Rick Ackerman

December Gold remains on track for a move to at least 1916.90, the 'reverse' D rally target shown in the inset. Two weeks of tedium have at lest partially consolidated the very robust impulse leg begun on November 3 from 1758. However, we shouldn't rule out the possibility of a $30-$50 swoon to alleviate gold's constipation before it heads up to 1916.90. The implied $2000 entry risk of bullishly trading the resulting pattern means we'll need to set it up on charts of lesser degree. You should stay tuned to the chat room, but also keep your email 'Notifications' switched on if you want to keep closely apprised. ______ UPDATE (Nov 22, 9:52 p.m.): The December contract fell almost $50, validating my warning, but technically it won't become a swoon until we've see a strong bounce that recoups the loss. In the meantime, a further fall to p=1797.40 would trip a 'mechanical' buy, and so would a hit at x=1737.70. Nudge me in the chat room if you would like me to vet your 'camouflage' entry set-up. _______ UPDATE (Nov 23, 5:48 p.m.): We're in no hurry to get long nor to play hero as gold's predatory masters simulate scary weakness. I still think we'll have our chance down around 1737.70.

The rally begun on September 29 from 21.41 is bound for a minimum 26.48, a Hidden Pivot resistance that is shown in the inset. I've used a 'reverse' pattern to calculate the target, and it is comely enough to be considered reliable for all purposes, including nailing a short-able top and keeping us confidently bullish in the meantime. Most immediately, we could use a pullback to p=23.94 to get long 'mechanically', stop 23.09. If this opportunity should arise and you are interested, nudge me in the chat room and I may be able to provide a set-up that would drastically reduce the implied entry risk of around $4000 per contract. _____ UPDATE (Nov 23, 6:04 p.m. ET): The trade triggered off our 'workhorse pattern', but because no one mentioned it I'll track this one on paper. The first partial profit should be taken at p2=25.10, o-c-o with a stop-loss on the entire position at 23.09.

Treasury Bonds are more than holding their own, considering the Fed is in the throes of the biggest monetary blowout in U.S. history. Last week's rally came from just a few ticks below a 'mechanical' bid I'd advised near the green line (x=159^30).  The 'mechanical' trigger implies that the futures are bound for a minimum p=162^26, but we'll wait and see how buyers handle this 'hidden' resistance before we assume significantly higher prices are likely. This week's commentary notes that a ratcheting down of interest rates to 1.70 or even 1.54 could occur if T-Bond futures are in fact just warming up. _____ UPDATE (Nov 22, 10:04 p.m.): There's no getting around the worrisome fact that it would take just a small decline from here to generate a nasty impulse leg on the daily chart.  A print at 159^14 would do it, exceeding one 'internal' and two 'external' lows. Regardless, a very tight 'reverse ABC' pattern can be used to try bottom-fishing before, or just after, the lows have been breached. _______ UPDATE (Nov 23, 6:15 p.m.): The trade showed a small profit of $240-$450 before it was stopped out with the creation of a menacing impulse leg on the daily chart. A further drop into the no man's land above the October low at 157^03 is coming next.

AAPL's steep run-up last week slightly exceeded the 160.48 target we'd been using since the stock was trading around 146. The 54-cent overshoot amounted to just three-tenths of a percentage point, but that's sufficient in this case to put p2=163.87 in play as a minimum upside target. Just to be sure, we'll stipulate that the stock close for a second consecutive day above 160.48. An easy penetration of p2 would imply still more upside to D=172.40. Mechanical levels will be in play for trade set-ups if the stock moves higher, although odds of a pullback sufficient to trigger a trade are not favorable. That implies we may need to zoom down to the 5-  or 15-minute chart to get it done. _______ UPDATE (Nov 22, 10:25 a.m.): With this morning's powerful, wholly fabricated short-squeeze, AAPL has effortlessly and with no actual work added yet more hundreds of billions of dollars to the global store of inflation-based 'wealth'.  The stock is headed to 172.40 now, a Hidden Pivot with the potential to challenge a bull market that has become a runaway hoax. _______ UPDATE (Nov 22, 10:07 p.m.): A subscribers asked in the chat room whether today's vicious, 100% rigged reversal has negated the 172.40 target. My response:  Only a dip beneath C=138.27 would invalidate the target. Judging from the way the uptrend spiked through both p and p2, I am not even slightly spooked by today's bull trap. The stock will have to build a new base, but I am surely not writing off the 172.40 target. This matters, because, as AAPL goes, so goes the stock market and planet earth, economically speaking.

