Gold

Gold's robust rally paused for just long enough on Wednesday to discourage bulls -- including your editor, who had advised a long position in GDX with a stop-loss far more generous than is typical for a Rick's Picks trade.  Unfortunately, it wasn't generous enough to weather the gratuitous swoon shown in the chart (see inset), although it did leave the 1210.50 rally target we'd been using intact. I've lowered the target slightly, to 1209.80, to conform to a 'one-off' low at 1147.20 that looks likely to produce a more accurate short-term top. The new target can also serve as a minimum upside objective for the near-term; and the more accurate pattern, to set up precise 'mechanical' trades in accordance with our simple rules.  Although the trade in GDX didn't work, a 'mechanical' buy in the futures at the green line manifestly did. We'll file the results in the backs of our trading brains, lest we feel intimidated by whatever treacheries lie ahead. In the meantime, it's hard not to regard today's fleeting plunge as other than bullish, since its effect was to plant doubts in the minds of bulls. A rally with a bunch of giddy optimists aboard is not destined for longevity, and that's why we should be heartened by the nastiness of this morning's little fooler. _______ UPDATE (Jan 12, 9:40 p.m. EST): The rally came within $2.60 of our target before relapsing   for no particular reason. Let's focus for now solely on 'counterintuitive trades to get long. Night owls can use (possible) A= 1189.50 (Jan 11, 4 p.m.) on the hourly chart for this, otherwise we'll wait for a slide down to  (possible) A=1177.00.

The rally stalled very precisely today at an 1190.80 'hidden' midpoint resistance associated with a 1210.50 target (see inset). The stall in itself does not tell us whether buyers or sellers will prevail over the next day or two, but it does imply that a decisive (i.e., $2 to $3) thrust past the resistance would become an odds-on bet to reach 1210.50. We might also expect a tradable pullback from that price, or very close to it, implying that longs could either reverse positions and get short there, or perhaps put on an option hedge.  (Note: Some subscribers were able to get long intraday, but I haven't established a tracking position because the futures didn't pull back far enough to trip the bid I'd suggested.)

Gold's rally, which took off in earnest a week ago, signaled more to come on Thursday when it pushed above two prior peaks on the daily chart (see inset). This indicates a new and healthy trend, according to the proprietary Hidden Pivot Method that we use to trade and forecast the markets. Notice that with just a little more oomph, the March contract could surpass two additional 'external' peaks on the daily chart (see inset). That would put them within a few ticks of tripping a theoretical 'buy' signal, shifting our focus, if not yet our expectations, to the 1434.80 target. Buyers would still face crucial resistance at the red line, a 'midpoint pivot' at 1279.60, but that would become the minimum upside objective once the green line has been exceeded decisively (i.e., by $2 to $3). Yes In the  meantime, subscribers should stay tuned to the chat room, since tradable ideas in this vehicle are getting a pretty good play in real time. _______ UPDATE (Jan 9, 8:58 p.m. EST): Consider using either of these two lows on the 60-minute chart as a point 'A' to fashion a 'counterintuitive' entry: 1177.40 (11 a.m. EST today); or 1173.00 (1:00 a.m.). There is scant evidence that Gold has made a significant top -- only a minor, bearish impulse leg on the 15-minute chart: a=1185.20 (3:15 p.m.); b=1180.00; c=1183.80 (click here to see the chart). Even f this evening's weakness breaches d=1178.60, I'd still be game to try the 'counterintuitive' set-up off A=1177.40.

