Rick Ackerman

Mr. Market blew a great chance to scare the hell out of everyone on Friday, ending the session with a mild short-squeeze rather than the rout that stocks so desperately need. AAPL as always remains key to the global illusion of prosperity and the lofty aspirations of pension fund managers, and that is why, as last week’s commentary suggested, it is not about to go quietly into the night. The stock struggled nonetheless last week to make headway toward a 187.93 target after peaking on Wednesday at a record-high 170.20. It subsequently sold off hard for all of about ten hours, then muddled to the finish line in a way that could have satisfied neither bull nor bear. The rally target, a very major one, remains viable, but we’ll need to monitor the stock closely in case omicron fears threaten to kayo the consumer economy yet again. When the week ended, Fauci and his lackeys in the news media seemed eager, if not to say desperate, for someone to die, or at least be hospitalized for a few days, lest an opportunity be missed to roll out the booster-shot-of-the-month. Alas, press releases from South Africa, omicron’s ground zero, only served to mitigate fears that the latest Covid variant, if it is one, could be the devastating killer that so many politicians and bureaucrats are hoping for. For its part, the stock market continues to feel like it’s in a topping process. However, it takes a little imagination to concoct a scenario in which the practically unlimited quantities of ginned-up money that have powered the bull market could dry up. Consider that companies with tens of billions of real dollars of surplus cash go out and borrow funny money because, apparently, they want to save the good stuff for…exactly what? Certainly

The pattern shown, with a 49,360 downside target that looks very likely to be reached, is gnarly enough that we won't be competing with the world if we use it to trade. That would imply bottom-fishing at 49,360 with a tight stop-loss or a frugal 'camo' set-up; or, getting short on rally to x=57,377.  Other trades going in either direction are possible if you zoom in on the last dozen or so bars, which manifest not one, but two tidy impulse legs. The 89,780 bull-market target is unchanged although of little concern at the moment. ______ UPDATE (Dec 5, 11:02 a.m.): Bertie is getting thwomped Sunday morning after opening on a gap down to a so-far low of 48,000. The pattern shown in the chart has room for one more target at 46,945, so let's see  how it goes. An easy breach of that number would not be an encouraging sign.

The institutional apes are in this stock up to their eyeballs -- with YOUR hard-earned savings! -- so don't expect it to go quietly into the night. In fact, AAPL would become a fetching 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to p=155.34, stop 149.65, and even moreso at x=146.80. That's no guarantee it will hit D=172.40 the next time its handlers goose it knowingly, but it does imply that if a bear market has commenced, it's not likely to provide an easy path to riches for permabears. That's not about to happen as long as AAPL, the most institutionally over-owned stock ever, has the worshipful support of Big Money. ________ UPDATE (Nov 29, 6:45 p.m. ET): Friday's low got within 46  cents of the red line, close enough to set up the 'fetching' mechanical trade I'd suggested above. I won't track it,  however, unless I hear from at least two subscribers who got aboard. Don't wait for me if you're in, though, since the so-far $500 gain per round lot warrants partial profit-taking. _______ UPDATE (Nov 30,6:02 p.m.): On Wall Street, nothing succeeds like excess, and it was force-fed into AAPL today with the efficiency of a hydraulic piston.  To underscore the point that they are completely in charge even when the broad averages are plummeting, DaBoyz levitated the world's biggest-cap stock by more than 3%, closing it on the high of the day.  Shorts left bruised and bleeding supplied yet more buoyancy after the close, pushing the stock still higher into effectively zero supply. It's a quite clever trick, preventing a bear market from happening merely by targeting a single stock. That's how the game is played, and although it will ultimately prove to be a losing strategy, we shouldn't underestimate how long the Street's criminal masterminds can sustain the

Elsewhere on the page, I've compared Friday's dramatic plunge to Japan's sneak attack on Pearl Harbor. Thanksgiving Friday was supposed to be a quiet day on Wall Street, but it looked more like the possible start of the bear market we've long expected. The selloff generated a powerful impulse leg on the daily chart, although it did no damage whatsoever to the weekly. We'll keep that in mind lest permabear hubris dull our judgment in the weeks ahead. It would not be unusual for a major trend change to occur after the trend has fallen shy of an important Hidden Pivot target.  The current trend failure occurred at 4740, a not insignificant 20 points below a 4760 target we'd culled from a pattern tracing back to 2009. There needn't be any guesswork, however; we'll know what's on Mr. Market's mind by paying close attention to corrective patterns on the hourly chart. If they start exceeding their D targets routinely, that would add to the evidence that a major bear has commenced. The same goes for retracement rallies that fail to reach their 'd' targets, particularly if they sputter out at the p 'midpoint' resistance.  On the hourly chart, here's a good place to start, since it shows Friday's close to have occurred bearishly beneath p=4583. ______ UPDATE (Nov 30, 5:40 p.m.): Omicron is not what is causing stocks to fall, although a nascent bear market might be. If so, expect more carnage, but then a lulu-of-a-bear rally to suck everyone in and exhaust short-covering. The ostensible reason for the rally will be the debunking of  Omicron's supposed threat to humanity. This 'variant' and any vaccine said to cure it are a bad joke, actually, and most of us have grown much too tired of Fauci hokum to believe it, let

