Rick Ackerman

The chart shows an easy path up to at least p2=4263.81 following Tuesday's launch from the 4218 midpoint resistance that had served briefly as our minimum upside target. If buyers lift it past this secondary pivot without showing much strain, it would signal a likely follow-through to D=4309.50. In the meantime, a pullback to x=4172.44 can be bought 'mechanically' with a 4126.00 stop-loss, provided it is cushioned by gains already booked. The pattern is gnarly enough that 4309.50 will offer an enticing opportunity to get short. Stay tuned to the chat room for real time guidance if the opportunity pans out. _______ UPDATE (Jun 24, 7:49 p.m.): The futures topped at 4263.75, exactly where forecast Sunday night. A stall here could be fatal, but let's give DaBoyz a chance to end the week with their only good trick: the short squeeze 

Hard selling on Friday generated a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart while also breaching a clear Hidden Pivot support at 4147.50 shown in the chart. This means that still lower prices are all but certain; however, bears shouldn't get their hopes too high. I say this because although the S&Ps, the Dow and the Russell 2000 got pounded last week, the chimpanzees who "manage" your money were applying a light touch to their flavor-of-the-month favorite, the Nasdaq 100. The implication is that any weakness we saw last week was tightly scripted, and that the chimps are simply rotating money so that it can hold stocks aloft more efficiently. Concerning the E-Mini S&Ps, look for a turn near 4100, or if not there, then around 4032. A 'reverse ABC' set-up on the 60-minute chart can be used to bottom fish, using a=4185.50 (6/17 at 1:00 p.m.) to anchor the pattern).  If you're uncertain about how to do this, wait for a simpler trade to come along that you understand. The short in this vehicle suggested by 'Farmer' in the Trading Room last Thursday night is a good example. It was simple to execute (if not without risk)  and is currently showing a profit of around $14,000 on four lots for anyone who followed him in and stuck with the position. _______ UPDATE (Jun 21, 10:38 a.m. ET):  A murderous short squeeze has turned the futures violently upward from 4126, well above my set-up level for bottom-fishing.  The closest obstacle is p=4218.25 of the pattern shown in the chart. It can serve for now as a minimum upside objective. _______ UPDATE (Jun 21, 9:40): The hysteria has hit 4221.50. No subscriber reported holding a position, so I have not provided tracking guidance. However, and for what it's worth, Farmer reports

My headlined enthusiasm for gold a few weeks ago looks to have been premature, as was my conjecture that the takedown artists who sometimes gang up on precious metals were finally outmatched by a waxing bull market. It would appear they are still very much in control, although I doubt they'll be able to push quotes much below 1600. That would represent a nearly 20% correction off last August's 2063 high -- perhaps all that could be imagined, given the deafening drumbeat these days warning of a horrific inflation that supposedly lies ahead.  For now, I'll recommend using p2=1700.70 (see inset) as a minimum downside projection for the near term. However, if this Hidden Pivot is easily breached, brace for more downside to at least D=1627.80. Alternatively, an unpaused upthrust exceeding 1826.40 would give bulls some breathing room, although it would not negate the bearish targets; that would require a print at 1919.30. _______ UPDATE (Jun 22, 11:34 p.m.): Bull have hung in there at p=1773.50, but the so far $12 breach of this midpoint Hidden Pivot suggests it will be a losing battle. Let's see what a new days brings.

The chimps who manage your hard-earned dollars must have decided back in August that they would hold this overvalued gas-bag aloft rather than subject it to a bear market. It has been marking time ever since, albeit with gratuitous swings in either direction, presumably to avoid getting cramps. From a technical standpoint, IWM would actually generate a 'mechanical' buy signal if it were to plummet to the green line (215.45).  Ordinarily I would rate this trade only a '5.7' or so on a 1-10 scale of desirability. But because a more serious breakdown seems unlikely, I am recommending the trade anyway, albeit for a ride merely to p=222.99.  Alternatively, IWM would become a fetching short at D=237.72 if it ever gets there. ______ UPDATE (Jul 8, 11:20 p.m. ET): The trade could actually trigger, so stay alert if you've been waiting.  Here's the chart, and I am recommending buying not options,  but as many shares as you can afford up to 400.  

Silver could get off easier than gold if the 24.33 target shown is the worst that sellers can do in this presumably minor bear cycle.  There's even a chance the turn could come from 25.47, a secondary pivot that can be used for bottom-fishing with a 'camouflage' setup.  In practice, this would entail drawing a conventional abc pattern on a chart of lesser degree to trigger the trade once the July contract has touched 25.47.  I'll also mention that, according to the tenets of 'Matt's Curse,' if the futures turn from within an inch of p2, the reaction rally has a good chance of exceeding C=28.90 of the bearish pattern.

