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Price action last week was as agitated as we've seen in a while, with bulls and bears locked in a seeming fight to the death. We'll side with the latter for now, but only for purposes of drawing a chart we can use to assess trend strength in either direction. If the 'C' high at 365.65 is taken out as the week begins, I'll likely redraw the graph to reflect a stronger bullish bias. For now, though, we can look for Friday's moderate weakness to continue. If it sends the Cubes down to p=353.93, you can bottom-fish there with a very tight stop-loss.  Call options might work if the upturn is sharp enough, but don't go out more than a week, and use options priced for 0.60 or less. _______ UPDATE (Oct 14, 11:15 p.m.): Today's short-squeeze spasm above the 'C' high of the bearish pattern has generated a rally target at 369.02 (15-min, a=353.15 on 10/6 at 10:35 a.m.). Let's see how the herd handles it on a Friday.

Friday's spirited bounce came from within a split hair of the 'discomfort zone' low I'd proffered in the chat room a day earlier, but bulls shouldn't get their hopes too high. Although I am open to the possibility that this short-squeeze rally will pick up tempo enough to set up a lunatic leap to new all-time highs, that's not what I expect. Notice the head-and-shoulders formation in the chart (inset). Although fans of this pattern could have asked for better symmetry on the right shoulder, the overall look of it is impressively bearish.  The effect is compounded by an 'island reversal' that effectively stranded a mountain of supply above the shoulder line. Another factor giving bears the edge is that the 382.78 top on September 7 occurred just three cents above a Hidden Pivot target I'd drum-rolled back in January.  All of the above argues for a bearish bias for trading the bigger charts.  Please note that the smaller ones have yet to produce a bullish impulse leg even on the lowly 15-minute chart, shown here. (The same is true of AAPL, our #1 bellwether and proxy for institutional mindset: Its ostensibly nasty short squeeze on Friday did not exceed a single prior peak even on the '15'.) _______ UPDATE (Oct 4, 5:05 p.m.): Here's a nice pattern that projects down to 341.87.  Let's see if bears can crack the midpoint support on Tuesday. _______ UPDATE (Oct 5, 5:23 p.m.):  QQQ went the wrong way, tripping a mildly appealing 'mechanical' short at the green line (356.41). We'll spectate this time rather than pray for ruin overnight. ______ UPDATE (Oct 6, 8:26 p.m.): The would-be short failed to touch the red line where it could have been covered, suggesting DaBoyz were bullishly in control from the get-go this morning. They will

The 398.69 rally target shown maxes out bullish targets that can be projected using the weekly chart. It would trigger a 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to p=357.35, stop 343.57; or, somewhat less risky, at the green line (336.67), stop 315.99.  My hunch is that the first trade, if it triggers, would likely visit pain on buyers without stopping them out. To reduce the entry risk, I'd suggest crafting a 'camouflage' set-up on the hourly chart or lower if and when the red line is touched.  The target cannot be considered a done deal because the initial push past p was tentative, and the elongated A-B impulse leg was weakened by a detour last spring. Even so, given that the Cubes are still a favorite vehicle for the lunatic fringe, we should always give the benefit of the doubt to the bull trend.  If it continues into outer space, here's a chart with a target at 478.87 that is congruent with another huge leg up in this ageless bull market. ______ UPDATE (Sep 26, 5:12 p.m.): The plunge through p=365.06 all but guarantees more downside to at least D=356.07.  Let's see how resilient this 'hidden support' is. Pivoteers can try bottom-fishing in any event with a tight rABC trigger. ______ UPDATE (Sep 30, 6:25 p.m.): Don't look for much of a bounce from 356.07 if it happens at all. I'll be looking to try a very tight rABC 'buy' from just above 356, but even if the trade makes money, I don't expect the low to hold.

