Bulls remain on track to achieve the 1916.90 target flagged here earlier. It would take a little more more oomph, however, to push past 'Annapurna' at 1922.00 in order to generate a robust impulse leg on the daily chart. A further surge into the void above that peak would make December Gold a tempting short from the 'discomfort zone', if only for scalp-trade. Alternatively, a surprise plunge would trigger a 'mechanical' buy at p=1797.40, stop 1757.50. That's $16,000 of entry risk on four contracts, so check the chat room for 'camo' alternatives before you leap. ______ UPDATE (Nov 16, 5:11 p.m. ET): Today's stupid, and presumably gratuitous, plunge tripped a 'mechanical' buy signal at x=1855.20, stop 1843.20. Mechanical trades work best when we are attempting to exploit pointlessly violent swings, so this set-up should offer a pretty good test of the theory. _______ UPDATE (Nov 17, 8:55 a.m.): A pretty good test, indeed. The futures surged to p=1867.10 overnight, producing a textbook profit-taking opportunity that would have netted a nearly $4800 gain for anyone who held onto four contracts acquired at X=1855.20 as advised.
December Silver's climb has been too strong to afford us a 'mechanical' buying opportunity on the daily chart, although there have been less risky plays possible in smaller time frames. In any event, it looks like a very good bet to achieve the 26.48 target shown. That would refresh the bullish impulsiveness of the daily chart, clearing the way for a shot at May's key high at 28.92. A pullback to p=23.95 would trip a 'mechanical' buy, stop 23.10. That's $4200 of entry risk per contract, so the trade should be attempted only if you are familiar with 'camouflage' set-ups or have a method of your own to drastically limit risk. _______ UPDATE (Nov 16, 5:15 p.m. ET): December Silver's nitwit dive tripped a 'mechanical' buy identical to the one in gold (see my tout) at x=24.89, stop 24.59. Let's paper-trade this one together unless you've got 'camo' chops. _______ UPDATE (Nov 17, 1:22 p.m.): The paper trade crushed it, producing an overnight gain of as much as $7400 on four contracts.
The chart is bullish, but not very. A strong rally from the 157^03 low recorded on October 22 looks spent without having taken out any old highs. This suggests the pullback begun last week will need to correct for perhaps another 4-7 days before the futures can attempt a new launch. If the selloff comes down to the green line (x=159^30), it would trigger a mildly appealing 'mechanical' buy, stop 157^03. The implied entry risk on four contracts would exceed $10,000, so check the Trading Room for guidance before you attempt this. _______ UPDATE (Nov 15, 6:52 p.m. ET): In a chat room post this morning, I ratcheted up my enthusiasm for the trade suggested above. I'd wait till the futures touch the green line (159^30) before fashioning a 'camo' entry trigger, but here's an example with just $100 of theoretical entry risk per contract that triggered and is profitable at the moment. The purpose of these camo trades is not to make a pile of money, but to take advantage of bigger-picture opportunities with initial risk reduced to a practical minimum. ______UPDATE (Nov 16, 5:20 p.m.): The futures have tripped two profitable 'camo' trades off a big-picture 'mechanical' X at 159^30 that would be stopped at 157^02. Neither went the distance, but the goal is to hold 25% of the original 'camo' position for a swing at the fences. I will vet similar trades if there's interest in the chat room. Our expectation is to make at least a little money even if the bigger trade doesn't work out.
The bounce on Thursday interrupted a punitive downtrend, triggering a 'mechanical' short at x=64,166 in the process. Bertie has only given one false 'mechanical' signal since I began tracking it several years ago, but it was a buy signal. I've mostly tuned out minor 'sells,' since it has been obvious all along that bitcoin was headed much higher. That is still the case, and I am sticking with the 89,780 bull-market target given here previously. But I am going to give the bearish chart shown the benefit of the doubt for now. If the 'mechanical' signal is correct Bertie should fall to at least p=62,729, but possibly to p2=61,291. I doubt the damage would be much worse than that, but if a plunge demolishes p, we'd have to take the possibility of d=59,853 being reached more seriously. _______ UPDATE (Nov 15, 7:10 p.m. ET): I've raised 'C' of the still-bearish pattern to the intraday high at 66,344. It suggests that a cautious bid at 63,111 could be used for bottom-fishing, but don't risk more than relative pocket change. A decisive breach of this secondary Hidden Pivot would portend more slippage to at least p2=61,494. _______ UPDATE (Nov 16, 5:41 p.m.): For a very rare change Bertie actually exceeded a 'd' correction target. This development warrants our attention, but it is hardly the death knell for this lunatic-powered vehicle. If all remains (relatively) well, it should be easy to make money on the long side with 'mechanical' set-ups over the next couple of weeks. _______ UPDATE (Nov 18, 8:58 p.m.): The correction would need to hit 55,652 to equal the one in September. This reversal pattern implies Bertie can be bottom-fished with a tight 'camo' set-up.
