Rick Ackerman

The Nasdaq 100 and the usually giddy FAANGs have been so revved up since March that their recent idleness is understandable, especially with the uncertainty of the election hanging over them. In contrast, the Indoos and the Russell 2000 look like they are developing thrust to celebrate a Trump victory. When it happens, don't be surprised to see the Naz and the techs underperform relative to their feverish trajectory since March. Over that time, 'value' took a back seat to 'growth' for long enough to raise doubts in investors' minds about the sanity of those they've entrusted with their nest eggs. That's why we should expect portfolio  managers to fake a demonstration that value consciousness is not dead. Nasdaq futures are a cinch nevertheless to hit the 12,804 target shown in the chart as soon as Trump's re-election is viewed on Wall Street as likely. Just don't expect the erstwhile lunatic stocks to rampage with the kind of rabid fervor they displayed in the past. _______ UPDATE (Oct 27, 9:54 p.m.): A fall to the green line (1193.44) would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, stop 10,656, that's more enticing than a similar one in the E-Mini S&Ps. I'd suggest using an rABC trigger on a smaller chart to initiate the trade, or to tune to the chat room for guidance if you don't know how. ______ UPDATE (Oct 28, 10:46 p.m.): I'll wait to hear from subscribers who bought at the green line before I establish a tracking position. It would take a 10,656 stop-loss. ______ UPDATE Oct 29, 10:03 p.m.):  The trade triggered and went on to produce a profit intraday of as much as $5300 per contract intraday. Some subscribers reported having done it, but they all appear to have exited before the futures dove back to the green

Gold is trading exactly where it was in mid-July, a long-term hold for investors with plenty of patience. The lack of upward progress tempts one to say that it is untradeable, but this is untrue. The chart shows four 'mechanical' buy signals  over the last two weeks that could have produced $7600 in profits per contract for anyone who simply bought when the futures came down to the green line, then sold when they hit the red line. At Friday's close the futures had embarked on yet another repeat of this money-maker. A $1900 profit seemed so certain, in fact, that any experienced trader would have avoided the trade like the plague. We'll be interested to see how December Gold extricates itself from a pattern that has become suspiciously predictable. Stay tuned. _______ UPDATE (Oct 28, 10:53): Today's dive shifted the burden of proof back to bulls. The day-ending breach of p=1873.10 in this chart implies the futures are headed down to at least p2=1839.90, or to D=1806.70 if any lower.  If a rally intervenes and reaches the green line, it would trigger a mechanical short, stop 1939.50. _____ UPDATE (Oct 29, 10:13 p.m.): A thrust exceeding 1885.10 today would turn the short-term picture mildly bullish. Even so, the bearish targets identified above will remain valid unless C=1939.40 is exceeded to the upside

Silver has behaved more bullishly than gold, but that's not saying much. Like gold, it has achieved no net gain in three months, even as it has generated minor impulse legs that are slightly more powerful. It's tracing out the completion of one now, in the form of a C-D follow-through leg that points to 26.40.  A pullback first to x= 24.33 (the green line) would trigger a mechanical buy -- one sufficiently attractive that  I would rate the opportunity a juicy '7.9' on our homegrown scale. Mindful of the $3400 entry risk per contract that this would entail, I will be looking for clever ways to get aboard, most likely an rABC set-up on the 15-minute (or less) chart. ______ UPDATE (Oct 28, 11:04): Unlike gold, December Silver has yet to breach a midpoint support at 22.825 that 's crucial to the short-term picture.  If it does, particularly if a two-day close below the red line ensues, that would portend more slippage to at least p2=21.38, or 19.94 if any lower. _______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 10:17 p.m.): Sellers cracked the 22.82 midpoint support today, raising a yellow flag despite the 75-cent rally that followed. Bulls will need a print at 25.72 to justify a confidently bullish bias. _______ UPDATE (Nov 2, 9:55): The 'mechanical' short triggered at 24.25, implying a stop-loss at 25.70, just above the point 'C' high. No one reported doing the trade in the chat room, but if you did, bring the stop down to 24.77, where a print would generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. ______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 12:05 a.m.): There was a theoretical profit of $6200 per contract in the short position at today's low, but I am not tracking it because interest in the chat room appears to be

We cashed out some profitable butterfly spreads pegged to a still-viable 151.94 rally target, but there's no rush to put on the position again. To be sure, AAPL remains capable of reaching the target in the weeks following a Trump victory. But as I tried to make clear here and in the chat room, the stock is unlikely to take off until investors are pretty confident about this. Things were edging in that direction on Friday after Biden got hit with some damning charges concerning graft and corruption that made him and his family distrustfully rich during his 50-year career as a politician.  But the reaction so far to the news, which has been covered only by Fox, has not been strong enough to light a fuse on Wall Street. Athough the smart-money guys who manipulate AAPL for a living may seem bold at times, they are in fact wussies who would not dare make the slightest move unless they are certain the headlines or story of the hour will support it. For now, let's see how much further they take the stock down before we jump on some more bull spreads. ______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 10:25 p.m. ET): AAPL's quarterly results in China disappointed, and that will put some drag on this otherwise unstoppable bull-market engine. The negative report will be forgotten by Monday and will have no effect in any case after the election. Stay tuned, since Monday's edition may contain suggestions for leveraging the gusher-of-relief rally that will happen if Trump wins.