The pattern shown is gnarly, but Friday's pause precisely at its midpoint Hidden Pivot implies we're on the right track. The entire week was spent head-butting the 95.89 target of a smaller pattern, but the close above it suggests higher prices lie in store. This conclusion would be validated if DXY can close above p=96.09 for two consecutive weeks, or trade 65 or more cents above it intraday. At some point the dollar's universally unexpected strength is going to start hurting U.S.-based multinationals, but not before the chimps decide where they're going to rotate all of the OPM next.

Did you notice last week's tone change? The whole, eternally benighted world of pundits, economists, Bloomberg news producers, forecasters et al. has been disbelieving the bond rally as the Fed's ultimately unredeemable portfolio of Treasury debt has grown from merely massive to intergalactic in size. Now the talking heads are having to change their tune in order to catch up with charts that have been no worse than neutral on T-Bonds for months. So what "story" are they telling themselves to explain what they were unwilling to see back in January? Simply that we are witnessing a global "flight to safety" as Covid threatens to tank the economies of Europe and China yet again. Of course, nothing says "safety" like the whole world piling onto the shoddy, brittle edifice of U.S. debt. Trust your instincts: This trend cannot end well. In the meantime, the technical outlook calls for at least somewhat higher T-Bond prices and correspondingly lower yields. On the long bond, that would imply a descent to 1.70% from a current 1.91%. If that level is breached we could see 1.54%. At some point, the lower rates accompanying a bear market in stocks will be seen as reflecting not a flight to safety, but as a manifestation of the catastrophic deflation that has been bearing down on the financial planet, steadily gathering size and strength since the S&L crisis of the early 1990s. Dollar Short Squeeze = Deflation While economists have kept busy trying not to acknowledge that T-Bonds are moving in the wrong direction, a rising dollar has equally confounded them, as well as investors who bet on inflation. Although lower yields are ostensibly benign, albeit faintly symptomatic of the coming deflationary bust, a strong dollar is capable of wrecking the global financial system overnight. I've written here

Updates for this vehicle were starting to thicken with interesting but minor targets, so here's a fresh tout that features the most compelling of them, 4760.00. You can still attempt shorting at 4724.25, which looks appealing for a short-term payoff, but the Hidden Pivot at 4760.00 looks like a more likely place for a major top to occur. With nearly 30 points of upside to the lower number, your short-term bias should be bullish, with the goal of building a profit cushion to try something bolder when the prospective top is reached.

The futures were looking like a fabulous short on Friday afternoon -- until they weren't. Around mid-session, the December contract topped a single tick above a 4678.25 target I'd flagged during an impromptu session earlier in the day. The subsequent pullback could have been worth as much as $800 per contract, but the opportunity proved short-lived when short-covering drove this wack-job to an intraday high at 4685.00. That brought the pattern shown, with a 4723.75 target, into sharp relief. For now, use the p2 'secondary pivot' at 4699.13 as a minimum upside objective for the near term. _______ UPDATE (Nov 15, 6:37 p..m. ET): Sellers generated a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart after the futures failed to achieve the 4699 rally objective flagged above. Now, expect more weakness to at least p=4666.75, a Hidden Pivot with little value for bottom-fishing because it coincides with the intraday low. Its decisive breach would portend more weakness to at least p2=4659.00 or to d=4651.50 if any lower. Here's the chart. ______ UPDATE ( 9:35 p.m.): Short covering has negated the point 'C' high of my bearish pattern, causing me to lose interest entirely in whatever this headless chicken does over the next 12 hours. _______ UPDATE (Nov 16, 4:36 p.m.): Shorting the 4724.25 target of this pattern looks moderately promising. A 'camo' set-up is recommended, but you can use a limit offer and a 1.25-point stop loss if you want to play fast and loose.

Bulls remain on track to achieve the 1916.90 target flagged here earlier. It would take a little more more oomph, however, to push past 'Annapurna' at 1922.00 in order to generate a robust impulse leg on the daily chart. A further surge into the void above that peak would make December Gold a tempting short from the 'discomfort zone', if only for  scalp-trade.  Alternatively, a surprise plunge would trigger a 'mechanical' buy at p=1797.40, stop 1757.50. That's $16,000 of entry risk on four contracts, so check the chat room for 'camo' alternatives before you leap. ______ UPDATE (Nov 16, 5:11 p.m. ET): Today's stupid, and presumably gratuitous, plunge tripped a 'mechanical' buy signal at x=1855.20, stop 1843.20.  Mechanical trades work best when we are attempting to exploit pointlessly violent swings, so this set-up should offer a pretty good test of the theory. _______ UPDATE (Nov 17, 8:55 a.m.): A pretty good test, indeed. The futures surged to p=1867.10 overnight, producing a textbook profit-taking opportunity that would have netted a nearly $4800 gain for anyone who held onto four contracts acquired at X=1855.20 as advised.