Buyers easily handled 'hidden' resistance last week at p2=24.57, implying the futures remain on track for a run-up to at least 26.20. [Changed to correct a rickism that gave the target initially as 26.01.] This target is slightly lower than the one previously given, since it's derived from a one-off 'A' different from the original. That was a 'Pontiac/Oldsmobile' middle-of-the-roader that I've usually advised shunning, since it often misses final highs and lows. The rally has been too steep to enable 'mechanical' entries, but a drop to the red line would signal one nonetheless, stop 21.85. _______ UPDATE (Apr 13, 6:09 p.m.): Buyers pushed the May futures to within 0.3% of the 26.20 target, effectively fulfilling it. A pullback is likely but not certain. The next important resistance is an external peak at 27.22 from March 8, 2022, and its breach would refresh the bullish energy of the long-term charts.
Although I've identified bull-market targets as high as 72.23, it's appropriate at this time to rein in our expectations, since the pattern shown, despite its steep pitch and 45.57 target, is problematical. It is the ersatz impulse leg that is most nettlesome, since it failed on the January run-up to 41.16 to surpass a key 'external' peak at 42.19 recorded last June. That diminishes the usefulness and reliability of the pattern and its D target. Additionally, last week's high stalled at p2=42.24, but also at the D target of a minor pattern. A pullback to the red line would not present an ideal 'mechanical' buying opportunity, although a hellacious slide to x=35.39 could set up something more promising._____ UPDATE (Apr 11, 9:58 p.m.): The slight poke above an external peak a 42.19 recorded on June 2 generated a short but strong impulse leg, refreshing the bullish energy of the daily chart. Now, other than 'voodoo' resistance at 43.31, it looks like clear sailing all the way to 44.42, where resistance will be felt in the form of an external peak recorded in May.
I'll continue to use the big, bearish pattern shown in the inset, with a 'D' target at 3424, to keep things in perspective. However, it behooves us to give this presumptive bear market rally wide berth, since it is feeding off the crowd's certitude that a real rally -- i.e., one capable of hitting new record highs --could never happen with the U.S. economy imploding in slow motion. To cover all the bases, my analysis last week even allowed for the possibility of a rally to new record highs above 6000, however unlikely. Since bottoming in October, the June contract has signaled two 'mechanical' shorts at the green line (4143.19) that could have yielded total profits of as much as $100,000 on four contracts. A third short sale was signaled last week when the futures touched the green line. I expect this trade to be a winner as well, although ES could climb toward C=4382.75 just to harass bears.
A usually astute correspondent thinks my 176.52 rally projection is unlikely to be realized. We want to get this one right, since, if AAPL fails to achieve 'D', it means the bear market that went into hibernation in October is about to resume. I still think the odds favor the completion of the bullish pattern, but there are two caveats. First, the impulse leg is illegitimate and therefore unreliable, since its 'B' high failed to surpass the 157.50 peak recorded just before Halloween; and second, there is daunting resistance just above in the form of a trendline and secondary pivot (p2=168.37) that closely coincide. A bullish offset is that last week's high at 166.84 exceeded both an internal and an external peak, generating a strong impulse leg of minor degree. In sum, the picture is quite mixed, and determining trend strength will therefore require close attention to price action at corrective Hidden Pivots p and D. Stay tuned!
Three weeks' worth of gratuitous feints, thrusts and dives have yet to deliver a 'mechanical' buying opportunity at the green line, hinting that this vehicle will be on its way to D=115.32 once the dithering ends. It would take just a small push to ensure this, since there are three closely spaced peaks ranging up to December 7's 109.68 that could conceivably be exceeded with a rally of just a little more than one point. This prospect complicates the logic of those who think the dollar is in trouble, since it is not mainly dollars that our many detractors around the globe hold as IOUs, but Treasury paper whose appreciation has alleviated the pain of weak U.S. currency.
The manipulation of bitcoin's price has become almost too tedious to watch. Price action is simultaneously boring and bizarre, since bitcoin doesn't attract much interest from shorts. This is paradoxical, considering that cryptos have evolved into a purely speculative vehicle with little practical value in the world of goods, services and transactions. The 30,873 target given here previously still obtains. It will be reached not because of any increase in bullish demand, but on the vapors of cyclical mood swings that give its canny handlers a riskless opportunity to withdraw supply and let 'er waft on near-zero volume.