The Indoos have been lollygagging for more than two months, biding their time until DaBoyz are fairly certain of how the election will turn out. That could come as early as next week if the stench of corruption swirling around Biden becomes too powerful for the mainstream media to ignore. That could take some doing at the New York Times, whose editorial offices are already an ethical cesspool, and at the Washington Post, which is owned by a man, Jeff Bezos, who obviously despises Trump. Ditto for Mike Bloomberg's vast news organization. In the meantime, DIA, an ETF proxy for the Dow Industrials, has been in a holding pattern. My gut feeling is that it will hit the 297.18 target regardless of who wins the presidential election, but if it's Biden, the Indoos will fall even more sharply than they did in March. The easiest way to leverage this scenario is to buy way-out-of-the-money puts that expire three to four weeks after the election.  Accordingly, I'll recommend bidding a very stingy 0.44 for ten Nov 27 240/250/260 put butterflies. (It's worth around 0.58.) If you are uncertain about how to do this, please review the recorded lesson on butterfly spreads located on your account page. This order is good through Wednesday, but I may adjust it, possibly with the goal of legging into the spread for significantly less. _____ UPDATE (Oct 28, 11:10): The cautious bid I advised was a crucial step behind the big move down, so you can shelve the order for now. _______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 10:33 p.m.): DIA dipped impulsively beneath a key low at 265.27 recorded on 9/24. This would have stopped out more than a few bulls and therefore lightened the burden of profit-taking on the bounce. It wasn't much of a bounce, however,

We hold ten Nov 6 130 puts for 0.16 as a hedge against a Biden victory, but they will offer scant consolation if the tragedy of a Biden/Harris administration comes to pass. I consider this improbable, however, and the likelihood of Trump's re-election would be confirmed if IWM exceeds the 169.39 target shown with a manic leap. It looked as though buyers were developing thrust for this last week, when would-be resistance at p2=160.36 was gradually turned into support. The Russell 2000 and the Industrial Average have lagged the Nasdaq 100 since March, but they appear eager to make up for lost time. A strong across-the-board rally this week would imply that investors have finally realized the pollsters are the same nitwits they were in 2016. _______ UPDATE (Oct 26, 9:56 p.m. ET): Sell half your puts if they double in price. They traded back up to 0.16 today, and although that is our official entry price, some subscribers reported getting in for as little as 0.08. _____ UPDATE (Oct 28, 11:11 p.m) With stocks plunging today, the puts traded as high as 0.35, allowing some subscribers to as much as quadruple their initial stake. At the very least, using an 'official' price of 0.16 representing the worst actual fill reported on entry, subscribers would have been able to double out of half of their positions at 0.32 as advised. Now offer three more puts to close for 1.10 and keeping the remaining two until next week. ______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 10:38):  The talking heads said investors were 'hopeful' for a few hours today that Biden stimulus will be good for small-caps. Not much we can do about it but sit tight. The puts have some critical time left on them.

I've returned to the long-term chart, which shows a trendline that precisely foretold the so-far modest 3%  rally begun in early September from 91.75. It's plain to see that the Dollar Index will retest the line, which comes in around 92.13 this week. I expect the support not only to be reached, but to be at least slightly exceeded. That would not necessarily doom the dollar, but it could conceivably trigger a strong snap-back rally once bulls have been shaken out. Alternatively, if weakness continues below the trendline, my minimum target would be 91.72, and thence 90.20, and finally 88.69. These are Hidden Pivot levels that come from a bearish pattern shown in this weekly chart.

Yet another October surprise!  I'm not referring to the rock-solid evidence that surfaced last week linking Sleazy Joe directly to his son's shady business deals and the huge kickbacks they've generated over the years. No, I'm talking about something even more unexpected: It's becoming cool for African Americans to vote for Trump and to openly support him. Rapper Kanye West started things rolling in April with a full-throated endorsement that caused jaws to drop in the entertainment world. He took a lot of heat for it but stood his ground, contending the Trump had done more for blacks in three short years than the Democrats have accomplished since the Civil Rights Act became law more than 50 years ago.  Although Kanye later decided to run or president himself, his pro-Trump message continued to reverberate in the black community. Now it has emboldened some of the rap world's biggest stars, including Ice Cube and 50 Cent, to openly declare their support for Trump. After checking out Biden's tax proposal, the latter reportedly was concerned it would reduce him to 20 Cent. His endorsement, along with a few others that have followed, including most recently from Waka Flocka Flame, have helped push the President's approval rating among African Americans to 46%, up from 25% just a week ago. This is according to the latest Rasmussen survey, and even if these numbers turn out to have been way off, no one doubts that Trump has picked up a significant number of African American votes since 2016. Undeniable Job Gains Biden's miserable performance in the second debate, including a half-dozen lapses into senile babble, undoubtedly contributed to the Rasmussen result. But there is something far bigger at work. It began in the streets of Seattle and Portland last summer, when riots aimed at "the

I was only mildly bearish on this vehicle when the week began, but Wednesday's intraday high generated a divergent stochastic peak that could spell trouble just ahead. Accordingly, I'll recommend buying ten Nov 6 130 puts for 0.15-0.20.  This is a highly speculative bet, and you should be prepared to lose it all. But it seems underpriced to me, since IWM has shown itself capable of falling 20 points in a single day. The position will settle after the election, and that makes the puts look like an even better buy. _______ UPDATE (Oct 22, 12:43 p.m.): Subscribers reported buying the puts, so I will track ten of them for 0.16, the highest price paid. I've suggested buying a few more for 0.09, day order, but keep in mind that this is money you should feel comfortable kissing goodbye.