Silver looks like a slightly better bet than gold to achieve the 'D' rally target of the modest 'reverse' pattern shown. It has signaled one 'mechanical' winner on the way to 23.85, but we are more interested at this point in how strongly the Hidden Pivot resists the uptrend. It has been tortuous and does not look powerful enough to blow through the resistance. Still, there is no reason to think this is impossible or even unlikely, so let's simply monitor the move closely and exploit it as we always do whenever the odds tilt in our favor. _______ UPDATE (Jan 3, 10:14 p.m. EST): Like February Gold, March Silver would trigger a 'mechanical' buy if it falls to the green line. The 21.40 stop-loss would make the trade equally risky, with $3,000 theoretical at stake on entry. This one, too, is therefore for experts who can pare that down to perhaps $300 per contract. Interested? Nudge me if I'm in the chat room at post time. _______ UPDATE (Jan 6, 8:12 p.m.): Time to remove Silver from the front page? I will do so shortly unless there's a popular uprising to save it.
I am updating DXY not because it has done anything interesting since November, but just to have the U.S. dollar on my 'new' front page. It has been locked in a consolidation pattern since then, although the year ended with an imminent but not necessarily serious breakdown. If the correction continues, it will allow me to switch to a more regular pattern instead of the fiercely gnarly one that has informed us the last month or so. Regardless, we can continue to use D=98.00 as a minimum upside objective for the bull cycle begun in May. It is part of a much larger, bull market that started in 2014. _______ UPDATE (Jan 27, 9:04 p.m. ET): The 98.00 target is in-the-bag, so let's shift our sights upward to the 102.83 D target of this reverse pattern. You can use p2=99.43 as a minimum upside objective for the near term. ______ UPDATE (Feb 3, 9:47 p.m.): The dollar has gone into a fake death dive after rallying to within easy distance of the 98.00 target drum-rolled above. We'll move to the sidelines for now, the better to sleep through the buck's indeterminate funk.
AAPL's megabucks sponsors had a bumpy ride last week, although you couldn't tell it from the weekly chart. It shows the stock in a placid, self-assured ascent toward the 187.93 bull-market target flagged here last week. As the week wore on, the stock was deftly used by DaBoyz in tag-team fashion to power the broad averages higher. When AAPL was getting hit, most stocks were on the rise, and vice versa. This is a very efficient way to keep the bull-market con alive, given that Apple's nearly $3 trillion capitalization can counterbalance money flows from a score of lesser, albeit highly visible, stocks. From a technical standpoint, we should regard a pullback to p=145.52 (stop 131.38) as an excellent 'mechanical' buying opportunity, although so fetching a bargain seems unlikely. There's a lesser rally target at 172.40 that should produce a discernible pause or pullback. We won't take it too seriously, though because the weekly-chart pattern that produced it is too obvious: A=123.13 on 6/4.
The felicitously gnarly pattern that I introduced here Wednesday night worked like a dream, signaling a huge 'mechanical' winner on the short side and keeping us properly skeptical for the duration of a vicious, two-day short squeeze. The clock ran out on us before the chiseled-in-stone downside target at 4478.75 could be achieved, however. It remains theoretically viable, even if not as enticing for bottom-fishing as it would have been on Friday at mid-session.
Gold has shown no net gain or loss in a year-and-a-half and will likely remain trapped in a nervous range until something very significant changes in the big economic/financial picture. The pattern shown, with a 1629.00 downside target given here earlier, has provided some excellent entry points for 'mechanical' and 'reverse' trades; but that's all gold is good for at the moment: just a trade. We can reconsider the dour outlook if the futures pop above mid-November's 1882 high or penetrates the downside target at 1629. The latter seems most unlikely, but the Hidden Pivot levels by themselves will remain useful in any event.
The 22.01 downside target I flagged at the beginning of the week worked beautifully, enabling bottom-fishing less than two cents off the intraday (and weeky) low. It occurred on Friday at 22.03 and gave way to a strong bounce that could have produced a quick profit of as much as $10,000 on four contracts. No one reported doing the trade, however, so I provided no further guidance. The extent of the bounce is unpredictable at this time, but because it has come from a Hidden Pivot target that took more than three months to reach, we might expect it to continue untroubled for at least another 4-7 days if not significantly longer.
