Gold

Wednesday's pummeling generated a bearish impulse leg on the daily chart -- the first time this has occurred since mid-November. If the down-leg shown continues without interruption, exceeding yet another 'external' low at 1182.60 that I've labeled, it would deepen gold's malaise. Even so, we'll remain open-minded to the possibility of 'counterintuitive' buy signal that would come from a rally begun fro just above 1182.60. I'd be skeptical of its chances to reach the 'D' of the a-borning rally pattern, but we could still make a few bucks and enjoy a bullish ride, however fleeting. ______ UPDATE (Mar 9, 6:41 p.m.): Round-number support at 1200.00 is a mighty slender reed for bulls to lean on. Instead, I would make preparations for a fall to at least 1156.60, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of the pattern shown (see inset, a new chart). _______ UPDATE (Mar 12, 7:42 p.m. EDT): Keep the 1156.50 downside target flagged above well in mind as a minimum downside objective for the next several weeks, but more immediately we can give bulls the benefit of the doubt, since buyers generated a weak impulse leg with Friday's moderate rally. Take encouragement if it exceeds two or more of the labeled peaks  Sunday night or Monday, since that would generate a promising impulse leg on the hourly chart.  _______ UPDATE (Mar 13, 8:48 p.m.): There was little to encourage, since today's upward blip exceeded only the lowermost of the four peaks shown in the chart before dropping back. Nevertheless, if buyers can pop this vehicle decisively above 1207.30 today, I'd make it an odds-on shot to hit 1213.60 over the near term.

There can be little doubt that the futures are about to fall to the 1208.90 target shown, and soon. It should engender a precisely tradable bounce, but I am recommending this only to subscribers who have made a few bucks on the ride south via a short position. If the target, a middling Hidden Pivot support, gives way, especially easily and the first time it is hit, that would strongly imply more slippage to 1182, where a test awaits of a key low recorded there on January 27. _______ UPDATE (Mar 8, 9:33 a.m. EST): The 1208.90 Hidden Pivot  I'd identified evinced little support as the futures fell to a so-far intraday low at 1206.80. The implications are bearish, as noted above.

Bulls were on the run once again on Monday, headed for a test of support near the point 'C' low of what had been a promising rally pattern projecting to as high as 1281.50. I have put that target in boldface green because it is still viable in theory. However, a breach of the  'C' low would portend more slippage to an even more  important low at 1182.60 recorded in late January.  We shouldn't be too optimistic that this structural support will hold if it's hit. However, it wouldn't be unusual for gold to challenge the faithful with a dip below it before rallying strongly enough to encourage the kind of false hopes we've been nurturing since 2011.

April Gold tripped a buy signal when trading got under way Sunday night as 1236.00, but upside potential was limited to perhaps $9 over the near term, and so I am not recommending the trade except to night owls who know how to execute a 'camouflage' entry. A push past the 1238.90 midpoint pivot would make the 1244.80 target an even-odds bet.  Until Friday we'd held a single-contract tracking position with a cost basis that had been reduced by profit-taking to 1174.40. The 1225.00 stop-loss triggered late in the day, terminating the position with a theoretical gain of $5060. The details of the trade, with time stamps, are on the chat room Scoreboard. For what it's worth, Porter Stansberry mailed out a letter from Steve Sjuggerud that is calling for an imminent bottom in gold.  For my part, I'll need to see more evidence on the charts. Specifically, if and when the April contract pushes above the election night high of 1343.90, I'll become more receptive to his and other bullion bulls' arguments.

Weakness we'd anticipated brought the futures down to within $1.80 of the 1229.30 target disseminated in the chat room early in Thursday's session. Some subscribers reported having gotten short for the ride, but I am currently tracking only a bigger-picture long position that has left us with a single contract and a 1225.00 stop-loss.  The cost basis for the position, reduced by two profit-taking opportunities, is 1174.40.  That means if the stop-loss is hit we'll come away with a theoretical profit of about $5060.  The details of this trade can be found by clicking The Scoreboard tab in the chat room. Night owls should check the chart (inset) for a potential bottom-fishing foray this evening.