Subscribers have reported doubling out of put positions initiated at or very near the recent, precisely predicted high, presumably leaving themselves with enough contracts to swing for the fences. Please let me know in the chat room where you stand, since that will allow me to fine-tune my guidance.  Regardless, the immediate downside target is the 370.30 Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart (inset).  Judging from the decisive penetration of the pattern's midpoint pivot at 374.60, sellers have enough steam to get it to D.  FYI, a pop up to x=376.75 in the meantime would trigger a theoretical 'mechanical' short, stop 379.00. _______ UPDATE (Sep 20, 1:04 p.m.): There is no avoiding a test of the 359.96 low recorded on Aug 19.  This will create a tradeable opportunity, so nudge me in the chat room when the time comes if you are interested.  In the meantime, your trading bias should be short. Here's the chart. ______ UPDATE (Sep 21, 10:08 p.m.): Short-covering bears hit the panic button well shy of the 359.96 low noted above, implying they were all but certain the Cubes would bounce from near there in a big way. Their certitude means a test of the low is likely, but even so, we should not get in the way of the bounce, which looks headed into a gap between 369 and 372. _____ UPDATE (Sep 23, 9:53 p.m.): Bear buying filled the gap, but without surpassing any prior peaks. We'll hang back and see what Friday brings.

I've been drum-rolling the 382.75 bull-market target for so long that I'm hardly surprised to see QQQ rolling down after making an actual high within a quark of it at 382.72. Nor will I be shocked if Friday's weakness turns into something truly hellish. From a prediction standpoint, the pattern stood to be a good and especially useful one because it is fairly gnarly, and therefore less visible to the herd; and because the droolers and algos who have finally caught on to the magic of ABCD patterns are unlikely to have used the idiosyncratic, one-off 'A' that is the Hidden Pivot Method's secret sauce.  For now, let's simply watch and enjoy the show, keeping our fingers crossed that we are witnessing the massive coronary that alone can return the stock market to reality and a chance for better health.  If you own put butterflies as advised, or naked puts from the top, cash out half as always if and when they double in price.

After head-butting a seemingly impregnable Hidden Pivot resistance at 368.70 for two weeks, the Cubes pushed slightly above it last week, signaling their unwillingness to be contained. The target offered a potential finale to a bullish ABCD pattern launched last Halloween, but in order to come up with a higher one, we'll need to go back an additional six months for the start of an even bigger pattern. It is shown in the inset and projects to 382.75, a number you can use to target call butterfly spreads with perhaps a month of time left on them.  Thereafter, we'll want to get short if and when 382.75 is achieved -- again using well-out-of-the-money (put-option) butterfly spreads. Alternatively, it will always be possible to short the underlying in a way that doesn't depend on its reaching the target. I will provide timely tactics for doing so if there is sufficient interest in the Trading Room. ______ UPDATE (Aug 30, 6:25 p.m.): The Cubes are within millimeters of the longstanding rally target at 382.75. (AAPL is close to its own major target; check out the chat room discussion, which includes detailed guidance for getting short.) To short QQQ speculatively, we'll try to leg into 340/345/350 put butterfly spreads -- first by bidding 0.18 for a dozen Oct 1 350/345 vertical put spreads, 1:1, good through Wednesday. Note: They will become easier to buy at that price as QQQ makes its way toward the target, but you can pay up to 0.20 if it feels close. ______ UPDATE (Sep 1, 7:33 p.m.): The short squeeze to a record-high 382.71 on the opening bar has left me as curious as you are about what will happen next. It'd certainly be nice to nail a major high within 0.03 points. We shall see. _______ UPDATE