I've used a composite chart for the now-defunct December contract to project a rally target at 166^27. Its equivalent, basis the March, would be around 165^10. I've also used a 'reverse ABC' pattern for this projection because it yields a lower target than one where 'A' is lower than 'C'. My reason for being cautious is that the impulse leg of the pattern did not exceed any distinctive prior peaks. It is properly impulsive and therefore bullish, but not impressively powerful. Although my long-term outlook is bullish, I'll be tempted to try shorting for a scalp near 165^10. Stay tuned to the chat room if you care.
The pattern shown is nutty, but not so nutty that it won't work for getting long 'mechanically' if you choose, or even getting short at D=98.00. I've used it because the more obvious pattern occupying the last four weeks is a little too obvious to be 'our little secret'. A run-up to 98 is going to create more problems for a bull market that is already years overdue for a devastating correction. It will make overseas profits earned by U.S. multinationals shrink, but it will also tighten the deflationary noose around everyone who owes dollars. This will come as a rude surprise, and ultimately a profound shock, to those who make financial decisions based on what they learn from CNBC, CNN, The Economist, Bloomberg, and the New York POS Times. Rick's Picks readers might not be spared from the ravages of the coming Second Great Depression, but at least they will have seen it coming.
Mr. Market blew a great opportunity on Friday to scare the hell out of everyone, concluding the session with a mild short-squeeze rather than the devastating rout that Wall Street's years-long wilding spree so urgently needs. The continuing ascent of Apple shares as always remains key to the global illusion of prosperity and the surreal expectations of portfolio managers; and that is why, as last week’s commentary pointed out, the stock is not about to go quietly into the night. It struggled nonetheless last week to make headway toward a 187.93 target after peaking on Wednesday at a record-high 170.20. AAPL subsequently sold off hard for all of about ten hours, then limped to the finish line to end the week in a way that could have satisfied neither bulls nor bears. The rally target, a very major one, remains viable, but we’ll need to monitor AAPL's progress toward it closely, since fears of Omicron, the latest supposed Covid variant, are threatening to strangle the global consumer economy yet again. When the week ended, Fauci and his benighted lackeys in the news media seemed eager, if not to say desperate, for someone to die, or at least be hospitalized for a few days, lest an opportunity be missed to roll out another booster shot and to stoke the public's antipathy toward the unvaccinated to new extremes. Alas, press releases from health officials in South Africa, Omicron’s apparent ground zero, only served to mitigate concerns that the variant might be the devastating killer that so many politicians and bureaucrats must be hoping for. Stocks Are Topping Meanwhile, with Western Civilization in mid-stage collapse, the stock market continues to feel like it’s in a sympathetic topping process. However, it takes a little imagination to concoct a scenario in which the practically unlimited
Mr. Market blew a great chance to scare the hell out of everyone on Friday, ending the session with a mild short-squeeze rather than the rout that stocks so desperately need. AAPL as always remains key to the global illusion of prosperity and the lofty aspirations of pension fund managers, and that is why, as last week’s commentary suggested, it is not about to go quietly into the night. The stock struggled nonetheless last week to make headway toward a 187.93 target after peaking on Wednesday at a record-high 170.20. It subsequently sold off hard for all of about ten hours, then muddled to the finish line in a way that could have satisfied neither bull nor bear. The rally target, a very major one, remains viable, but we’ll need to monitor the stock closely in case omicron fears threaten to kayo the consumer economy yet again. When the week ended, Fauci and his lackeys in the news media seemed eager, if not to say desperate, for someone to die, or at least be hospitalized for a few days, lest an opportunity be missed to roll out the booster-shot-of-the-month. Alas, press releases from South Africa, omicron’s ground zero, only served to mitigate fears that the latest Covid variant, if it is one, could be the devastating killer that so many politicians and bureaucrats are hoping for. For its part, the stock market continues to feel like it’s in a topping process. However, it takes a little imagination to concoct a scenario in which the practically unlimited quantities of ginned-up money that have powered the bull market could dry up. Consider that companies with tens of billions of real dollars of surplus cash go out and borrow funny money because, apparently, they want to save the good stuff for…exactly what? Certainly
