Rick Ackerman

Although the pattern shown, with a 365.67 target, is clear and compelling, bulls have yet to tip their hand with a skirmish at the 350.44 midpoint pivot. They've yet to even reach it, actually, but until they do, and roundly thwomp it, we cannot confidently infer the target will be reached. For now, let p=350.44 serve as our minimum upside target for the near term.  The pattern should also be a winner for 'mechanical' set-ups, given the power of the impulse leg. _______ UPDATE (Jun 16, 12:35 a.m.): Bulls look more enfeebled than I could have imagined in May. Five weeks of trying have still yet to reach p=350.44, and I'm not sure whether this is a subtle sign of disaster to come, or perhaps just a minor stroke, but stocks feel leaden.

I moved IWM to the back burner more than a month ago, when its tedious move sideways extended far enough to turn a promising head-and-shoulders pattern into rubbish. The dismal scuddle has continued since, although I hesitate to ascribe this to a realization by the chimps who manage your money that small-caps are more overpriced than they have been at any other time in history. Such facts have seldom discouraged money managers from allocating even more of your hard-earned dollars for astronomically priced crap. Be that as it may, although I will keep IWM on the list for now, I'll update only if it does something remotely interesting. At the moment, that would imply an upthrust exceeding the 230.95 price peak recorded on  April 29. Even then, my interest would be more on the short side, using a 'reverse abc' pattern.  Make sure the 'Notifications' feature on your account dashboard is checked if you want to stay on top of this very-slowly-developing opportunity. _______ UPDATE (Jun 8, 10:40 p.m. ET): For reasons I mentioned in the chat room this evening, I'll recommend buying some put butterfly spreads. Specifically, you should bid 0.25 for eight Jul 16 215/220/225 'flies, good till canceled, with 0.05 discretion. Check back mid-morning for a possible price adjustment, since this bid may be too niggardly to fill. _______ UPDATE (Jun 9, 9:38 p.m.): A fill was reported at 0.28, but I'll wait for a second before I establish a tracking position.  The 0.05 discretion noted above implies you can pay up to 0.30 if you are unable to pry any loose at a lower price.

If we'd known the pandemic would trigger the most reckless monetary blowout in history, could anyone have imagined that the U.S. dollar a year later would have fallen by just 14%? That doesn't even qualify as a bear market, just a middling correction of a powerful bull run begun in 2008, a year ahead of the historic rally in stocks.  The Dollar Index was trading around 70 at the time, about to embark on a nine-year climb to 104 early in 2017.  It subsequently swooned as low as 88 early in 2018 but hasn't traded any lower since; it's currently at 90.12. That's with the Fed showering trillions of dollars in helicopter money on America, a feat that achieved a dubious milestone recently when central bank purchases of Treasury debt exceeded purchases by foreigners. Biden for his part has been ramping up outlandish spending proposals, promoting the timeless Democratic canard that "the rich" will pay for it all. The proposals are likely to grow even more outlandish, since Biden fears that a Republican Congressional victory in 2022 could close the window of opportunity for a fiscal expansion dwarfing FDR's New Deal. Stimulus 'a Drop in the Bucket' So why do I continue to insist nonetheless that we are headed into a catastrophic deflation? The short answer is that even tens of trillions of stimulus dollars is just a drop in the bucket compared to a deflationary juggernaut poised to suck inflation into a black hole. When the bubble finally pops, here's a list of things that will deflate like a tire with a hole in it before the central bank has a chance to even attempt a resuscitation:  * A hyperleveraged derivatives market valued notionally at $2 quadrillion  * The public-pension systems of two-dozen states  * Residential and commercial real

Sucks? Yeah, sure. Maybe in the eyes of crypto fanatics and the quacks who re-invent monetary policy every month. In actuality, few things in the material world suck less than gold. Sorry to resort to headline flim-flammery to get your attention, but it was time to upgrade our enthusiastic endorsement of gold -- and silver! -- to an outright declaration of love. If you’re a bullion investor, this means we are confident you can buy the stuff now without fear or qualm. And if your safe deposit box is already filled to overflowing with ingots and precious-metal coins purchased when gold was $300 an ounce, it’s time to rent more space. You can even tell kin and friends that bullion is about to embark on a long, profitable ascent without having to worry about their getting burned. More likely is that they will thank you profusely a year from now, especially if the money they’ve plowed into metals was drawn from tech stocks and other appallingly overpriced shares being distributed to greater fools these days by Wall Street’s mountebanks. Bullion's Correction Is Over Regularly readers of Rick’s Picks will know that we quickened our bullion drumbeat earlier this month after Comex futures exceeded a small but technically significant price peak on the daily chart just above $1800. Nothing as promising as this had happened since December, and it suggested that the painful correction begun from around $2060 last August was close to an end. There were more bullish signs to follow. For one, minor ABCD rallies began to exceed their ‘D’ targets, even as corrections fell shy of them. Under the rules of our proprietary Hidden Pivot System, this was unmistakable evidence that the dominant trend had shifted from bearish to bullish. Perhaps even more noticeable was the absence over