I'd planned to remove QQQ from the list because of a lack of interest. However, due to last week's unexpected put-butterfly lollapalooza in the chat room, and because of the promise of possible excitement to come, I'll leave the Cubes on the home page for now. You should all have an ample supply of Sep 30 250/270/290 put butterflies purchased for 0.22 or less, and so I will track 16 of them at that price. For the present, do nothing further. QQQ has gotten with five-one-hundredths of a percentage point of the 368.70 rally target I first advertised here some time ago, and it is as promising a place to get short as we've seen in a long while. [Note: As of 7/26, the target has now been achieved with a new record high at 368.89.] I trust that the money you are risking to get short has come entirely come from profits tied to a bullish target whose reliability was never in doubt.  Even so, we shouldn't be shocked if a stock market gripped by fever goes even higher. My hunch is that any rally will not get very far -- just far enough to raise doubts in the minds of other traders, bearishly inclined, who are aware of this pattern and its target. Our $350 bet will at least make whatever happens entertaining to watch -- and not too costly if fever wins out. _______ UPDATE (Aug 5, 11:10 p.m. ET):  Addled with methamphetamine, the Cubes bored through a granite Hidden Pivot resistance on the opening bar and then spent the rest of the day frolicking just above it.  This is NOT how head fakes/false breakouts occur, so if you've had your fingers crossed that the wack-jobs who have been driving this hoax into outer space were close to

We're taking long odds on a major top here, attempting to buy Sep 30 250/270/290 put butterfly spreads.  The 0.22-0.25 price range I'd suggested became increasingly inadequate as the week wore on, since a moderate decline in QQQ pushed the spread's mid-price up to around 0.31. Continue to probe the market, being careful to avoid paying up.  However, you should also consider the somewhat riskier strategy I'd outlined at the same time: legging into the spreads, first by buying 290/270 put spreads 1:1.  In the Trading Room, I'd suggested bidding 0.62 initially with QQQ at 362.50, but adjusting by 0.03 deltas. This means raising your bid by a penny for each 33-cent decline in QQQ, or lowering the bid by one cent for every 33-cent rise from 362.50.  To update using the same 0.03 delta adjustment, start with a 0.74-0.75 bid and QQQ at 357.29. The second leg of the spread would entail selling 270/250 put spreads 1:1 if and when QQQ drops. Whatever we receive for them will effectively decrease the cost of the resulting butterfly dollar for dollar. If QQQ were to fall sharply after we've got the first leg on, we could conceivably get the price of the butterfly down to zero or lower, meaning no loss would be possible.  A detailed lesson on butterfly spreads is available free to all subscribers and can be accessed via your account dashboard. Butterfly spreading is the cheapest and least risky way to leverage distant strikes. In this instance, spreads that cost you $50 to $70 apiece have the potential to widen to as much as $2000 if QQQ is at 270 when the options expire in ten weeks.  Please report any fills or failed attempts in the chat room so that I can adjust the bid to suit changing

Friday's wild-eyed thrust looked well capable of propelling this MIRV to the 368.70 target shown. This is notwithstanding QQQ's trouble getting airborne after its initial push past the midpoint pivot at 333.09 back in March. Once it finally got its footing with a return to the green line, DaBoyz apparently decided there would be no more deciding until new, Olympian heights were achieved. The relevant pattern is too obvious to the droolers of the trading world to offer an opportune place for us to get short, although there is probably close to zero chance that a tradeable top will NOT occur close to the blue 'D' line. It's a matter of how long it takes for a decent pullback to occur, and my hunch is that it will take more time (and patience) than any of us is willing to devote to the task.  There is one more possibility we shouldn't overlook: Shorting via an rABC pattern, with 'c' pegged at around 359.80. That's the arithmetical middle of the void between p and p2, and therefore a good place to look for a downturn from within the 'discomfort zone' that has become the focus of our trades. The point 'a' high I prefer for anchoring  the pattern before 'c' occurs lies at 324.33, a peak recorded on March 2.  For newcomers, that implies the short would be triggered by a downturn of exactly 6.71 points from somewhere very near 359.80. Exactly how near?  That's a question that will be easier to answer when we've seen how this fusion reactor trades on Monday. ______ UPDATE (Jul 10): There's still no doubt about where this steroid-addled stallion is going. But check option prices going back six months if you need to be convinced that not a dime was made by anyone who