April Gold was in a moderate sell-off in after-hours trading Tuesday night after having achieved the 1265.70 rally target show. Night owls might enjoy success bottom-fishing at the 1241.70 corrective target of a lesser pattern (15-minute, a=1259.30 at 12:30 p.m. EST), using a stop-loss as tight as four ticks. If that Hidden Pivot fails to reverse the downtrend, expect further slippage to the 1236.10 downside target of yet another pattern (20-minute, a=1264.90 on 2/27 at 11:40 a.m.; b= 1248.20 on 2/28 at 1:40 p.m.).  It looks very promising for catching a swing low precisely.  You could also get short to that number if and when 1244.50 has been penetrated to the downside by perhaps 1.20-1.50.  At a more subjective level, I should say that gold's rallies have been disappointing in the way that we might expect if bullion were still in a bear market. Gold (and silver) have rallied enough to keep bulls engaged and hopeful, but little more. It often feels like investors are being strung along by upthrusts that, while encouraging, are unable to get legs. I discussed this with Cory Fleck this morning in my daily interview with Korelin Economic Report. To access the recording, click here. _______ UPDATE (Mar 1, 10:56 p.m. EST): The futures have bounced $14 so far after bottoming $1.10 from the 1236.10 target given above. The trouble is, the bounce narrowly failed to surpass the 'external' peak I've labeled at 1252.80 (see inset, a new chart). The move is bullishly impulsive, to be sure, just not bullish enough so far for a presumption of significantly higher prices. To get things rolling, buyer will need to close this vehicle above the 1253.90 midpoint pivot, or trade through it by at least $3-$4 intraday.  Thereupon, the 1270.60 target would become my minimum upside objective

For tracking purposes, we hold a single contract with a cost-basis reduced by profit-taking to 1174.80. The original four-contract position was purchased off a simple instruction sent out to paying subscribers on Feb 16: "place a 'mechanical' bid at 1227.10, stop 1217.40." As it happened, the stop was never even remotely challenged when the futures swooned to our bid five days later and turned sharply higher from 1226.80, just three ticks below it  The price target all along was 1255.80, but because that Hidden Pivot was exceeded on Friday, I feel comfortable swinging for the fences with the contract that remains. That implies we're shooting for the 1281.50 target shown, at least. Note that bulls would still have quite a climb ahead of them to refresh the bullish impulsiveness of the daily chart, since that would require a print exceeding the election night high at 1343.90.

With Thursday's balky rally, April Gold remains on track to hit the 1255.80 target shown. Traders who are not already on board can use a 'camouflage' or 'counterintuitive' entry trigger fashioned at the red line, but I wouldn't advise a 'mechanical' one there because gold's gratuitous swoons have been pretty nasty lately.  That said, you could still try a 'mechanical' entry at the green line (1227.10), stop 1217.40, although your bid would of course go unfilled if the futures simply head higher on Friday. If you're unfamiliar with 'camo' and 'CI' entry tactics, stay tuned to the chat room discussion, since there are a number of Hidden Pivot Method experts (aka 'Pivoteers') who have been actively trading this vehicle. ______ UPDATE (Feb 20, 8:34 p.m. EST): The futures were weak on Friday, but that has not altered my trading guidance (see above).

With Thursday’s balky rally, April Gold remains on track to hit the 1255.80 target shown. Traders who are not already on board can use a ‘camouflage’ or ‘counterintuitive’ entry trigger fashioned at the red line, but I wouldn’t advise a ‘mechanical’ one there because gold’s gratuitous swoons have been pretty nasty lately.  That said, you could still try a ‘mechanical’ entry at the green line (1227.10), stop 1217.40, although your bid would of course go unfilled if the futures simply head higher on Friday. If you’re unfamiliar with ‘camo’ and ‘CI’ entry tactics, stay tuned to the chat room discussion, since there are a number of Hidden Pivot Method experts (aka ‘Pivoteers’) who have been actively trading this vehicle. ______ UPDATE (Feb 20, 8:34 p.m. EST): The futures were weak on Friday, but that has not altered my trading guidance (see above). _______ UPDATE (Feb 21, 3:54 p.m.): The trade instruction detailed above worked perfectly when the futures swooned gratuitously this morning to an intraday low at 1226.80. That means anyone who followed my advice caught the $13.10 trampoline bounce that has so far ensued. In the chat room, with a post at 12:45 p.m., I further advised taking off half of the four-contract position with the futures trading near 1239.10. For purpose of providing tracking guidance in the days ahead, I will assume two contracts still held, with a cost basis of 1215.10. We'll swing for the fences on this trade -- meaning for at least 1255.80 -- but you should still place an 'impulsive' stop-loss at 1225.00 for the time being. As is my practice, I am providing this guidance because several subscribers reported having done the trade in the chat room.  _______ UPDATE (Feb 23, 11:38 a.m.): The little sonofabitch is once again moving our way. Offer