If Yen Is Unstoppable, So Is Dollar’s Collapse

Take a look at the graph below if you think the central banks have things under control. The chart shows the yenโ€™s relentless rise since summer, punctuated by a single, nasty plunge on September 15. That was the day the Bank of Japan intervened in the currency markets for the first time in six years, prompted by concerns that the yenโ€™s steep rise would hurt Japanโ€™s export-based economy, and by the fact that the yen had recently spiked to a 15-year high versus the dollar. The intervention obviously failed, since the yen quickly recouped the loss and is now trading significantly higher than before the intervention.ย  Because we have heard little from the Japanese since, however, we can only infer that they know enough to shut up rather than pretend they can bully speculators. Repeat a threat often enough, and eventually you become a laughing stock.

On September 15, the Bank of Japen tried to stop the Yen's rise

If Japan has thrown everything but the kitchen sink at the yen with no success, one can only imagine what itโ€™s going to be like when itโ€™s the Fedโ€™s turn to โ€œmanageโ€ the U.S. dollar. So far, the dollar has managed itself, albeit with plenty of help from central banks around the world that are even more keen on beating down their respective currencies than the U.S. is the dollar.ย  But this is just small potatoes, a warm-up before the fat lady sings.ย  Japanโ€™s efforts to push down the yen have been geared toward padding the profits of its domestic manufacturers, and the scope of these efforts has therefore been commensurate in size with actual trade in physical goods. But the sums involved pale in comparison to the nearly quadrillion-dollar shell game that the worldโ€™s financiers have created with dollar-denominated securities. Donโ€™t even think about trying to push that market around when it discovers itโ€™s got a mind of its own.

1000-Year Tide

Of course, Americaโ€™s wonโ€™t be trying to push the dollar down, but to keep it from collapsing. This hasnโ€™t been a concern until now because the U.S. policy on the dollar has been to simply let it ease lower, much as it has been, and notwithstanding Geithnerโ€™s occasional, hollow assertions that the U.S. favors aโ€ strongโ€ dollar. There are signs, however, that the dollarโ€™s more or less controlled drift lower could accelerate without warning and turn into a global rout. One is the relentless rise of gold and silver prices. Another is that China, with $2.3 trillion of reserves, has become an aggressive seller of U.S. Treasurys. Japan, as well as U.S. dealers glutted with easy money, have picked up some of the slack, but increasingly it is the Federal Reserve that has been buying the debt that foreigners no longer want. If you need further convincing that the dollarโ€™s cachet has diminished around the world, consider that even the Russians, who for decades craved dollars on the black market, now shun the greenback, favoring rubles to play in one of the hottest asset markets in the world.

It should have been obvious all alongย that it would ultimately be the collapse of the dollar — the 50,000-pound gorillaย of the global financial system — that would end the illusion that the central banks are all-powerful.ย  One of these days thisย willย become all-too-clear, for the bankers will be going up against a millennialย tide of fiat money.

(If youโ€™d like to have Rickโ€™s Picks commentary delivered free each day to your e-mail box, click here.)

  • Bam_Man October 11, 2010, 6:05 pm

    I don’t think there is any question that the first of the major currencies to “go to money heaven” will be the Japanese Yen.

    The counter-intuitive Yen appreciation we are now witnessing is in fact that currency’s “death rattle”. The Japanese are now unwinding a multitude of carry trades in order to repatriate and liquidate their foreign investments. After 13 years of ZIRP, they are now being forced to consume their seed corn. This is how the end game will play out for all the major currencies and it is totally consistent with Rick’s thesis. A slow deflation accompanied by an excruciating currency appreciation, followed by a lightning-fast currency and bond market collapse resulting in a hyperinflation.

  • Tim October 11, 2010, 3:55 pm

    The only reason that the dollar is not crashing for good and yo yo’s around against other currencies is that its in a reverse beauty contest with the crown going to the biggest pig. The FX markets go thru a sort of bully cycle, where everyone picks on the currency of the moment and then moves on in a cyclical fashion. When the euro was strong against the USD, everyone was conviently forgetting the 15T in bad loans sitting with the PIGS. Then like pass the parcel it was spotlight on the Med and oh how wonderful the safe haven of the FX world is. Rinse repeat.

    Thats why gold exists because the world could all get together and each print 10T prorata and as long as they did it together there would be no change in FX.

    Gold is the bottom of the inverted pyramid, eventually the force of gravity will pull it all in.

  • Max October 11, 2010, 2:10 pm

    Hey Rick,

    what do you think would happen if we had another GFC?
    In 2008, the AUD collapsed from 98c to 60c against the USD despite the Australian economy was the best one of the major countries. That was mainly because in a time of fear, everyone seeks a safe heaven and they chose the USD.
    Would they still chose the USD? Hard to answer.

    &&&&&&

    Australia is well positioned to prosper from Asia’s rise from the ashes of the Second Great Depression. Next to gold and silver, Aussie mineral-resource and energy stocks are my favorite long-term investment. RA

  • Charles Duke October 11, 2010, 6:11 am

    IMO the gold price will react similar to what the Latin currencies did against the dollar when they were devalued.
    They reset to a new level against the dollar and usually maintain a value around that area for a period of time such as Brazilian devaluation around 1994.
    I expect gold to reach a new level and maintain that for a considerable period as we achieve a sort of quasi gold standard.

  • ricecake October 11, 2010, 5:34 am

    “Dollar’s Collapse is unstoppable…” Not so fast! In 2006, it was 2 US dollar to exchange 1 British pound sterling, in 2007, it was 1.6 US dollar to exchange 1 Euro. Now the dollar is still much higher than then. All’s relativity in the world we are living in. The world don’t want the dollar to collapse. Therefore, the Dollar stays where it always be – remain one of the world’s strong currency.

    Americans should learn from the Germans and Swiss both countries have the strongest currencies. Their exports are always stable and great not because of their currencies cheap but because of the high quality of their unique products and innovation. People all over the world especial the Asians and Chinese love German, French, Italian goods.. European made goods have great market all over the world. When I go visit my relative in China, I always have problem what to bring them. They are not interested anything made in China. They want something foreign made. I’m always proudly bring them something made in the USA. Americans must rebuild Americans manufacture and to make stylish, high quality, unique Americans goods again!

    p.s. China Premier Wen had said “China facing Double Dip 2nd recession in May this year.” Believe what he said. In the process of restructuring China’s economy and development, China is starting to put less emphasis on GDP from now on because of all the waste, loses in profit, and unattainability. Chinese discovered they had been the suckers of the world doing most of the world’s economic heavy weight lifting. They have the economic GDP rush fever, running way ahead of everyone in the world. It’s not the rest of the world who are sickest. China is the sickest one.

    A Chinese major CCTV commentator pointed out that the billions eager Chinese consumers behave like the Locust plague that threatens Aussie crop. They are learning from the Americans consumers and that is every bad to the world.

    I believe things will slow down over there, just like the Yuan’s appreciation process, it’s slow.

    • uninformedLuddite October 12, 2010, 3:54 am

      You’re off in fantasy land aren’t you? Your Chinese relatives want products that are made in the USA? LOL – You must be a shill

    • ricecake October 16, 2010, 6:32 pm

      @uninformedLuddite, America is hopeless because of the people like you.

      I’m doing my shopping list now for my next trip to China, buying American made things only just let you known. One of the items I think will be “Laughing Cow Cheese.”

      &&&&&

      Not sure if Laughing Cow is actual cheese, Mr. Ricecake, or, rather, a “pasteurized, processed cheese food”. Anyway, I’d check the label before you load up on the stuff. RA

  • Daman Prakash October 11, 2010, 4:59 am

    May be not widely known, Indian authorities have allowed two more exchanges to allow public through to deal in foreign exchanges against Indian currency Rupee. Till recently any holding beyond USD 10000 was punishable for general public.

    The volumes at initial phase itself are huge and bandwagon is set to roll creating demand for greenbucks. India is import depedent country, trade deficit is huge and likely to expand as Indians are way behind Chinese in exports.

  • TC October 11, 2010, 4:11 am

    I second DarkestKnight’s comment…. Rick is no longer a dollar bull???

  • gary leibowitz October 11, 2010, 3:57 am

    The dollar has been orchestrated down for many years by both Bush and Obama. I see no reason to believe this will not continue. Expecting a total collapse from here just doesn’t make sense. The EU is having even more problems and China has clearly found some bubbles develop internally.

    Gold has never had staying power once the bubble bursts. In fact they have had dramatic reversals of fortune. I suspect as long as the dollar is allowed to fall further Gold and most commodities will ride the tide. I do not think these (metals) commodities are in strong hands. If the only reason people are holding is against a total collapse of all currencies or hyperinflation then I would say that is indeed a long shot.

    The only true way to tell how strong Gold is, is to wait for a dramatic pullback in equities. In all other instance they fell in sync. I now suspect we will not have any dramatic moves in equities till March at the earliest. Gold, for now, seems like a good play. The expectations and assumptions that we are in an early stages of a gold rally is not one I would bet on. Just as it wasn’t wise to expect the gulf spill to be anything other than another news clip for the top 10 2010 forgotten disasters.

    I do suspect the best laid plans by this administration will be thwarted by politicans survivial instincts. In other words watch for protectionist measures, especially after November. This will be the final straw for equities. I also suspect Gold will not recover either.

    • mario cavolo October 11, 2010, 9:06 am

      …Hi Gary ๐Ÿ™‚ …..here’s the thing I keep wondering about… how can we see a dramatic pullback or drop in equities in a low interest rate environment….in 90% of previous instances it happens only when interest rates were higher, not the current and expected to continue “Say Goodbye To Yields” environment…imho…

      Cheers, Mario

    • Rick October 11, 2010, 3:10 pm

      Real interest rates can soar, as they already have for hundreds of millions of debtors, most particularly mortgage debtors, around the world. The central bank can only affect nominal rates — up to a point.

    • gary leibowitz October 11, 2010, 5:41 pm

      mario,

      If there is a trade war that starts things going south then bond yields can spike up. Even if the fed’s bond intervention prevents a spike in interest rates, the municipalities will not be so lucky. Local costs will rise and so will unemployment. We are already seeing government job losses. It should accelerate as we go forward.

      The chicken or the egg. Will a rate spike lead equities fall or the other way around. Once debt is preceived to be unpayable the whole thing unravels.

    • Robert October 11, 2010, 6:25 pm

      Gary-

      Your argument is based on a 3 year rolling trend that says that Gold will follow Equities in a downturn.

      Can your forecasts “absorb” the possibility that during one of these cycles, Gold will detach and turn north while equities turn down?

      Here is a scenario for you to envision: since 2007, during periods when equities have gone low to no bid, the Wall Street Banks have sold Comex Gold into the dirt. The Oct 2008 correction was the most severe example, and yet during these “selloffs” inventories of good delivery bullion have evaporated.

      There could be an equities correction that will not effect Bullion prices, and could actually goose them in the other direction, and it could be within the next 3 years- Heck, it could be tomorrow. The trigger would be, as Rick has accurately pointed out in today’s commentary, a mass repatriation of US dollars from strong handed foreign dollar holders (read Chinese and Russians).

      Your premise at the very least has to take this possibility into account, or you will not be properly hedged if it should come to pass…

      There is no mandatory link between Gold and equities. Just because Americans rush to Dollars every time the equity market gets shaky does not mean that this pattern is a law of nature.

    • gary leibowitz October 11, 2010, 6:56 pm

      Robert,

      Sorry if I implied that my scenario is the only one. I just point out that in most boom/bust cycles the currencies always recovered. Gold had cycles that usually reverted back to a sub par state against bonds, equities, etc… Is this time really different? Maybe.

      If deflation is the next nasty surprise then I would do well holding cash, even if our currency devalues against most others.

      If gold does detach from equities during times of stress then I will change my position. I just don’t like to base my premise, or bet, on a new scenario, “this time is different”. It very well could be, but my nature is one where I have to “see” a logical progression or past historicl data. I for one do not see it yet. Perhaps I am slow in discovery.

  • Daman Prakash October 11, 2010, 3:41 am

    I see normal speculative play in dollar. Some 10 months back dollar was trading at 1.5140 with respect to Euro and registered below 1.2 where Euro-dollar started journey, even at this 1.40 appears to have appreciated in last 10 months.

    Likewise dollar index was trading at 70.7 in March 2008 but even to day while we such aggressive headlines in your column, is above that.

    In my opinion we take a line and are happy once we get to see what we like, be it any financial instrument or commodity. Speculators thrive on this psychology.

    Many have learnt from you to stick to numbers without any emotions. Time and again I see dollar bashing sentiments in your reflections, surprising but natural.

    • Rick Ackerman October 11, 2010, 6:37 am

      Conditions change. One of these times — maybe this time — a falling dollar will actually be on its way to oblivion. We can reassess prospects when we see how the Dollar Index reacts the next time it falls to 70. Whatever happens, the flight-to-safety paradigm is an absurd lie that cannot endure forever.

    • mario cavolo October 11, 2010, 9:03 am

      I’m with you Daman…..speculative trading games between the support and resistance extremes…until as Rick says the other shoe finally does drop. But hell, that could be 20 years or longer…we’e nowhere near being in a situation like the tech bubble or Dow 14,000….I think we’ll double those numbers before we see the USD below, say, 60…….in fact, what seems more reaonable to me is that the dollar will ratchet down into a new lower range from 60 to 75…scary at first then everyone will get used to it for a few years….by then gold should be well clear of $2000….

      Cheers, Mario

  • DarkestKnight October 11, 2010, 1:26 am

    I have been an avid follower of your commentaries over the last year or so and got the impression that you were decidedly bullish on the dollar as the debt burden unwound over the next few years (“if stocks head to the levels seen in 1982, so could the dollar”). You saw the eventual collapse of the USD in a hyperinflationary event within the context of that deflationary background. Has your view changed or am I misinterpreting today’s commentary?

    • Rick Ackerman October 11, 2010, 6:22 am

      I am still a hard-core deflationist, DK, and I expect the global asset deflation to run its course over the next several years without ever having provided relief to scores of millions of homeowners whose properties are or will be underwater. But at some point there must be a hyperinflation. (In theory it could start tomorrow, since the dollar is ALREADY fundamentally worthless. However, I doubt that the epiphany needed to trigger such an event is quite that close). The most plausible way for a hyperinflation to occur, as far as I’m concerned, is described by Peter Schiff as follows: 1) Foreigners dump Treasury debt; 2) Fed comes to the “rescue”; 3) “unrescued” debt markets — i.e., state and municipal bonds, and most corporates — collapse, forcing Fed to monetize them all; 4) everyone dumps dollars for tangible goods. They dump other currencies as well, but those that are tied to resource-based economies (i.e., Canada and Australia) eventually recover somewhat, although feebly relative to gold and silver.