ESM10 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1168.50)

The decline of  the last two weeks is a less ferocious version of what we saw at the start of this year, so let’s not jump to conclusions about what might evolve, since we know how things turned out the first time.  Still, yesterday’s steep drop did generate a bearish impulse leg on the daily chart, and there will be no harm in treating it as though it is the resumption of the Mother of All Bear Markets. If so, the selling is off to a good start, having exceeded the worst-case target that could have been derived from the daily chart, 1168.00. The actual low was 1164.25, and that’s enough of an overshoot for us to presume that more selling awaits. If the weakness does continue — even for just another day or two — it will put the futures in a hole from which the stairstep resistance of prior highs and lows will challenge bulls’ resolve in ways in which it has not been challenged in quite some time. In the meantime, the futures will be best traded from the short side using the five-minute chart or less. Specifically, you should look for camouflage early on in reversals of minor rallies.