When Getting It Wrong Pays Off

EST

There are some potentially important rally targets in some popular vehicles we track. Although we try to avoid getting seduced by the prospect of catching the Mother of All Tops, laying out tightly stopped shorts at key Hidden Pivot resistance points will always be too great a temptation to pass up, especially since these trades have produced at least small profits perhaps 75% of the time. Being wrong needn’t be costly, as many Rick’s Picks subscribers have discovered, and it can sometimes produce gains if one’s timing is perfect.

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Farmer October 9, 2017, 7:25 pm

There is one other thing I never mentioned in my post of a few hours ago and I think its worth talking about.

Last Friday and today GDX has gone through a very significant distribution of shares which is a puzzle given golds bullish outlook. It was in fact the leading sell in the “Selling on Strength” indicator published by the WSJ.

http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html?mod=mdc_leader

Fridays selling amounted to 170 million while today’s was an additional 108 million dollars worth of shares. That is worrisome because it may be suggesting that if we do indeed get a market correction this week that mining stock will be falling even as gold rises.

This small bit of information may even be the tell that an actual correction is around the corner. After all, who would dump mining stock when gold looks so damned good given miners usually have so much more upside when gold rises?

Curious isn’t it.

Farmer October 9, 2017, 4:11 pm

Many thanks Rick. I was wondering where that went. Wasn’t sure I hit the send button after posting. Old age I suppose…

My bearishness on the NASDAQ incidentally is related to what I see as a very positive set up on gold that I believe will retrace back near the recent September high where a double-top should be established.

The gold pattern is in a pretty bullish set up so I’m long. But the only way it can get there is if Yen rises too and thus by default the Nikkei declines.

I rationalize that if Japanese markets will stall here it means that US markets are probably also topping (at least short term) and indeed I don’t anticipate much of a correction this month. Just enough to see gold retest its highs and possibly print a higher peak.

These things are all connected in my mind and checking the various technicals seems to confirm the idea but I will admit I might be getting into a linear thinking trap so my commitment is still a little reserved.

Rick Ackerman October 9, 2017, 11:24 am

(Re-posted by Rick for “Farmer”)

Not sure what you see in copper, Rick. It is set up for a very significant decline after having fallen almost 30 cents in September. By my reckoning that was merely the first leg down and the next is now preparing for a decline all the way back to support at 2.10 (rough estimate). The chart is not bullish at all. And why would it be other than on the fundamentals of billions of dollars of hurricane damaged homes. Although that argument is pretty convincing and implies a bullish outcome for copper I think the technnicals paint a different picture. You see copper turned up just as the dollar turned down in November/ December of 2016. And now, with the advent of a resumption in the long-dollar bull trade we should anticipate that coppers fall could be considerable as it moves inverse to dollars. We might even be able to use coppers coming fall to judge just how high the dollar will move although I won’t attempt that today. Anyway, this is a good bet for a short play in my opinion as price is now backtesting the recent decline (daily chart) and finding prior support has turned to resistance.

Monthly copper — This is not a bullish look for the copper bulls in the room and suggests to me that a recession is inevitable.

http://bit.ly/2y4XjX3



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