Rick Ackerman

The Russell Index gave back surprisingly little of Monday's vaccine-powered lunatic leap, all but clinching an eventual move to the 184.73 target shown in the chart.  It looks sufficiently clear and compelling to suggest it may be a good place to attempt getting short, but I'd suggest doing so only if we are able to profit from the implied rally. Ideally, we'll have a chance to get long on a retracement to p=163.41. A 'mechanical' bid there would require a 156.30 stop-loss. It may be possible to cut the entry risk using an 'rABC trigger' on a lesser chart. _______ UPDATE (Nov 18, 8:50 p.m.): The selloff in the final two hours offered a glimmer of sanity. It also could be taken as evidence that the dirtballs who have been working tirelessly to distribute shares before the wall of worry collapses are finding it increasingly difficult to complete the job. _______ UPDATE (Nov 24, 9:17 p.m.): Several subscribers appear to have gotten short after I posted a timely alert in the chat room. IWM went on to slightly exceed the 184.73 target before closing a hair below it. This is a longshot bet, since we are fading one of the most powerful rallies ever. Even so, a modest speculation was warranted because the target is so clear and compelling. I  have not established a tracking position, but informally I'd suggest covering if this rabid little scumsucker pushes above 185.50. _______ UPDATE (Nov 25, 3:52 p.m.): IWM fell this morning to a low at 181.99 that would have produced a profit of as much as $520 per round lot for anyone who got short Wednesday at my longstanding target. A commensurate profit could have been reaped if you'd bought TZA, an ETF vehicle equivalent to being 3x short the Russell 2000.

The futures have traversed a minefield of anxieties since the August run-up to record highs, much of it tradeable if inscrutable. They would become a 'mechanical' buy for a second time on a pullback to the green line (11,193), stop 10,655. The opportunity could materialize next week on pronounced weakness, but more likely would be a continuation of November's steep uptrend to its implied target at 12,804.  Getting aboard with-the-trend will be challenging in any case, since it has attracted an eager following.  Stay tuned if you care. _______ UPDATE (Nov 18, 8:58 p.m. EST): The futures have grown timid without becoming interesting in either of the ways I'd hypothesized above. What this implies is that they are more like to do "something" soon.   

We took a step back during this class to ponder several aspects of the Hidden Pivot Method that are subjective rather than based rules-based. Even the ‘mechanical’ set-ups that have become our workhorse for trading are not derived entirely from-the-numbers, since we must judge the strength of the impulse leg with our eyes rather than via calculations to produce optimal trades. This lesson delves into such concerns with an eye toward trading less often but more profitably.

Tech stocks have hit a wall, unable to remain afloat on a tide of stressful news. Although Wall Street would have us believe investors shouldn't care who wins the election, this idea is preposterous.  There is simply no way that a takeover of Capitol Hill by the Democrats could be perceived as good for business and the economy.  But there's a Catch-22 if Trump succeeds, since a court decision paving the way for a second term could gravely unsettle America for years to come. A vaccine remains a bullish wild card, as the mindless herd demonstrated on Monday. Pfizer announced a drug that supposedly has been 90% effective in trials, touching off the most powerful one-day rally in stock-market history. The clinical basis for the drug maker's claim went largely unexplored at first, presumably because the stock market's canny masters had every reason to avoid hard questions that might queer the celebratory mood .  But doubts surfaced on Tuesday nonetheless, causing shares to extend Monday's tech-led retreat. Tiredness seems likely to remain the market's theme until after the election is settled, which could take as long as two months. Small-cap stocks may be raring to go because that is the 'story' the stock market's masters have been hyping non-stop, but they will not get very far with the FAANGs and other insanely overbought lockdown winners weighing them down. Conclusive news of a truly effective vaccine could goose stocks into a parabola at any time of day or night. However, even a truly miraculous vaccine would not suffice to justify the sensational earnings multiples achieved by many stocks after the lockdown. This could present as promising an opportunity to "buy the rumor and sell the news" as a trader could hope for. _______ UPDATE (Nov 11, 6:35 p.m.):  Stocks showed no

The acrid aroma of voter fraud has grown so strong that even Biden supporters must smell it. To them, however, it undoubtedly has a fragrance as sweet as lilacs in August. Unfortunately for America, no matter how deep, wide and ugly the scandal might become, it may not be enough to overturn the election result. The news media have demonstrated their ability to control the narrative so completely, and to snuff those who would challenge it so brutally, that it's possible nothing short of a new election can change the outcome. That is not to say Trump's all-out effort to prove widespread fraud is just so much tilting at windmills. In Wisconsin, for example, there is evidence of tampering so brazen that it recalls the days when the Kansas City mafia ran a wide swath of Las Vegas. They were skimming one casino's profits so greedily that a New York capo stepped in to warn KC's wiseguys to leave a little profit for the house. In Milwaukee, and conceivably many other places, Democrats seem to have departed recklessly from the don's call for moderation when stealing, Here's some damning analysis of the city's vote from Jack Cashill of AmericanThinker.com: "The most striking feature of the data is a fact that cries out for clarification: In seven wards, voter turnout appears to have exceeded [registrations by] 100 percent. In two of those wards, turnout exceeded 200 percent. In another 15 wards, voter turnout exceeded 95 percent. Joe Biden carried 21 of the 22 wards of the 95-plus-percent wards. But then again, he carried all but one of the 67 additional wards in which the turnout was above 90 percent and won 80 percent of the vote citywide. In 25 wards, Biden received 97 percent or more of the vote, none higher

