers back on their heels. _______ UPDATE (May 15, 6:35 p.m. ET): Gold did as it usually does today: two steps forward, one-and-three-quarter steps back. But not before generating a fresh impulse leg on the hourly charrrrrrrt by exceeding the 1236.90 'external' peak noted above. Traders looking to get long should use this 'counterintuitive' set-up I've sketched hypothetically here. Please note that a point 'C' low beneath 'A' is allowable, but ideally it should fall within the range 1226.10 - 1227.20.

My latest tout for silver futures makes for grim reading. However, because Comex Gold's chart leaves more room for a bullish outcome over the next couple of months, I've decided to treat it as a separate case. For in fact, June Gold would become a 'mechanical' buy if it pulls back to 1213.60, the green line shown in the chart (see inset).  Because the implied entry risk would be about $8400 per contract, however, we'll want to convert any 'mechanical' buying signal that occurs into a 'camouflage' entry trigger in order to hold the theoretical entry risk down to a more do-able $40-$80 per contract. Gold's price action fits a pattern it has exhibited for well more than a year, rallying no farther than it has to in order to lift bulls from the pit of despair; and then plummeting to exactly the threshold where that despair has returned in full. It certainly does feel like a bear-market tease. However, from a purely technical standpoint, this behavior has created a long-term bullish picture going back to late 2015 with a projected top as high as 1464.90. Keep in mind, though, that that number will remain pie-in-the-sky until such time as the futures push decisively above p=1297.40, a key midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance. We anticipated a stall there to the exact tick, but as always, there was no predicting with confidence at the time how far or for how long this arguably corrective weakness might last. _______ UPDATE (May 8, 7:34 p.m. ET): The futures were barely treading water today and will likely need to fall at least somewhat lower before they can muster a robust bounce. The most bullish spot for this to occur would be from p=1220.20, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown here. The rally would then need