Rick Ackerman

The Cubes' ascent has slowed recently, but there has never been much doubt where they are headed: to 283.72, the 'D' target of the pattern shown (see inset). This is a slight upward adjustment from the 283.35 target given here earlier, but the change will have no bearing on how we trade this vehicle. The last 'mechanical' buying opportunity came at p=267.52 on Monday morning, but it required patience and guts to stay with it during the ratcheting move lower over the next two days. We can be confident D will be reached because of the way buyers gapped through the midpoint resistance at 267.52 ten days ago. ______ UPDATE (Aug 17, 7:26 p.m. ET): Well, okay, a trend failure at p2=275.62 should not be ruled out, especially since Monday's bullish effusion stalled a micron above it. We should know within 24 hours whether bulls have the moxie to get past this Hidden Pivot resistance. ______ UPDATE (Aug 18, 6:06 p.m.): 283.72, here we come!  QQQ's lunatic sponsors reasserted their dominance, turning the 275.62 secondary pivot from resistance into a launching pad.   Short the target using Aug 28 puts priced under 1.00, but don't risk more than you are able to lose painlessly. The trade should be initiated with QQQ within no more than 0.05 points of the target.

Although I'm confident today's vicious selloff in bullion, the worst in more than seven years, will prove to be merely corrective, I'm not so sure about the selling that has hit the institutionally blessed 'lunatic' stocks, AAPL in particular.  The iPhone seller recently achieved a valuation of nearly $2 trillion, putting it well above Aramco and every other company whose shares have been traded on an exchange. The bearish case is not based on valuations, however, but on the fact that the stock's recent top occurred precisely at the 'secondary Hidden Pivot' of a major uptrend. This is shown in the chart as a stall at p2, the pink line at 457.37. Trend failures that occur exactly at this line are notoriously dangerous, although I aired my doubts at the time that this particular stall would prove fatal. The downtrend has since lengthened as AAPL has fallen on three of the last four days.  A 490.97 rally target still outstanding is valid and will remain so unless the stock plummets to $355, a 20% decline from here. However, we should be on our guard and open-minded to the possibility that the most grandiose, delusional rally ever has come to a quiet end. It is not quite as ominous as that cough in the second reel of a melodrama, but neither should we assume that it is just Garbo with a touch of hay fever.

Elsewhere on this page, I've explained why the memorably nasty selloff in silver is unlikely to prove fatal. My reasons are technical, based on a recent rally spike that exceeded an 'external' peak recorded seven years ago.  Price action in gold corroborates this with evidence that is not so esoteric. Specifically, last week's spike to record highs exceeded a clear target on the weekly chart at 2031.30. Although there were other, higher targets that went unfulfilled, the December contract's upside penetration of a Hidden Pivot resistance we can be certain of is indisputably bullish. The correction likely has farther to go, however, and we shouldn't be surprised if it probes round-number support at 1800, or even 1700, before sellers are exhausted in perhaps 6-10 days. _______ UPDATE (Aug 13, 8:59 p.m. ET): The futures have been struggling for loft, but we can still use p=2008.90 shown in this chart as a minimum upside target for the near term. As always, a  decisive push past a midpoint resistance, especially on first contact, would shorten the odds of a finishing stroke to D=2143.50.

Silver suffered its worst one-day drop in as long as we can recall, but this should be viewed as merely corrective rather than the end of the bull market begun in March from around $12. I am optimistic because last week's high at 29.915 decisively exceeded an 'external' peak at 29.32 recorded more than seven years ago. That peak is what we refer to as a 'look-to-the-lefter', and although by definition it is visually insignificant, it offers just enough resistance to help us distinguish between half-hearted rallies and the real McCoy. If the buying driving silver higher in recent weeks had lacked guts, it would have failed to penetrate the long-ago peak. That said, I can only guess right now how low the selloff will go. Somewhere between $23 and $24 seems visually logical on the intraday charts because of late July's consolidation above $23, but to make any headway bears will first have to force the futures beneath $25 on a closing basis to show who's boss. ______ UPDATE (Aug 12, 4:13 p.m. ET): The futures bottomed almost exactly between $23 and $24 as anticipated. Although bulls dominated for the rest of the day, the lows will probably need to be tested before a rally to $30 and higher can begin in earnest. ______ UPDATE (Aug 13, 9:10 p.m.): Silver's energetic rebound from Tuesday's shallow abyss has 'bull market' written all over it.  Nasty selloffs are supposed to be recouped quickly, and that is exactly what is happening. Its bounce has outpaced gold's by moving decisively above a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 26.98. This suggests not only that the futures will achieve a minimum D=30.385 (click here for chart), and soon, but that we can expect a close above it with little ado.

Short covering toward the end of the session recouped about 20% of the day's losses, but not before sellers had damaged the intraday charts by overshooting a clear Hidden Pivot support at 3222.00. Looking just ahead, a corresponding failure of minor uptrends to reach their 'D' targets would provide further evidence that the dominant trend may have shifted to bearish. Bulls could remedy that quickly with a thrust exceeding 3361.25 overnight or Wednesday morning, but if they fail, look for the futures to grope their way down to at least 3300 in search of support.______ UPDATE (Aug 12, 4:32 p.m.): What on earth could I have been thinking? A guy would have to be crazy to expect the S&Ps to fall for more than a day. Wednesday's ratcheting short squeeze managed a new record high, a presumptive installment on the 3398.00 target shown in this chart. Look for a tradeable pullback from that number, but don't expect it to last. _______ UPDATE (Aug 13, 11:14 p.m.): I almost forgot about an even more compelling target at 3392.75 that I began drum-rolling in June.  It's shown in this chart, and I'll be surprised if buyers turn it into the usual chopped liver. Combined with the lesser 'D' target at 3398.00 noted above, along with February's record high for good measure, and you have a 40-foot thick slab of concrete supply just above. The futures might poke past it briefly, but it seems most unlikely to me that they will simply blow past it and keep going. If they merely pussyfoot in a range between the two targets on Friday, I'd suggest taking home a few SPY or DIA puts over the weekend. We are going up against the steepest, most powerful rally in history, so don't bet more than you could