The sluggish uptrend begun in mid-December appeared to pick up steam as 2017 got under way.  The even better news is that the intraday swings have been easily tradable and targetable. (Check out Tuesday's chat room discussion for reports from subscribers who actually made hay. If you don't already subscribe, click here for a free two-week trial period that will get you into the room immediately and allow you to view a trading 'Scoreboard' updated 24/7 with actionable ideas.)  One such trade was a 'counterintuitive' long entry, noted by an alert subscriber, at the green line (see inset).  Although the trade initially went against buyers, subscribers who applied a simple rule avoided getting stopped out and subsequently got a ride to the 1165.50 target -- precisely -- for a quick gain of as much as $1400 per contract. Although the futures retraced moderately before the regular session ended, they looked poised for another leap to as high as 1174.20. That target will remain viable as long as the recent low at 1156.70 holds. Thereupon, if the rally pushes decisively past 1165.50, a further move to 1174.20 would in my estimation become an odds-on bet. _______ UPDATE (Jan 4, 9:58 p.m. ET): Late Tuesday night, the futures were within an inch of the 1174.20 target proffered above. If they can smash through it on the first attempt, that would add to the evidence that this rally is more than just a flash-in-the-pan. _______ UPDATE (Jan 5, 9:53 a.m.): The rally easily surpassed the target, hitting 1179.90 before pulling back. Bulls are now working on an 1189.70 target that would become an odds-on bet to be reached if the futures can push decisively past a related, 'midpoint' resistance at 1180.40. Please note that, despite the encouraging overnight performance, the yellow flag is

The last of four February Comex futures contracts acquired by subscribers two days ago should have been exited early Thursday morning at 1149.90 for a total profit of about $3800. The 'dynamic' stop-loss at 1149.90 was triggered by a $1.40 drop from the high at the time, 1151.30. Based on reports in the chat room, numerous subscribers actually did the trade, which was posted, and then continuously updated, in real time here and on the chat room 'Scoreboard.'  Looking just ahead, buyers' ability on Thursday to blow past the 1155.50 target we'd used for the trade suggests there's still some pent-up energy ready to push gold even higher. The nearest Hidden Pivot resistance lies at 1164.00 (60-min, A=1124.30 on 12/15; B=1151.70 on 12/27), but if it too gets shredded, so will the key external peak at 1168.00 recorded on 12/14. That would refresh the bullish energy of the intraday charts, making it more likely that 2017 will begin with a bang for bullion. ________ BULLETIN UPDATE (8:19 p.m.): The futures just touched 1164.00. Let's see if they can get past it! _______ UPDATE (Jan 1): The futures did NOT get past the Hidden Pivot resistance. In fact, they sold off $13 after topping at 1164.30. This is no reason for gold bulls to despair, but it is certainly disappointing. The hourly chart remains slightly bullish, but it would take a print at 1168.20 -- and the sooner the better -- to make it unambiguously so.

The futures have tripped a 'conventional' buy signal this evening after retracing most of the rally that occurred in the dead of night. With a target at 1155.50, there's about $14 of immediate upside potential. Accordingly, I'll recommend using a 'mechanical' bid at 1141.30.  This implies the futures must hover above the green green line for at least three bars after exceeding it and that, furthermore, the low end of those bars must not touch the line. An 1136.50 stop-loss would be required, but you can use 'camouflage' to cut the theoretical entry risk of $480 per contract by as much as 90%. The trade seems likely to trigger in the wee hours if at all, but if this hasn't occurred by Wednesday's regular-session opening, check in the chat room for further guidance. _______ UPDATE (Dec 28, 11:22 p.m. ET): We have an active trade on in this vehicle that is showing a theoretical profit of $960 at current prices.  Sell a third contract now, with the futures trading a few ticks from p2=1150.80. The 1155.50 target can be used for exiting the remaining contract, tied to a 'dynamic trailing stop' that should shrink, always holding risk:reward at 1:3, as the target is approached.