AAPL has looked pretty punk for the last couple of weeks, but I am proffering a bullish chart nonetheless because bears couldn't drive the stock down to a correction target at 145.95 last week. (It remains theoretically valid.) The stock in fact reversed almost precisely from the p2 secondary pivot of the pattern, which often foretells strong moves in the opposite direction. We should hold the oohs and ahhs, however, until such time as buyers show their stuff at p=153.40 (corrected). This midpoint pivot can be used as a minimum upside projection for now, subject to revision if the stock should dive below C=146.41. _______ UPDATE (Nov 17, 4:19 p.m. EST): This morning's adroitly engineered short-squeeze did what mere bullish buying could never have accomplished, pushing AAPL decisively above p=153.40 and an important prior peak. Factor in the subsequent close above the pivot, and it all but guarantees that D=160.38 will be reached. ______ UPDATE (Nov 18, 9:07 p.m.): The guarantee of a move to 160.38 (see above) was all but fulfilled today when the crime syndicate that works AAPL goosed it to 158.67, courtesy of yet more short-covering.
John Doerr, the venture capital zillionaire, thinks America should go all-in on measures to control the weather. Although Doerr fears it may be too late to save Earth and its inhabitants from the ravages of global warming, he says a massive investment program would still be better than doing nothing. His role model is FDR, who put America on war footing with astounding speed after the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. The tycoon and those he hobnobs with have so much money that they could be forgiven for being unaware that America is broke. Sure, there's plenty of 'wealth' tied up in stocks, bonds and real estate. But valuations are so pumped with hot air that we might as well write off three-quarters of it, since it will vanish anyway in the next bear market. Plunging share prices will bring many painful epiphanies, including the realization that every dime of the nearly $30 trillion owed by the U.S. Government-- which is to say, owed by taxpayers -- will have to be repaid: if not by borrowers, then by lenders. That is the inexorable logic of deflation, and when it comes we will be too busy dealing with the implosion of Social Security, Medicare and Baby Boomer retirement plans to be gung-ho about taming the weather, were this even possible. Democrats to the Rescue! By then, Americans won't feel much like spending tens of trillions of dollars for coal-plant scrubbers, thorium reactors, Wyoming-sized solar arrays and recapturing methane at wellheads. Galloping to the rescue, Democrats will propose a new tax on gasoline to jump-start 'Build Back Weather'. But the sums required just to get to the first stage of this guaranteed boondoggle would dwarf whatever could be raised with a surcharge of even $10 a gallon, not that anyone would still be
Our focus lately has been on ‘reverse ABC’ trades, but this time we revisited some old-fashioned ‘mechanical’ set-ups, some of them with ‘camouflage’ added for protection. The session served as a reminder that it doesn’t take sophisticated set-ups to make consistent money. Conditions were ideal, because stocks were in a rare downtrend strong enough to favor ‘mechanical’ plays.
Friday's pop through a key midpoint Hidden Pivot at 162^26 was the most bullish sign we've seen in this vehicle in a long while. The close slightly above the pivot added further encouragement, but another on Monday would offer more conclusive evidence that the move is for real. Use p2=165^20 as a minimum upside objective if that happens, but no trades are suggested for now. A rally to p2 would equate to a fall in long-term rates to 1.70 from a current 1.88%. ______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 10:34 pm.): If the pullback comes down to the green line (x=159^30), it would trigger a 'mechanical' buy with a stop at 157^02. Theoretical entry risk would be $12,620 on four contracts, so you will need to 'camo' your way aboard to do the trade. Ask in the chat room if interested.
The December contract will remain a bull trade at least until the 4760.00 target is reached, probably by no later than Wednesday. Judged on the basis of the pattern shown, and on the unsustainable trajectory of the rally leg begun three weeks ago, the Hidden Pivot target would seem to be an ideal spot to produce a major top. It will be short-able in any case, but we shouldn't get emotionally invested in the notion that we've caught THE top. It will suffice to profit from the expected pullback, and to leave ourselves a small short position for a swing at the fences. Until then, the best way to get aboard with risk drastically minimized is to use 'mechanical' set-ups on the hourly chart or less. Stay close to the chat room and keep 'Notifications' turned on in your account dashboard if you want to be closely apprised. ______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 1:09 a.m.): I posted this chart in the chat room about four hours ago in response to a subscriber's trading query. The pattern and my comments remain viable and were as follows: "Your pattern is fine, but the optimal entry point was at p=4667. 50 when it was first hit at 11:15 a.m. The reversal occurred exactly at the midpoint pivot, and any type of camouflage set-up would have worked to get you long with very little risk. p2=4659.00 is the next place you could attempt to bottom-fish. But p has been sufficiently battered to suggest ES wants to fall to 4650.50. The precise upturn from p implies that there will be an equally precise reversal at D." I note further that ES has since followed one of our tongue-in-cheek rules -- i.e., that all trends reverse at p2 in all time frames, all the time and in
A two-day thrust blew past the 1805.70 midpoint pivot (see inset) with such ease that more upside to the 1852.9o target would seem to be all but assured. This is gold, however, and we've become used to disappointment, if not inured to it, so let's not count our chickens quite yet. A pullback to the green line (1782.10) on Monday or Tuesday, however unlikely, should be bought 'mechanically', albeit on a chart of much smaller degree than the one shown. If buyers handle D=1852.90 with unwonted brio after having reached it straightaway, that would be the most bullish sign we've had in this vehicle in a very long while. _____ UPDATE (Nov 10, 10:56 p.m.): A fist-pump through 1852.90 kept bulls on the offensive, but there are some daunting hurdles just ahead. Use the 1916.90 target shown in this chart as a minimum upside target for now, but let's hold the hubris until buyers hoist this tonnage above 'Annapurna'.