Bulls got badly trapped on a run-up to $30 Thursday night, but the subsequent selloff to 27.37 ran into serious buying early in the session. This could help build a base to launch September Silver to new recovery highs as the week unfolds. Our rally target remains 31.56 for the moment, and odds of this Hidden Pivot being achieved would shorten if buyers can levitate the futures above 28.99 Sunday evening. That would leave shorts on the ropes to provide additional boost when the regular session resumes Monday morning.  Alternatively, if the downtrend resumes on Sunday, you can bottom-fish with an rABC pattern that uses 26.835 (see inset) as a possible reversal point. _______ UPDATE (Aug 10, 7:04 p.m. ET): Silver bulls were raring to go, unintimidated by the alarming drift of the Dow Industrials toward new record highs. It is reassuring to see bullion unfazed by such recklessness._______ UPDATE (Aug 11, 8:35 a.m.): The reckless, relentless rally in the Dow has finally taken its toll on bullion. Now, if Sep Silver cannot hold above p2=27.493 in this chart, look for more downside to at least D=27.125. A tradeable low is possible there, and it can be leveraged with the tightest imaginable rABC, predicated on a precise turn.

Much as I'd hoped to find a technical glimmer of sanity, it is nowhere in sight on DIA's intraday charts.  The island-gap reversal (see inset) back in early June was ostensibly bearish, but last week's consolidation above the gap and the midpoint Hidden Pivot of the very bullish pattern shown suggests bears are in for at least a few more weeks of brutally tough love. Friday's pop above p was slight, but the fact that DIA closed above it, and that this occurred on the high end of the week's final hourly bar, suggests that bulls are as revved up as they were in early April, before they embarked on the most powerful and financially consequential rally in history. The 297.18 target shown would leave the Dow just a hair shy of 30,000, and there's no point in fighting it. Our trading bias will remain bullish for the foreseeable future, presumably via 'mechanical' entries of a lesser degree than the chart shown. A pullback of one full HP level, however unlikely, would be a screaming 'mechanical' buy. _______ UPDATE (Aug 12, 4:38 p.m. ET): Buyers are closing on p2=285.16 (see inset) -- a good place to look for a tradeable stall, especially if you've been long on the way up. _______ UPDATE (Aug 19, 8:40 p.m.): The 285.16 rally target and the trade remain valid, although today's drop occurred with DIA having gotten no higher than 281.76.

The stock's vertical climb reversed Friday from within a hair of a technical target I'd drum-rolled a while back, allowing subscribers to initiate short positions with puts that went in-the-black almost instantly, just as we should prefer.  We all ended the day wondering, however, how long it would take for The Thing That Wouldn't Die to rev its jets for another rampage.  I'd estimate that an eventual move to at least 490.97, the Hidden Pivot target shown in the chart, is an 80% shot, given the way short-covering madmen gapped the stock through two HP levels in just two days as August began.  By last week, though, buyers were overdue for a breather, even if not looking spent. Although a retracement to the red line (p=423.78) would trip a 'mechanical' buy, I'll suggest holding out for even better prices if we should decide to jump in at all. AAPL hasn't had a correction lasting longer than three consecutive days since before the March crash, but if it were to whip around early this week and take out last week's record peak on less than four days' rest, that would be amazing but also appalling, since it would imply a degree of heedlessness and greed on the part of buyers (including the Swiss central bank, apparently) that until now had been unimaginable. AAPL has friends in high places, but that doesn't mean they aren't just as crazy as lowly portfolio managers who are paid to stay fully invested at all times in just ten stocks. _______ UPDATE (Aug 10, 8:05 p.m. ET):  It turns out that Switzerland owns $6.3 billion worth of Apple shares, and that the burghers are continuing to add to this position with flim-flammery that even Powell & Co. must envy.  Here's the full story from Wolfe Richter. _______

I'd be eager to guarantee a thrust to 3392.75, a target that has allowed us to ride confidently with the trend since mid-June, but for the fact that another, lesser Hidden Pivot resistance at 3357.00, also broached here earlier, looks too clear and compelling to write off as a patsy.  Short the lower number with a stop-loss as tight as you can abide, but be prepared to see it penetrated when the futures decide on what could prove to be a finishing stroke to 3392.75. I'd like to try shorting there as well, since it is close enough to the 3396.50 record high achieved in mid-February to cause more than a little anxiety and uncertainty among those we compete against for trading dollars. But first let's see how the rabble handle 3357.00, a modest leap from here. It could get waylaid by some unexpectedly grim headline Sunday night, but if the story concerns anything less than a collision between Earth and a massive asteroid, don't expect it to have much impact on the torch mob that has been goading this rabid beast skyward. _______ UPDATE (Aug 10, 8:19 p.m.):  DaBoyz struggled all night and then all day to get past the Hidden Pivot resistance flagged above, but ultimately they took the futures no higher than 3357.25, a single tick from where I'd anticipated a tradeable top.  A short position utilizing the target as suggested could have produced a profit of as much as $5000 on four contracts, since the futures swooned from 3555.25 to 3329.00 just after the opening. Now, look for the rabble to bully their way past the resistance to a potentially more important one at 3392.75.