Yet another week of tedious slop produced no change in my bullish outlook for the intermediate- and long-term. For now, August Gold's correction is targeted on 1903.90, a 3.5% drop from last week's settlement price. Neither bears nor bulls have shown more than slight interest in bullion since early March, and both will likely be bored out of their minds before the bullish trend resumes in earnest. The first hint of this would come on a pop above 2006.20, the 'C' high of the pattern shown. Otherwise, expect the weak, downward dirge to continue. ______ UPDATE (Jun 16,): The presumably meaningless rally that ended the week triggered the fourth 'mechanical' short since May 30. The first three produced a theoretical profit of $10,000 apiece on four contracts. Here's a fresh chart that shows gold's pooch-screwing price action. _______ UPDATE (June 20, 1:58 p.m.): With gold in its wonted gold-is-garbage mode, the 1903.90 downside target is looking increasingly likely to be reached -- and precisely, given the umpteen bounces the futures have taken from p=1956.10. An arguably even more appealing pattern projecting to 1892.10 will be in play if 1903.90 is exceeded by more than $1.00 or so. I say 'more appealing' because of the pert little alternative one-off 'A' at 2087 recorded on May 4.
The rally from May 26's 22.78 low would become an enticing 'mechanical' short if it touches the green line (x=25.19), as seems likely. Initial risk would be a little more than $4000 per contract, so the trade is recommended only to those of you who know how to cut that by at least 90% using a 'camouflage' trigger. If there is sufficient interest in the chat room, I will provide guidance in real time. We would be shooting not for a drop to 'D', but for a single-level profit predicated on exiting at p=23.946. A fall to D=21.46 would still be a theoretical possibility, however. ______ UPDATE (Jun 16): Yet another week of excruciating tedium told us nothing we didn't know a month ago. Even the crime syndicate that manipulates bullion futures seems too bored to bother. The analysis above can stand as given.
The Biden Administration can count on Wall Street to celebrate meaningless economic data and bogus GDP growth with steep rallies, even as the visible economy continues to implode. It will become increasingly difficult to ignore signs of impending collapse, however, as anyone who lives in San Francisco could tell you. The city's growing wretchedness is arguably no worse than what you would find in Chicago, Portland, Seattle or L.A., but it seems more appalling because San Francisco, with its cable cars, spectacular scenic vistas, hilly, charming neighborhoods and the world's most beautiful bridge, has always been regarded as a special place. In no song will anyone ever leave his heart in Minneapolis, Boston, Milwaukee or Miami. Labor Market Hubris New York is no better off, with even mighty BlackRock struggling to turn a profit on commercial real estate. Rents are higher than ever, but they haven't kept up with an even steeper rise in the cost of servicing property loans. Nor will they, for the U.S. economy is on the down slope of an inflation/deflation Mt. Everest, so hopelessly burdened by debt as to lie beyond the quack nostrums of Fed policy, let alone capable of regenerating itself with a robust revival. Consumers appear to be tapped out, tech firms are still laying off by the thousands, small businesses are closing at an appalling rate, and the Mother of All Yield-Curve Inversions is predicting a commensurately extreme recession, Against all these troubles, the spinmeisters would juxtapose the supposed creation of 339,000 jobs in May. Armed with this dubious evidence of economic growth, officialdom is able to speak of a "strong" labor market with a straight face. However, 201,00 of the jobs, or 60%, were in government, health, education, leisure and hospitality, notes economist David Stockman. With growth mainly in low
The post-covid bull market begun in the final quarter of 2020 is running out of room, at least on the daily chart. The 184.86 target shown, a Hidden Pivot resistance, is not the highest that can be projected, but it still looks capable of restraining the charge, if only for a short while. Sliding 'A' down to the 118.70 low recorded on March 4, 2021, produces an alternative high at 190.90, but we'll wait to see how buyers handle D=184.86 before we raise our sights. To stretch your bullish imagination, but also to be on record with a seemingly outrageous forecast, let me introduce a 253.96 target with this weekly graph. We'll be better able to make book if the stock exceeds 184.96 and stalls at the 189.07 midpoint. That would make 253.96 more plausible as an objective, especially if AAPL stabs through p=189.07 and closes above it the same week. ______ UPDATE (Jun 5, 2:35 p.m.): AAPL has plummeted from a spike high at 184.95 that missed my target (boldfaced above in green) by nine cents. Because the stock is the most important stock-market bellwether of them all -- "the only stock that matters" -- we should be alert to the possibility that the broad averages have put in a major top today. Addendum, 6:49 p.m.: I doubt it, especially since the selling was triggered by 'news' that was bound to affect mainly rubes, yokels, and riff-raff who trade the stock, but that's no reason to take our eyes off a chart that is incapable of lying or even misleading._______ UPDATE (Jun 7, 5:52 p.m.): Monday's spike on 'goggle news' has left AAPL top-heavy. This chart suggests the stock will need to come down into the range 170-175 range to consolidate for the next thrust toward $200.
The bullish stampede stalled briefly at the 4287.75 target signaled in early May, but the close above signaled more upside over the near term to at least 4331.50, a Hidden Pivot resistance shown in the chart that has been more than two months in coming. There are some additional point 'A' lows that could be used to project an even higher target, but I have not used them because the 'B' high did not exceed any prior peaks. That doesn't necessarily mean the futures can't surpass 4331.50, only that a target above cannot be considered precisely reliable. Please note that a swoon touching either the red or green line, however unlikely, would generate an appealing 'mechanical' buy. ______ UPDATE (Jun 5, 6:43 p.m.): The S&Ps sympathetically weakened when AAPL plunged today, but this seemed scant reason for concern. It happened because too many amateur traders were expecting the long-awaited unveiling of Apple's ridiculously overpriced VR goggles to send the stock soaring. It did, albeit briefly and with help from the usual short-covering panic overnight. However, the subsequent dive was merely classic 'buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news' price action, probably signifying nothing. We'll monitor AAPL closely nonetheless, since the selloff began from a high just nine cents from the 184.86 rally target I'd drum-rolled in the AAPL tout just above. _______ UPDATE (Jun 8, 4:54 p.m.): The trendline shown in this weekly chart has been breached only slightly, but it should not have been breached at all if the rally were about to reverse. The line is authoritative because the two peaks it connects came ahead of precipitous selloffs. If the futures close above the line on Friday or trade decisively above it, that would be yet another warning to bears against fighting the rally aggressively.
Last week's bullish feint triggered a less-than-appealing 'mechanical' short at the green line (x=1980.60). The selloff into the close was bound for a retest of p=1955.10, but if this 'hidden' support fails, look for more downside to 1929.50, the secondary (p2) pivot. Bears have had trouble doing serious damage, so there's no reason to think the downtrend, a correction from May 4's 2102 high, is likely to reach the D target at 1903.90. That implies p2 should be bottom-fished, presumably with a reverse pattern of small degree (aka 'camouflage'). ______ UPDATE (Jun 5, 6:59 p.m.): We'll let gold bulls, bears and the Wharton-educated criminals who manipulate them bayonet each other bloody for a while, but by all means please nudge me in the chat room if you see easy money sitting on the table.
Silver looks likely to fall to a D target at 21.46 that's equivalent to one in gold that seems somewhat out of reach. On balance, I lean toward a bearish resolution, but we'll monitor this symbol closely in any case. A rally to the green line (x=25.19) would trigger an enticing 'mechanical' short, but because the entry risk would be more than $6000 per contract, we should plan on doing the trade with a camouflage trigger that can cut that to $600 or less. If the futures instead fall, bottom-fishing at D would be attractive, although the pattern looks too obvious to deliver a precise low at the Hidden Pivot.
As tedious and labored as the uptrend has been since this vehicle bottomed on September 30 at 25.80, it is healthy enough to suggest that the long, corrective dirge from the $66 high recorded in the summer of 2020 is over. By 'healthy' I mean that rallies are capable of generating impulse legs on the weekly chart. Most recently, for instance, buyers did so by pushing GDXJ above an internal peak and an external one at 42.13 recorded exactly a year ago. The jury is still out on whether the 'mechanical' buy we narrowly missed executing at 35.58 can bounce more than a single level without retreating below the green line. It failed by just three cents to accomplish this last week.
July Copper's breach in late May of the 3.65 midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown (see inset) is bearish and hints of a further drop to as low as D=2.95. A corrective rally to the green line (x=4.00) would set up an opportune 'mechanical' short, but failing that, the most promising swing trade we could envision on the middle horizon would be bottom-fishing at p2=3.30. If that were to occur, the energy sector would undoubtedly experience a corresponding drop that in turn would imply an easing of inflationary pressures and a positive impact on mining stocks. Please note that this is 'Doc' Copper's first appearance on the touts list in a very long time, and it is intended to supplement and confirm my analysis of crude, which is also in a secular downtrend.
This ETF proxy for long-dated T-Bonds has looked like hell for so long that its sideways slide since December has seemed like a relative vacation in purgatory. A drop below the distribution zone it has traversed during that time seems all but inevitable, however, and we should expect TLT to hit p=95.26 at a minimum. That's a midpoint Hidden Pivot support and well located to set up an opportune buy against the long-term trend. We may be able to accomplish this with entry risk held to as little as 3 or 4 ticks, so stay tuned to the chat room if you care. Be sure to check 'Notifications' on your account dashboard as well. ______ UPDATE (Jun 10): It's nothing to celebrate, at least not yet, but this glue horse created a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart last week that should be noted. The rally appears bound for p=102.60 at least, but an easy pop through the pivot would imply more upside potential over the near term to D=104.41. Both numbers should work for day traders looking to get short with 'camouflage' on the lesser charts, and 'mechanical' buys should provide easy wins as well.