The rally slightly exceeded my minimum projection of 3500, but not by enough to clinch more upside to the pattern's secondary pivot (p2) at p2=3651, let alone to D=3802.  Bulls have already used up a 'mechanical' set-up made possible by a pullback two weeks ago to the green line. The result, although solidly profitable, would have taxed traders with a pullback that nearly stopped out the position and put it briefly in a $12,000 deficit. The ups and downs didn't negate the target, although they made clear that investors were especially anxious about the election. And so they shall remain, with little relief in prospect if Biden's victory holds. If the stock market seems stable or even moderately buoyant in the weeks ahead as I expect, we should infer that shares are under deft distribution by smart players. We shall respond accordingly. ______ UPDATE (Nov 9, 8:03 a.m. ET): Overnight, the most powerful rally in history hit the p2 target at 3651.19 (see inset), pulled back 50 points, and now looks eager o go for the next, 3802.25. The targets and trend forecasts work so perfectly that there would be little point in my trying to explain what has happened. You either believe it is rational or you don't -- and even that has no value. _______ UPDATE (Nov 9, 6:08 p.m.): The rally detumesced by half, but not before exceeding the secondary pivot at 3651 by 17 points. That's enough to shorten the odds of a follow-through to 3802 without quite guaranteeing it. A  pullback to the green line at 3349, however unlikely, might seem like the end of the world, but keep in mind that it would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, stop 3197. _______ UPDATE (Nov 11, 5:56 p.m.): This minor bullish pattern has delivered two profitable 'mechanical'

I've focused on a lesser rally pattern that is more bullish than the one shown in the ES tout because this vehicle is likely to lead the charge. It would take relatively modest push to achieve the 12533 target, but the futures will first need to close for two consecutive days above p2=12,136 or trade more than 80 points above it before we can assume a move to the target is coming. A pullback in the meantime to p=11738 would trip an enticing 'mechanical' buy, but the entry risk of  $13,000 per contract  implied by the 11473 stop-loss would necessitate the use of a 'camouflage' entry set-up designed to reduce that by at least 95%. Stay tuned. _______ UPDATE (Nov 9, 8:12 a.m.): When I said it would take a modest push to reach the target, I hadn't imagined this might occur in the space of just half a day. Modest that ain't.  The pullback from an overnight high at 12408 was too violent for any swing traders to have survived, but not the buy-and-hold chimps who have ruled the markets -- the tech stocks, actually -- all along.  ______ UPDATE (Nov 9, 6:18 p.m.):  The 12,533 target remains viable, predicated on a 'mechanical' buy at p=11,738, stop 11,473. A more conservative bet would be to initiate the trade at 11,341, stop 10,943, but there are no guarantees the retracement will get down there. ______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 7:14 p.m.): The 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to x=11,341 has been downgraded to 'unappealing', since the rally leg being corrected came close to achieving its 12,533 target. The near-miss is bearish, even if the target remains theoretically viable. The next appealing buy would come on a pullback into the 'dead zone' between two important lows at, respectively, 10,660 (8/24) and 10,942

The Cubes made strong headway last week toward a 312.29 target that we've leveraged with some Nov 20 305/310/315 call butterflies. We bought 16 of them for 0.10 before the election, and I advised subscribers to take profits on half when the price doubled days later. The spread subsequently traded for as much as 0.50, allowing more profit-taking at five times the original price. The spread can widen to 5.00 with the stock trading at 310 on November 20, which would imply a $500 payoff per, or 50-to-1. I would therefore suggest holding a couple of contracts until expiration, but feel free to take profits on the remaining six (or multiple thereof) at any time. Keep in mind that $5.00 ($500) is a theoretical maximum and that we would be doing well to exit for $350 or so -- still not bad. That's because the middle strike we are short would carry $1-$2 of risk premium even with the stock trading at exactly 310 seconds before the options expire. Their theoretical value would be zero, but traders would be willing to pay up for them to avoid the uncertainty of being assigned over the weekend. This is done by lottery, and it could leave one unexpectedly short $30,000 worth of stock on Monday for each option left uncovered. If you would like to learn more about butterfly spreading, go to your account page and check out the video recording I've prepared on the subject. _______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 7:20 p.m.): The likelihood of the 312.29 target being reached before our spreads expire diminished with today's plunge, which created a bearish 'island reversal' on the daily chart. ______ UPDATE (Nov 11, 6:14 p.m.): Nice rally, but I'm not persuaded it's capable of going much higher. We'll give it the benefit of

Gold's best week since August triggered a theoretical buy signal at 1950.80, activating a minimum upside projection to p=2050.  The move is not yet a done deal, but it would rate better odds if the futures can push above the 1983.80 'external' peak recorded on 9/16. Even then, I would expect herky-jerky price movement that might actually be short-able as a scalp-trade. The 2250 target may look overly ambitious, but it would become an odds-on bet if the rally impales the 2050.60 midpoint pivot on the first try. The powerful A-B impulse leg of the pattern is likely to yield excellent odds for 'mechanical' entries at either p or  x (the green line) if the opportunity should arise. _______ UPDATE (Nov 9, 6:35 p.m. ET):  Today's wicked plunge did not negate the bullishness of the daily chart, but it may have slightly lowered its potential.  The dive to slightly below the pattern's point 'C' low would have stopped out many bulls, unburdening this bounce from profit-taking. But if the rebound is weak, failing to exceed, say, $1900 over the next couple of days, I'd take it as a bearish sign. ______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 7:25 p.m.): Day one of the rebound was encouraging, lifting the futures $50 above Monday's bombed-out low. Let's see if bulls can tack on a second straight day of gains. [They didn't, but neither did they crash C=1848. The jury is still out. _______ UPDATE (Nov 12, 9:11 p.m.): Zzzzzzzz.