Silver

I gave up trying to find subscribers who may have bought down at 20.155 last Friday based on the limit bid I'd advised. Had I established a tracking position, however, we'd be long 25% of the original position and swinging for the fences. Instead, I'll assume a fresh start by noting first of all that September Silver is a theoretical 'mechanical' buy with tonight's pullback to the green line. The trade is appealing because there are two ABC uptrends driving the futures at the  moment: the big pattern begun from 17.585 on 6/28; and a lesser one begun from 19.985 on 7/27 (or alternatively, if we need it, from 19.490 on 7/25).  Since a mechanical bid implies about $4500 of entry risk per contract, however, we'll look to get long via 'camouflage', using an uptrending ABC pattern on the 5-minute chart or less. It will take vigilance to identify such an opportunity if and when it occurs, so I'm going to crowd-source this task to Pivoteers in the chat room who have an eye for subtleties. _______ UPDATE (August 4, 8:32 p.m. EDT): Silver took a sprightly bounce from just below the green line (see above), but there was little evidence that subscribers were able to make use of it as suggested above. A 'camouflage' entry was possible, as was a 'counterintuitive' one, but these tactics would have required more than average skill to execute. I'll continue to flag opportunities in this vehicle as they arise, but the gambit advised above has exhausted the supply of immediate possibilities intended for general consumption.  However, night owls confident in their Hidden Pivot chops should consider tightly-stopped bottom-fishing at the 20.225 midpoint support of this shapely pattern on the 60-minute: a=20.730 (8/3 at 9:00 a.m.); b=20.080 (8/3 at 11:00 p.m.); and c=20.550 (8/4).

With September Silver's breakout yesterday, we can use the very bullish pattern shown and its 22.910 target to exploit the rhythm of this move.  The 120-minute chart will need a few more bars of loft before a pullback to the green line would become a 'mechanical' buy, stop 19.265, but the initial thrust is already powerful enough to warrant an aggressively bullish trading bias. ______ UPDATE (July 28, 7:08 p.m. EDT): With a dip to 20.155 late in today's session (see inset), the futures tripped a 'mechanical' buy signal, stop 19.850, for a ride to p=21.090 or higher. (Please note that the stop-loss is conservatively predicated on a move to p rather than to D.) If the entry risk seems scary, consider a belated entry using a 'camouflage' abc uptrend on the three-minute chart or less. Please report any fills in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position if warranted._______ UPDATE (July 29, 1:33 p.m.) Any reports?  If you executed the trade as detailed above, your position is showing a gain at the moment of about $810 per contract. I'd suggest taking a partial profit here, setting a break-even stop for what remains, and swinging for the fences.  In any case, with an excellent entry point established, you're on your own. ________ UPDATE (August 1, 2:35 a.m.) I'm still looking for signs of life in the chat room. Did anyone do this trade, which could have been executed with a simple limit order and the stop-loss advised?? At tonight's high, the position was showing a theoretical gain of $2700 per contract.

Today’s sharp reversal changed a weak bearish trend into a mildly promising bull trend. The big pattern shown, with a 21.390 target, is valid because a ‘buy’ signal has been tripped at the green line. The signal is ‘counterintuitive’ because of the close proximity in price of lows ‘A’ and ‘C’.  Since entry risk using the big pattern is exorbitant, I’d suggest cutting it down to size by using ‘camouflage’. This means finding tradable ABC patterns on the very lesser charts that use impulse legs derived from any of the ten or so ‘external’ peaks (indicated with red arrows) made on the way down since July 12. Bulls could breathe a sigh of relief once the 20.330 midpoint resistance has been surpassed, but strictly speaking, the futures will need to get past peaks #1 and #2 to put bulls back on the rampage. _______ UPDATE (July 23, 12:58 p.m....July 25, 7:15 p.m.): No change.

I've aired short-term rally targets as high as 21.730 recently, but the pattern shown, just to be cautious, shows another at 21.400 that could be reached as early as Monday or Tuesday. We'll slide the point 'A' low down to 17.585 (6/28) if we need to, and that would generate a 22.920 target. For now, though, let's use the pattern shown and its Hidden Pivot levels (p and p2) to board 'mechanically' or via camouflage as opportunities arise.  Although the futures stalled very near the 20.340 midpoint on Friday, they would need to pull back from it sharply on Monday to confirm the pattern. If and when that happens, the value of p, p2 and D for trading purposes will be significantly enhanced because we'll be able to assume they'll work precisely.

The highest rally target I could have projected using the weekly chart (see inset) was overwhelmed Sunday night when markets opened for abbreviated holiday-weekend trading.  This strongly implies the buying will continue, although buyers will need to push above some key 'external' peaks made on the way down in 2013 and 2014 to put the presumptive bull market into cruising gear for the long haul. The first of those peaks lies at 21.525, a relatively easy 43 cents above Sunday night's peak. Once the futures are trading above it, long-term investors could breathe a sigh of relief and look forward to a long and rewarding ride. An even more important peak lies at 25.120, and if it is decisively exceeded, a further push up into a band of resistance centered around $32 would become an odds-on bet. Traders can use any of the 'external peaks, including the lesser ones denoted with an 'x', to set up 'camouflage' or 'mechanical' entry opportunities as the futures move higher. ______ UPDATE (July 6, 12:48 a.m.): On the hourly chart, the September contract would put a 21.730 rally target in play if the futures push decisively above 20.670.  That's the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of a pattern using the following coordinates: A=19.105 (July 1, 7:00 a.m.); B= 21.225 ( July 3); and C= 19.610.