Anyone who has played around with ChatGPT knows that it is just dumb enough to succeed wildly. It harbors no opinions, grudges or wit, and it can talk a blue streak without saying anything interesting or exceptionable. This kind of artificial intelligence seems perfectly suited to mimicking the rote tasks that lawyers charge clients hundreds or even thousands of dollars an hour to perform. And not just churning out boilerplate, either. Put a voice-activated bot in a courtroom and, without a mote of prejudice, it will prosecute or defend whoever is in the docket by drawing on the entire, vast library of U.S. jurisprudence. Will we even need judges to decide cases or instruct juries when machine intelligence can split hairs of precedent down to inarguable singularity? These thoughts occurred to me as I reviewed a lawyer letter for which I had paid a South Florida attorney $1,000. He made a novel argument concerning why I would be suing the officers of a particular company personally rather than corporately. Their lawyer responded with two thousand words that said, basically, you can't do that, and here's why. These shysters would still be slinging legalese at each other for $450 an hour if I hadn't pulled the plug on my guy. I'd paid him $2500 as a retainer; his invoice -- including time spent tallying up the bill! -- was for $2469. A coincidence, I'm sure. The invoice was stamped 'Paid in full', but I had to remind him that he still owed me the $31 difference. Small wonder that lawyer jokes are so vicious: What's brown and black and looks good on a lawyer? A Doberman. The ABA's Turf There can be no doubt that a lawyerly version of ChatGPT will soon enable litigants to cut to the chase, and for
A spirited push higher on Friday easily exceeded the 39.52 target we've been using, setting GDXJ up for a crucial test that would be strongly impulsive if it can get past the two peaks shown (inset) without pausing for breath. The higher of them lies at 42.19, and a two-day close above it would all but ensure further progress to at least p=49.02. Because gold is in a bull market, it is appropriate at this time to show what's possible over the long term -- in this case an ambitious target at 72.23 that has never been aired here before. For the time being, though, we'll use p=49.02 as a minimum upside projection, with an eye toward low-risk 'mechanical' entries to augment long positions on the way up. _______ UPDATE (Apr 5, 9:56 p.m. EDT): Today's bull-trap thrust to 42.05 got within 0.3% of the target, so it should be considered fulfilled. If GDXJ surprises with a second-wind lunge above the high within the next 2-3 days, that would be quite bullish.
When a subscriber posted another guru's 6000 target for the S&Ps, my first thought was, oh great, how does an honest forecaster compete with a publicity seeker who billboards such an outrageously bullish target? But when I replicated the guy's chart pattern, I was forced to conclude that a moon shot to 6000 would not be so outrageous after all. A corresponding Hidden Pivot target lies at 6136, a less-than-exact number because I've used a composite chart to calculate it. A theoretical rally to 6136 has already been signaled by two feints above the green line since December. The line is about to be head-butted for a third time, and probably surpassed. If the June futures were to pop through it this time and then push above last August's peak at 4327 (which is likely if ESM23 closes for two weekly bars above X=4160), I'd infer that a test of p=4819 is no worse than an odds-on bet. That would be equal to the all-time high at 4800 recorded on January 4, 2022, and, probably, a launching pad for a blowoff to 6136. _____ UPDATE (Apr 4, 7:52 p.m. EDT): The futures came down hard after hitting the 4171.50 rally target of a textbook-obvious pattern that had been widely promoted in the trading world. Some saw it as the beginning of a landslide, and that would certainly be nice. But cooler heads will have an opportunity to prevail tomorrow, so permabears shouldn't get their hopes too high. _______ UPDATE (Apr 5, 9:50 p.m.): Bears can count on a fall to at least D=4088.00, but if this Hidden Pivot support fails, expect more slippage to 4070 or lower. Here's the chart.
Bulls and bears both held their cards close to their chests last week. The latter cannot bluff effectively or for long, however, since bullion is in a bull market. However, the question on everyone's minds is whether gold is overdue for a punitive correction of the $350 run-up since November. Price action relative to the pennant formation shown in the chart (inset) should tell us soon whether a bearish outcome is likely, but there is nothing that I can discern in the chart that argues for betting the ranch on a particular scenario. For now, brace for savage, meaningless feints. most of them lower, since the quasi-criminals responsible for gold's gratuitous swoons have sufficient control over the futures to peg their price nearly anywhere over the short term. ______ UPDATE (Apr 3, 5:37 p.m. EDT): The ass-bandits took out the lower trendline on very light volume to begin the day, then bought aggressively to drive the futures nearly to the upper trendline by midday. I've altered the pennant somewhat to keep the futures within bounds, but don't expect the thieves to pull the same stunt if the break-out is to the upside, since they won't be able to trick buyers as easily as they suckered sellers. Here's the new chart. _______ UPDATE (Apr 4, 12:13 p.m.): Gold's impaling spike through p=2016 this morning implies more upside over the near term to at least 2079.40. Here's the chart -- and yes, the pattern should work well for 'mechanical' buying on swoons. _______ UPDATE (Apr 5, 10:01 p.m.): The futures will be headed down to exactly 2018.00 straightaway if support at the 2029 midpoint Hidden Pivot fails. _______ UPDATE (Apr 6, 7:45 a.m.): Well, I guess we'll just have to see about that. June Gold cracked $2029 overnight, then reversed as it nearly always