We've focused on a 2083.90 rally target that remains a strong bet to be reached.  More immediately, however, let's train our attention on the 1923.90 target shown, since it could conceivably yield a bull trade over the next day or so. Specifically, I'll recommend bidding 1894.20, stop 1884.20, if the futures have gone no higher than 1916.00. The implied entry risk is $4000 on four contracts, but you can interpolate using the micro-futures to cut that by as much as 90%. As always, an easy move past a Hidden Pivot resistance as clear as this one would be telegraphing a continuation of the rally. _______ UPDATE (June 1, 2:39 p.m. ET):  The 1894.20 bid I'd suggested missed the intraday low by just three ticks. I have not established a tracking position, however, because the futures went a tad higher than I'd anticipated before swooning $25 to nearly kiss our stink bid. Several subscribers reported doing the trade nonetheless, and it is sufficiently profitable at the moment -- i.e., around $1000 per contract -- that you should have little difficulty managing the risk.  A 1923.90 rally target still obtains. _______ UPDATE (Jun 3, 10:23 a.m.): Ha-ha. Just when I mention “no takedowns,” DaSleazeballs sock the futures with a $45 loss. The proximal cause of this fake selloff, abetted by evidently still-abundant, fearful clowns, was allegedly ‘bullish’ unemployment data. Stay the course! ______ UPDATE (Jun 3, 9:24 p.m.): Today's sucker-punch had gold reeling for barely an hour. Let's see if the menacing-looking close just off the lows has real teeth. Night owls up for a little excitement can try bottom-fishing at 18.59.20, stop 1858. 50. That's the midpoint HP support, on the 60-minute chart, of a= 1900.50  (7:00 a.m., 6/3). _______ UPDATE (Jun 4, 9:46 a.m.): A low of 1855.6o stopped out the trade before

A Hidden Pivot at 31.51 has served as our minimum upside target for the intermediate term, with a larger-degree target at 35.02 looming above it. Since July Silver has been too strong to swoon to a 'mechanical' bid on the bigger charts, here's a smaller one that projects to 29.25 that you can use to get long 'mechanically'.  The futures already tripped a buy related to this pattern when they pulled back to the green line (27.76) last week, but they would do so again by retracing to p=28.25 after trading up into the range 28.75 - 28.85. _______ UPDATE (June 1, 2:50 p.m.): Anyone aboard?  The trade did not trigger in the way I'd described, but if you did it anyway, use a 27.91 stop and a 29.24 target.  ______ UPDATE (June 1, 10:43 p.m.): The trade was stopped out, but a second trade that is more appealing would trigger at x=27.76 (shown in this chart).  Initial risk on four contracts would be $10,000, so the trade is recommended only to subscribers who either know how to cut that down to $2,000 or less using 'camouflage' or an 'rabc' entry trigger; or to those who have made significantly more than $10,000 from my previous recommendations in silver/gold futures. _______ UPDATE (Jun 2, 8:28 a.m.): The overnight low occurred at x=27.765 exactly, triggering the trade. The futures have since bounced as high as 28.07, generating a paper profit of a little more than $6000 on four contracts. Exit half of the position now. ______ UPDATE (Jun 2, 11:29 p.m.): Several subscribers reported doing the trade, which is currently showing a theoretical profit of about $2800 per contract with July Silver at 28.330.  With a perfectly timed entry to fill your sails, you're on you're own now, shooting for the 29.24 target noted

Bulls made no progress whatsoever last week toward a 4324.50 target, but that did not make it any less likely to be achieved.  In the meantime, I'll suggest focusing on a more modest objective at 4242.75 that is shown in the chart (inset).  The C-D leg has provided no opportunities so far to get long via a 'mechanical' set-up, but you should be alert to the possibility nonetheless in case the futures swoon.  Accordingly, a bid at the red line (p=  4192.5o) would require a 4175.75 stop-loss, implying about $3300 of initial risk on four contracts. ______ UPDATE (June 1, 3:01 p.m.): Today's gratuitous hump failed to trigger the trade, although it did make it less appealing.  The 4242.75 target remains viable nonetheless. _______ UPDATE (Jun 3, 9:48 p.m.): Reaching the 4242.75 target should have been a piece of cake, but the futures' failure to so should be viewed as warning of a possible bearish tone change. They are currently on a 'mechanical' short triggered at 4199.00 and predicated on a 4106.00 target. Here's the chart, which was discussed in the chat room as the trade was setting up. 

The pattern shown implies the Cubes are likely to reach D=368.67, a target 11% above that corresponds to one that I've proffered for DIA. The easy pop through p=333.06 lends weight to this forecast, as does the profitable 'mechanical' buy triggered two weeks ago at x=315.26. The pattern is obviously working for both trading and analysis, and we should therefore calibrate opportunities on the lesser charts to the Hidden Pivot levels on this one.  The next would follow a pullback from p2=350.87, but we may be able to design an entry trigger using 'rabc' on the lesser charts to get aboard without having to wait.  Stay tuned if you are interested. _____ UPDATE (Jun 3, 9:58 p.m. ET): Anyone home?  Bid 0.20 for four June 28 280/290/300 put butterflies, day order.  If you don't know how, watch the lesson on butterfly spreading available via your account page. This is a longshot bet on an imminent plunge.

The pattern shown, with a 383.00 target that lies 11% above, is just gnarly enough to work. It is similar to one featured in the Hidden Pivot Method Course, and it has the particular advantage of being invisible to most other chartists and traders. Price action at p is not exactly reassuring on whether D will be reached, but p2=361.90 looks like a good bet as a minimum upside projection for the next 4-6 weeks. A swoon to the green line (319.69) would most surely raise the kind of fears that 'mechanical' bids thrive on, but for now we'll concentrate on trades of smaller degree in order to trade with the trend. That would imply rabc patterns on the hourly chart, going back no more than two weeks. _______ UPDATE (Jun 3, 10:06 p.m.): Bid 0.20 for four Jun 30 320/325/330 put butterfly spreads, day order.  The order may be tough to fill at that price, so stay tuned for a possible intraday adjustment.