By popular request, I've added Comex Silver to the list of touts tonight -- and not a moment too soon, evidently, since the September contract is closing fast on a 19.010 target that looks capable of putting the kibosh on the rally, at least for a short while. A marginally higher target at 19.210 would be in play if the lower number is exceeded by more than 2-3 cents. Either way, Silver's parabolic rise since early June is due for a rest, so we should pay heed to the technical signs. Aggressive play calls for shorting at either of these Hidden Pivots, but I would strongly suggest that you use 'camouflage' to initiate the trade, since even a few ticks of adversity in this vehicle can be expensive.  'Camouflage' here implies shorting the first downtrending abc pattern that meets our rules if and when one of the two target is reached or very closely approached. For guidance in real time tune to the chat room, since there are always a few Hidden Pivot experts around to crowd-source a potentially tradable idea. _______ UPDATE (July 1, 12:52 a.m.): The futures have blown past both of the targets given above, implying there may be considerable buying power remaining to be spent. I say “may be”  because there is yet one more target just above, at 19.250, that could stop the rally. Price action at this target will not likely be penny-precise because it comes from a continuous chart that is based on the July contract, but the pivot should be accurate enough to allow us to gauge the power of the move. Using the same continuous weekly chart -- again, with a small margin of error that I will correct when the continuous chart switches to the September contract -- the highest Hidden

The tortuous, choppy gains of the last few days belie the power of a far bigger uptrend that has been pushing Silver since early April.  To be sure, buyers have not exactly made short work of the 17.380 midpoint pivot in recent days. However, it would take but a 20-cent rally from current levels to turn this stubborn resistance into support. Thereafter, a pullback to the red line could be used to effect a 'mechanical' buy for a shot at 18.155, or perhaps 18.930, over the next 5-8 days. _______ UPDATE (June 15, 8:52 p.m. EDT): Today's feisty rally has significantly shortened the odds of a further push to at least 18.155.  The 17.380 midpoint pivot can still be used for a 'mechanical' buy, stop 16.860, if the futures return to it. Consider a 'camouflage' entry, however, if the initial theoretical risk of $520 per contract is too stressful. ______ UPDATE (June 16, 11:22 p.m.): Any reports?

July Silver's weekly chart shows why bulls should be optimistic. Notice how the A-B 'booster stage' of a possible bull market exceeded three prior peaks (see inset), two of them 'external', before buyers took a breather. This offers strong evidence that the sell-off from early May's high near $18 is merely corrective and extremely unlikely to wipe out 2016's gains. A theoretical 'buy' signal would trip at 16.638, and although we can use camouflage to get long there with relatively little risk, my hunch is that Comex Silver is not yet ready for a big leg up to match April's. In the meantime, we shouldn't fear a further pullback to as low as 15.000, since that could set up a very opportune 'counterintuitive' trade that could allow us to back up the truck with entry risk tightly controlled. ______ UPDATE (June 8, 10:49 a.m. EDT): Please note that 16.638 is not to be construed as a go-ahead signal unless you are looking to 'camouflage' your way aboard today. The hourly chart rules at the moment (A=14.960 on 4/6), and I'd like to see a two-day close above p=17.380 to be persuaded the rally is for real. The 'D' target associated with that number is 18.930. _______ UPDATE (8:15 p.m.): This is the most encouraging rally we've seen in a while, but we should still require the futures to take out the 17.380 midpoint Hidden Pivot noted above before we uncork the bubbly. I've refreshed the chart to show the rally pattern controlling the move. The way the futures are acting Wednesday night after barely correcting, it may not be long before we can confidently infer the 18.930 target will be reached. _______ UPDATE (June 12, 4:26 p.m.): Friday's weak rally stalled at 17.380 exactly, confirming the bullish pattern we've been

Silver has been on a rampage for the last two weeks and looks eager to continue its winning streak.  The powerful rally in the first few days of October not only exceeded three 'external' peaks on the daily chart without pausing for breath, it also gave way to a consolidation that looks capable of sling-shotting the futures into a second rally leg as powerful as the first. As long as each new thrust exceeds a prior peak on the daily chart, we can infer that the rally is sufficiently robust to continue. A further implication is that the pullbacks following each such 'impulsive' thrust will be corrective and therefore buy-able.  Most immediately, expect December Silver to encounter tough resistance at exactly 16.253. I'll be looking for a pullback there, possibly tradable. However, if the futures blow past it, the next stop would be p2=16.691, and thence 17.130. An easy move through that last number would imply buyers are ready to challenge May's 17.850 peak, and possibly the one at 18.600 that occurred in January. _______ UPDATE (October 18, 6:58 p.m.): In seven days of tedious slogging, the futures have yet to touch the 16.253 resistance, let alone impale it. Neither have they fallen, however, so bulls still hold the edge and will continue to do so unless 15.375 is exceeded to the downside. _______ UPDATE (October 27, 1:40 a.m.): Zzzzzzzz. The futures need to close above p=15.928 to set up a push to the nearest rally target, d=16.150 (see inset, a new chart).