The short-term picture would darken if sellers take out the minor 'D' target at 49,360 shown in the chart. However, scalpers can bottom-fish there nonetheless with a very tight stop loss, or get short at the green line 'mechanically' if you know how to control the risk. A bigger chart suggests that Bertie would become a very appealing 'mechanical' buy if sellers drive it all the way down to the green line at 44,063.  Regardless, our ball market target at 89,780 will remain viable as long as 28,824 is not exceeded to the downside. ______ UPDATE (Nov 30, 6:07 p.m.): Bertie swam against the tide with a modest gain. It was boasting that it knows something that those who were dumping stocks don't. In this market, you have to trust seeming reckless speculation more than cold logic, so there's your answer. 

The 'not exactly bearish' T-Bond chart featured in last week's commentary was intended to make the point that the usual eggheads, pundits and nearly all forecasters have had bonds figured wrong for quite some time. They should be even more embarrassed and mystified by Friday's spectacular rally, which made the daily chart look still less bearish (while paying off pass-line bettors with a quick, 'mechanically' earned $11,000). The same yo-yos have attempted to cover their tracks with talk about how bonds are moving higher because of a global 'flight to safety'. But where, we should ask, was such talk back in November, when a steep rise in bond prices drew only skepticism from inflationistas? Looking ahead, the 168^15 rally target has been in play theoretically since mid-October, although the difficulties of overcoming p=162^25 have made the attainment of D any time soon less than certain. Whatever happens, the unwinding of overly enthusiastic bets on inflation will continue to lend buoyancy to Treasurys, presumably until a bear market in stocks creates a true flight to the safety of U.S. bonds. _______ UPDATE (Dec 1, 6:44 p.m. ET): The March contract is headed toward a short-term top at 163^30. Short aggressively there if you've been long for the ride up. Here's the chart.

Gold's squirrelly histrionics have become too tiresome to deserve our close attention, but we can still use the excellent, gnarly pattern shown to exploit any price action that plays to our game. For starters, a fall to p2=1700.80 could be bought 'mechanically', provided you know how to set-up a 'camouflage' trigger that would reduce the nearly $30k of entry risk on four contracts by perhaps 95%. Nudge me in the chat room at the appropriate time if you care and I will show you how. (Here's the equivalent pattern for Feb Gold, where p2=1702.60 and D=1629.00.) Notice that a 'mechanical' short deep in the 'discomfort zone' a couple of weeks ago would have paid off at the same odds as the buy suggested above. ______ UPDATE (Nov 30, 6:18 p.m.): The February contract fell to the red line, generating a $30,000 payoff for anyone who shorted the most recent 'mechanical' signal -- at 1849.40  on 11/10. The 1629.00 target remains valid, but let's see if bears can extend their winning streak with a further fall to p2=1702.60 first. Gold may suck much of the time, but that doesn't make it any easier for bearish bettors to profit.

I've used a reverse pattern to project lower prices because it is more conservative than conventional patterns that would have yielded even lower targets. That means you can attempt bottom-fishing at D=21.95, my worst-case objective for the near term; or short x=24.60 'mechanically' if you know how to set it up without risking your shirt.  An easy breach of D would imply more slippage top at least 21.95 or even 20.77. They are, respectively, the p2 and D pivots of the 'conventional pattern using A= 26.13 from 8/4. Here's the same picture transposed to March Silver. It shows 'D' at 22.01.

The dollar came down hard on Friday when the egregiously overrated 'Omicron' variant of Covid-19 seemed to provide hope to dollar bears that the U.S economy would soon reverse course and slip into depression. They might get their wish about the depression, since the price of just about everything has risen to levels where most middle class Americans are starting to throttle back on purchases, especially of cars, houses and appliances that are essential to fueling debt-based 'prosperity'. We would still caution against betting on the buck's demise, since it speared the 96.09 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of the pattern shown before getting hit by misguided sellers. Why is the dollar strong everywhere but in the U.S.?  Answer: Because stimulus has targeted Joe Sixpack, not just financial assets and real estate.