Elsewhere on the home page, I've suggested taking last week's defenestration of the S&Ps and IWM with a grain of salt, since it is just the chimps shifting money amongst the various "themes" they determine with a toss of a dart each month. Even with the Guvmint force-feeding dollars into stocks, real estate and the consumer economy, it takes gargantuan sums to hold the shares of trillion-dollar companies like Apple, Amazon, Google and Microsoft continuously aloft, never mind move them higher. That's why Friday's breach of C=335.20 (see inset) is unlikely to be the start of a bear market, but rather a scripted way to economize on the continuation of a bull market whose demise is long overdue.  Well, yes, it's always possible a bear market has begun, but we'll likely do better looking for DIA to recover its footing somewhere in the range 320-327.  I am not using Hidden Pivots to project lows there, by the way, but rather the common-sense assumption that the important March 25 bottom at 320.62 is likely to hold. _______ UPDATE (Jun 22, 11:46 p.m. ET): After last week's decisive breakdown, DIA has rallied to trip a 'conventional' buy signal at x=339.49 shown in this chart. I don't much trust the signal, and so I am not recommending a trade. We rarely initiate one on this kind of signal, but I'll warm to the idea if bulls take on midpoint resistance at p=347.92 [corrected] with gusto.

We shouldn't be too surprised if bitcoin mania resurfaces a fourth time following a brutal correction, but first it will need to visit sufficient pain on all of the yahoos who got their feet wet above $40,000 to make them think twice about doing anything so foolish again. Those who got in at much lower prices -- for hundreds of dollars, even -- will of course continue to sit tight, putting a floor under the cryptocurrency somewhere between $20k and $30k. For now, though, it looks like BRTI is about to test support for a third time at p=31,800 (see inset).  This Hidden Pivot has proven resilient enough to make its decisive breach no better than an even-odds bet, assuming BRTI gets there at all.  We'll be watching in any event for signs that bitcoin's most ardent, deep-pocketed sponsors are cocky enough to hold the line at 30,000, even if they don't really have to just to prove something to skeptics. ______ UPDATE (Jun 21, 11:37 p.m. ET): Even though bitcoin has been down by as much as $3500 today, it looks well nigh invincible. China took a meat cleaver to bitcoin miners, and yet bears cannot even push this vehicle down to 30,000. Its deep-pocketed sponsors evidently believe that a test of that seemingly important number is so widely expected that it can't happen because bears have already sold out. We shall see, but BRTI acts as though it is well under control and being accumulated at these levels. ______ UPDATE (Jun 22, 10:14 a.m.): This morning's plunge made it clear that bitcoin-lovers are waiting for still-better prices. The decisive breach of p=31,800 AND 30,000 in one fell swoop implies BRTI will now fall to at least p2=26,422.  And yes, I am impressed at how They held it aloft

[The following was written by a San Francisco friend from the hedge fund world, Shawn Brown. It buttresses the suspicion that while there seems to be plenty of credit money available for speculation, the collateral behind it is getting thinner and shakier by the week.  The Fed, with $8 trillion of Treasury paper and other top-shelf collateral on its balance sheet, has monopolized the supply, leaving lending banks to scramble for collateral of their own that hasn't already been hocked twentyfold. As a result, central bank interventions are becoming more frequent, more complex and bigger, to the point where even the experts are having trouble determining whether the banking system is headed for a crack-up far larger than the one that took down Archegos a few months ago.  RA] Why is the Reverse Repo Facility breaking records daily and the Federal Reserve returning hundreds of billions in foreign currency swaps weekly?  These two concerning but mostly overlooked items seem to coincide with Bill Hwang’s disaster at Archegos Hedge Fund. We still have very little clarity on exactly what happened with conflicting reports on the actual fallout. Whether the fund was naked short derivatives or concentrated long media companies, these positions resulted in tens of billions in losses to a number of Too Big To Fail banks. Whatever occurred, shock waves are still rumbling throughout the intertwined global financial system. Who Are Those Guys? The current explosion of usage from the Fed’s Reverse Repo facility began on March 26 -- the same day Archegos ceased operations -- with 12 Participating Counterparties exchanging $11.45 billion for Treasury securities. We aren’t allowed to know who they were because it might cause a run on the institutions, or so the story goes.  Fast forward to this past Friday morning and 61 Counterparties wanted to

Flush with stimulus, the states are in a spending mood that can be summed up in a single word:  TOGA!!!!!  Take Oklahoma. Their latest budget reflects an annual increase of nearly 18%, according to a report from the Associated Press. It includes bigger earmarks for education, corporate and personal tax cuts, credits for school choice and even for film producers.  In Florida, outlays will rise by about 11% to a record $101.5 billion.  The extra spending will provide "bonuses for teachers, police and firefighters, and new construction projects at schools and colleges."  Believing they will still have money to spare, Florida lawmakers have also expanded sales-tax breaks for school and hurricane supplies and created a tax-free week for purchasers of museum and concert tickets and recreational gear for camping, fishing and surfing.  In New York, a $212 billion budget is nearly 10% higher than last year's, most of it coming from Federal relief. The Cuomo government is planning to boost aid to schools by $1.4 billion, and spend another $1.3 billion to overhaul Penn Station, among other projects. What Could Possibly Go Wrong? Federal aid amounts to fully 15% of what the states took in during fiscal year 2019, according to Moody's. Since they have until 2024 to spend the most recently disbursed Covid money, some states are waiting until later in the year to budget their windfalls. No question, increased spending by the states will have a bullish impact on the U.S. economy for the next several years. Even so, some are wondering what will happen when the money runs out. “I’m afraid that we are spending money and making commitments that we will not be able to sustain once that one-time federal money goes away,” said Sen. Bob Rankin, a Republican who sits on Colorado's joint budget committee.