Missile Threat Eclipses All ‘Investable Ideas’

The chart shows the same hopeful, best-case scenario for Silver as the one presented in the Gold tout. The May contract tripped a theoretical buy signal on Friday when it touched the green line, and now it need only push above p=77.99 to tip the odds strongly back in bulls’ favor. As is the case in gold, however, and as I have stated, this is not the most likely outcome, and the alternative would be further slippage to at least 56.32. That is the secondary Hidden Pivot of a pattern projecting as low as 42.67 (60m, A=119.20 on Feb 29).

The 6499.50 target I posted in the chat room Friday morning implied that a 100-point drop was coming. It did, almost. I also said the Hidden Pivot support would need to show some pluck to hold a full-blown bear market at bay, at least for a while.  We didn’t get the test we were looking for because the pattern proved too obvious and its target got front-run with ES 60 points above it; however, a test is coming nonetheless. Stay focused this week on my magic number, and don’t accept anything less than a rally above C=6903.00 as minimal evidence the bull market is still breathing.

The pattern shown is not of the bluest pedigree because of its obviousness. However, it is almost certain to be useful if you plan to trade the big swings or merely want to know with confidence how oil prices are likely to behave in the weeks and months ahead. The chart is a composite, so don’t expect  the levels to perform exactly. However, even so-so patterns have midpoint Hidden Pivots that ‘work’, so we should take last week’s stall precisely at p as a sign of this particular pattern’s reliability.  We don’t know yet whether the futures are about to blow past p=116.89, but if they do, take it as a sign they are not merely capable of reaching a record 178.89, but that this is likely. Also, although a relapse to the green line (x=85.89) would likely produce a global sigh of relief, from our perspective it would set up a juicy ‘mechanical’ buy, stop 54.88, that implies yet another big price leap capable of incapacitating the global economy.  Bloomberg has quoted the usual Wall Street shills as saying crude prices would have to hit a minimum $128 and stay there for a while to bring on a recession, but these guys are such liars and morons that nothing they say can be trusted. The same could be said of 90% of the news and commentary emanating from Bloomberg, which is the most Trump-deranged of all the major news outlets. They really hate the guy, and everything they report on him has an extremely negative slant, even to the point of their hoping Iran wins the war.

GDXJ has lost a third of its value in just three weeks, exacting a brutal toll on mining-share investors that will test their faith to the utmost.  It would take a rally of at least 7.65 points from any low to trigger a buy signal on the hourly chart (a=  126.88 on 2/17). Using the 102.88 low from Friday would imply a print at 110.53 is necessary to jump-start bulls.  Thereupon, GDXJ would be presumed bound for at least p=118.19, or to 133.49 under the most bullish circumstances. This is similar to the best-case scenario I’ve detailed in my touts for Comex Gold and Silver, but it is hardly a good bet.

Rates on the 10-Year Note came within a hair on Friday of lows not seen since October. My suggestion is to enjoy it while it lasts, since the intraday bottom closely coincided with a Hidden Pivot target at 3.952%. The actual low was 3.956%, which was near enough to consider the target fulfilled. Alternatively, if the downtrend continues on Monday, breaching not just the target but October’s 3.976% bottom, be ready for more slippage to 3.917%, a voodoo number worth bottom-fishing with as tight a stop-loss as you’re comfortable with. _______ UPDATE (Mar 7): It looks like the prediction of an important low hit a bullseye, since this vehicle has since trampolined as high as 4.19% after bottoming a split hair from the 3.952 target. Here’s the chart. _____ UPDATE (March 15): And now rates have rebounded to as high as 4.29%.  Too bad the talking heads on Bloomberg and MSNBC, the Fed board of governors and the Wall Street Journal editorialists were unaware of the potentially major turn-up when my forecast caught its exact low, since precisely accurate technical forecasts are unknown in their world of bullshit metadata.