The rally from the December 15 low at 51.10 is merely corrective due to its failure to take out the 'external' peak at 53.80 shown in the chart (see inset). If buyers fail at this for another day or two, we could see the Feb contract relapse to p=51.70. It would be a fetching speculative buy at that price, but we won't try to jump the gun with a bid at these levels. Alternatively, a pop on Tuesday could be expected to hit 54.30 by Wednesday's close. Traders could use p=53.19 to establish a 'mechanical' bid once the pivot has been exceeded for several bars. This trade should be attempted only if you are comfortable with the simple rules governing this type of trade.  For guidance in real time stay close to the chat room, since crude has an avid following there._______ UPDATE (Dec 27, 7:39 p.m. ET): The 54.30 target I provided in the chat room remains valid, based on this 60-minute pattern: A=51.57 (12/16); B= 53.79 (12/21); C=52.08. This evening's pullback to p2=53.75 can be bought 'mechanically', but the required 53.57 stop-loss would not leave much room for error. Two possible alternatives: using camouflage, via the 5-minute chart or less, to generate a 'buy' signal; or using a mechanical bid at 53.19, stop 52.82. That last tactic would be the easiest way to go, but there are no guarantees the pullback will come down to the pivot. I am not recommending shorting at 54.30 to anyone who hasn't caught a profitable piece of the rally. _______ UPDATE (Dec 28, 11:49 p.m.): The tracking trade was closed out a single penny from the recent top for a theoretical gain of $510 per contract. Since no subscribers reported reversing the position and getting short at the peak of the rally,

An 1105.80 downside target has obtained since November 18, when Feb Gold tripped a menacing sell signal just above 1200.  On redrawing the chart, however, I find that the target should have been given as 1108.70, with 1086.60 as an alternative if Hidden Pivot support at the higher number fails.  Were that last number to be reached, gold will have given up 90% of the gains achieved since the rally commenced exactly a year ago. And if the 1055.20 low that marked the beginning of the six-month rally to 1387.10 is breached, it would return our focus to an 820 target first aired here in 2013 when the futures were trading around 1280. However, I won't pull it out of mothballs until such time as 1055.20 gives way, since there's always a possibility that Mr. Market will test bulls to their utmost before the long-term uptrend dating back nearly 15 years resumes. _______ UPDATE (Dec 26, 10:45 p.m. ET): Trading in gold has resumed Monday evening with a weakly impulsive rally.  Night owls looking to get aboard should consider the following pattern. It is slightly camouflage-y at the moment because 'b' exceeded some prior peaks only marginally: a=1132.80 (12/26 at 9:00 p.m.); b=1138.20 (?).

Gold's relentless plunge appeared to be on-track to hit the 1149.40 target shown within the next 3-5 days. If that Hidden Pivot support should give way easily -- meaning, be exceeded on first contact by more than $1.50 or so -- we'll likely be looking at a further fall to 1105.80.  The selloff was too steep to generate any 'mechanical' shorting opportunities over the last several hours, but you should look for such opportunities on charts of smaller degree, starting with 15-minute bars.  Presently, that would imply shorting from x=1173.70 using this pattern: A=1188.60 (11/30 at 8:45 a.m.); B= 1171.30. _______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 12:56 p.m. EST): No change. Feb Gold would need to rally to 1223.60 to get out of immediate jeopardy. That corresponds to a price peak at 1223.50 recorded on Nov 22. _______ UPDATE (Dec 7, 8:546 p.m.): Gold isn't acting as feisty as silver, but the March contract at least generated a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart with Wednesday's moderate rally. It projects to 1189.10 (a=1167.20 on 12/6), but buyers will need to do a little better, pushing this vehicle above December 4's 1190.20 'external' peak, to refresh the bullish energy of the intraday charts._______ UPDATE (Dec 8, 9:54 p.m.): Today's swan dive killed the encouraging look of the hourly chart. Now it would take nothing less than 1190.30 to put bulls back on track. Regardless, the 1149.40 target given above, as well as the one at 1105.80, remain viable. _______ UPDATE (Dec 13, 9:31 p.m.): Monday's low at 1152.50 is close enough to the 1149.40 target given above that we might look for an upturn from these levels. However, the rally would need to surpass 1173.80, and soon, to have bullish implications for the near term.