Rick Ackerman

We'll treat last week's stall-n-dive as just an annoying detour on the way to a 4907.75 rally target that still looks likely to be reached. It is odd nonetheless that sellers were unable to put this gas bag down on Friday with a concerted push toward D=4585.25 of the small 'reverse' pattern shown.  Powell had ratcheted up his tapeworm twaddle to the max earlier in the week, and although T-Bonds acted as though they actually believe the guy, stocks evidently know better.  Still, ES is in the throes of a 'Matt's Curse', having peaked almost precisely at the 4803 secondary pivot, When this happens, odds of a corrective crash through the 'C' low -- in this case 4485.75 -- supposedly rise. _______ UPDATE (Jan 10, 5:33 pm.): It took two tries, but a trade I recommended in the chat room at 10:53 got traction just ahead of today's 90-point rally. Several subscribers appeared to have jumped on it, so I tracked the position and provided detailed suggestions for managing the risk as the day wore on.  Check it out and see whether you could have followed my advice. It included the use of a 'dynamic' trailing stop, a concept explained in my running commentary.  I'd suggest moving to the sidelines for now, since the session ended with bears hanging on the ropes. 

The March contract struggled for a foothold all week and now looks likely to continue lower to at least p=152^05. A tradeable reversal at or very near this Hidden Pivot midpoint support is predictable, and bottom-fishing there will undoubtedly be easier than attempting to short the downtrend. Not that we can't try, but let's plan on using TLT for this task, and for bottom-fishing as well if preferred, since it's a cheaper way to play. In the unlikely event that sellers crush the red line, the secondary pivot (p2) at 144^21 would be in play. _______  UPDATE (Jan 11, 8:33 p.m.): The pattern shown here is too gnarly not to work in every possible way, so don't hesitate to try tightly stopped bottom-fishing if the futures swoon to x=155^20. Sideways action this evening appears to be a consolidation for a push to D=156^21. However high it goes, the rally will be corrective. ______ UPDATE (Jan 12, 5:16 p.m.): The futures fell to 155^21, missing our bid by a single tick before rallying moderately into the close. We'll just watch, since I am not recommending buying a relapse that touches the green line. _______ UPDATE (Jan 13, 8:56 p.m.): Today's spike exceeded the 156^21 target by seven ticks, enough to earn the uptrend the begrudging benefit of the doubt at least for the time being. _______ UPDATE (Jan 16, 4:21 p.m.):  So much for the benefit of the doubt. T-Bonds are way overdue for a bounce, but if last week's little dribbler is the best bulls can do, yields are going higher, and the blithe idiots who have been pumping stocks will eventually have to pay heed. _______ UPDATE (Jan 19, 10:58 p.m.): A rally to x=155^12 would trigger an appealing  'mechanical' short. This trade is only for subscribers who understand why 'x'

A 'mechanical' buy that had been two weeks in coming triggered on Friday after bouncing off the green line at 22.02 no fewer than three times. Numerous subscribers swore on a stack of Holy Bibles that they have been paying attention to my Silver touts, so I will establish a tracking position and see how it goes. I'll use a 22.10 cost basis, since Thursday's initial bounce from the green line would have been stopped out following a partial, profitable exit. The not-so-sloppy-seconds pattern we are left to trade is shown here, and it implies two contracts would have been exited at p=22.27. Cash out a third at d=22.59 and use a 22.03 stop-loss for the 25% that remains unless instructed otherwise. _______ UPDATE (Jan 10, 7:03 p.m.): The futures are closing on 22.59 this evening. Exit another 25% as suggested, but switch to an impulsive stop-loss on the 30-minute chart for the 25% that remains. This implies stopping out the trade if a presumably corrective down-leg exceeds two prior lows without correcting, At present, the stop would be at  22.36. ______ UPDATE (Jan 11, 8:41 p.m.): If you Bible-thumping supposed silver lovers followed my instructions, you are still long a single contract (or 25% of the original position), with a realized gain of $4150 and another $3400 of unrealized.  Use a 22.48 stop-loss for what remains, o-c-o with a closing offer at 23.20. An exit there would yield a total profit of around $9100. _______ UPDATE (Jan 12, 1:24 p.m.): