Wednesday, August 24, 2011

HUI – Gold Bugs Index (Last:583.74)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Some rally targets slightly above 600 that I'd identified a while back have been achieved, so it's time to stretch the bullish imagination once more.  Notice in the weekly chart that a Hidden Pivot target at 720.13 holds so many charms for the astute Pivoteer, to wit: 1) a coy, one-off point 'A'; 2) a spire-like 'B' that took on some daunting external peak as gracefully as the samurai who wields bamboo instead of steel; and, 3) single-bar coordinates at all three points that say "Hi there!" Nor should we fail to notice that the 541.69 midpoint pivot has been central to the oscillations of a presumptive accumulation that has been developing thrust for ten months. All we can ask for at this point is a feint just a few pips above last April's 609.22 high, since any qualifying pullback from that number would set up an entry opportunity just as this vehicle is finally breaking free of its mooring.

ESU11 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:1149.25)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Yesterday's ostensibly fabulous rally suspiciously fell 1.50 points shy of the 1163.25 midpoint target I'd flagged here. A faint hint of chicken-heartedness, perhaps?  Rather than diss the effort prematurely, let's give them another chance today to get past the Hidden Pivot. Meanwhile, by hesitating almost precisely where we might have expected, buyers told us that the futures will go to exactly 1215.00 if and when they blow past 1163.25.  From there, all it would take to refresh the bullish impulse on the hourly chart would be a print at 1171.50, a tick above a peak made last Thursday on the way down.

SIU11 – September Silver (Last:42.140)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

We'll treat this selling with respect, since it should not have kicked in before the futures reached a middling Hidden Pivot resistance (unnoted here earlier) at 44.510.  The actual high fell 14 cents shy of that mark, and so the pullback should be regarded as especially dangerous if it racks up a second bearish impulse leg today on the hourly chart.  That would require a print below 41.455, and although it would be warning of more weakness to come, it could also create a buying opportunity at the as-yet-undetermined midpoint support of the corrective abcd.  Want to learn how to do Hidden Pivot Analysis yourself, and to kiss your guru good-bye? Click here for information about the upcoming webinar in October.

GCZ11 – December Gold (Last:1837.60)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

We'll continue to navigate each day with an eye on subtleties, since they'll never let us go far wrong.  For the moment, I would suggest using the 5-minute chart, scrunching the bars just a bit so that the 'visual noise' is transformed into shadowy areas that will distract us less.  Thus does a Hidden Pivot support at 1816.80 come into view -- but with the subtlest inference of a turnaround possibility on any upthrust exceeding 1849.60.  Bottom-fishing near the target is warranted, but it will call for camouflage.  Please note that the 1957.50 rally target proffered here yesterday was not affected by yesterday's decline, but we will nonetheless put it on the back burner for now.

Just a Bear Rally?

– Posted in: Commentary for the Week of March 8 Free

Now that was impressive! An earthquake, of all things, shakes the Big Apple yesterday as it hasn’t been shaken since 9/11, and Wall Street never even breaks stride. Early reports suggested that some denizens of the Bowery were fearful the city might be under attack again.  They may have breathed a sigh or relief, however, when it became clear that the tremor was “only” a magnitude 5.8 earthquake, not a suitcase nuke. Before the Virginia-centered quake hit shortly after 2 p.m., a strong rally was already in progress from the night before, propelled by who-knows-what.  The temblor had no discernible on the markets, but it rattled big cities up and down the Middle Atlantic coast.  Breaking news pushed Hurricane Irene temporarily off the front page even as the mounting storm, with sustained winds above 90 mph, threatened to wreak havoc on the East Coast this weekend. Traders were unfazed by it all, however, and by day’s end the buying spree had become a runaway freight train, sending the Dow up 322 points. The mania steepened in the final hour, sellers evidently having realized that resistance was futile.  At the same time, Gold and Silver were getting pummeled, as so often occurs when the stock market behaves as though all were right with the world.  December Gold came off its overnight high by $93, hitting a low of $1819 in the late afternoon, while September Silver was off a whopping $2.78, or a little more than six percent.   As the Great Recession tightens its grip, we look forward to a resumption shortly of the buying in bullion and the continuation of the stock market’s penitent decline. Even so, we are forced to acknowledge that there is nothing in the technical picture that would preclude a very strong bounce here – to new highs, even. We said as