Tuesday, January 15, 2013

With a strong thrust yesterday that exceeded a minor 'external' peak at 1682.40 recorded January 3 on the way down, the futures created on the hourly chart what camouflageurs will recognize as an excellent opportunity to get long. Leveraging the pattern shown would have triggered you into the trade at 1679.30. You should check out the 3-minute chart to see how easy and free of stress this trade could have been, even for beginners. (The relevant pattern, with two single-bar coordinates, is A= 1677.10 at 7:57 a.m. EST,  B=1681.00 at 8:09; and C=1679.30 at 8:18.) Since the 1682.80 midpoint resistance has already been exceeded by $1.90, a follow-through leg to the 1689.80 target is a decent bet. Notice that if the futures get there, it will refresh the bullish energy of the chart, possibly creating a new 'camo' entry opportunity for a breakaway ride above $1700.  The futures are currently relapsing as they nearly always do when the regular session begins, but even if the pattern yielding the 1689.80 target gets blown, the overall picture still looks encouraging. _______ UPDATE (10:54 p.m EST):  A day of gratuitous ups and downs had no bearing on my immediate outlook. Camouflageurs will be on their own, however, in seizing whatever opportunity may arise today, if any.

A bearish impulse leg on the daily chart that was followed by a downside breach of a midpoint support at 29.415 (see inset) has put the burden of proof on bulls. They could recover the high ground with an unbroken thrust exceeding peak #1, a true 'external' (31.535, from daily on January 2) ; and #2, an ersatz peak (at 32.600, daily chart, on December 18) will do for our purposes.  Otherwise, the bearish, 27.295 target will remain theoretically valid.

Caterpillar is correcting an impressive impulse leg and bids fair to hit par on the next run-up.  My hunch is that the spectacular gap created on the first trading day of the new year needs some backing and filling before the stock is ready to embark on a robust C-D leg. If the pattern shown, or a further evolution of it, trips an entry signal, be ready to jump on it via a chart of 15-minute degree or less. _____ UPDATE (11:01 p.m. EST):  The stock looks a little too strong at the moment to bless us with an easy camo trade.  That could imply entering at the point 'x' shown in the new chart, but it would have been too risky to have done so in the final hour yesterday. My hunch is that the entry trigger will be left in the dust by a gap-up opening Wednesday morning; or, if stocks are weak, rendered moot by a dip below the existing point C. Whatever happens, I'll leave it up to you to improvise an entry strategy on-the-fly. If you're interested, please don't hesitate to query me about this when I'm in the chat room. _____ UPDATE (January 22 at 12:51 a.m. EST): Friday's goosing put this runaway freight train on course for a run-up to 102.69 (daily chart, A=86.55 on 12/27 at 4 p.m. EST; B=95.67).  The midpoint sibling lies just above, at 98.13. Camouflageurs should use May 10's external peak at 97.39 to set up an entry trigger. Beware of a fleeting B-C pullback, since the rally looks strong enough to pull a hundred bulls with it.  _______ UPDATE (February 5, 12:58 a.m. EST):  Friday's gap-up high at 99.70 missed the target by $3, but because it remains viable you should stay alert to the possibility of

Is Crude poised for a breakout? Check out the excellent 'camo' opportunity visible at the right-hand edge of the February contract's daily chart. I noticed it after the 93.45 entry signal had been tripped yesterday, but the signal itself will remain actionable via camouflage on charts of lesser degree. A stall so far at the 94.24 midpoint resistance beckons caution.  However, the fact that the point B high did not exceed October 10's marquee high at 94.87 gives this bullish opportunity its allure.

We've been fixated on a presumably very short-able rally target at 1494.50 in the E-Mini S&Ps, but an alternative target has come belatedly into view that could hold an equally compelling opportunity. My trading bias in the meantime is bullish, but with the futures soon to enter their third week of tired upwardliness, there is little of daily interest to recommend.

This glue horse could use a dose of whatever it was that Lance Armstrong was taking.  Eventual movement to a 1494.50 rally target is not in doubt, only the timing of it.  DaBoyz quite evidently are waiting for just the right news item to short-squeeze the futures into a thrust capable of eating through supply in a way that ordinary, bullish buying never can. In the meantime, night owls should consider bottom-fishing at the 1456.50 target of the minor corrective pattern shown. Its 'p' sibling at 1461.75 has been exceeded to the downside by three ticks, probably enough to send this vehicle the full distance in search of tradable support.  Incidentally, an alternative rally target at 1481.75 has belatedly smacked me in the face (belatedly because it was technically 'know-able' as early as November 19: Daily chart, A=1313.00 on July 24; B= 1461.00 on September 14; etcetera.)  Keen as I've been to get short at 1494.50, we should monitor this vehicle closely in case the actual opportunity occurs at the lower target. ______ UPDATE (10:39 a.m. EST):  The bottom-fishing target drum-rolled in today's tout (see above) caught the exact low, which occurred at 8:30 a.m. EST. If you got long down there please let me know in the chat room so that I can establish tracking guidance for your further benefit. ______ UPDATE (10:59 a.m. EST): Several subscribers reported fills on or near the low, so here we go:  Take a partial profit on the position now, with the futures trading around 1462.  Then, use an impulse-leg stop-loss derived from the 5-minute chart. What that currently implies is that you should stop yourself out on any uncorrected downthrust exceeding 1458.25.  If you hold just a single contract, use the same stop-loss, but widen it and swing for the fences if

Wall Street Journal reviewer Walter Mossberg has finally come over from the Dark Side, acknowledging what PC world’s early adopters have known for months – i.e., that Microsoft’s latest operating system looks like a loser. While it’s hardly unusual for Rick’s Picks to put the knock on Microsoft, a company that couldn’t innovate its way out a Glad bag, it’s almost unheard of for Mossberg to do so. In the  past, he’s played softball with the Redmond behemoth’s products because, if you want to keep your job as a computer-product reviewer for a major newspaper, you don’t pick fights with the largest software company in the world. And yet, in a Personal Technology column published last week, writing with a boldness we’ve never before seen in the man, Mossberg said in effect that unless your computer is practically brand new, you’d have to be crazy to “upgrade” to Windows 8:  "To be sure,” Mossberg wrote, starting in low gear, “people upgrading newer PCs, whose makers anticipated Windows 8 or have software patches ready to accommodate it, will likely have a much better experience. I learned—too late—that neither of the computers I was upgrading was on the list of models for which their manufacturers provided such patches. This may be because, in both cases, aspects of their hardware weren't up to snuff for Windows 8's more demanding requirements.”  Oh, come on, Walter!  Up to snuff??  Don’t blame it on your equipment. Just come out and say it! Death’s Head Warning And boy, did he ever! Mossberg’s next sentence should be affixed to every Windows 8 installation disk, like an FDA death’s head to a pack of cigarettes: “The touch pad on my Lenovo ThinkPad X301 laptop can't be used to scroll in the new tabletlike Start Screen environment in Windows 8,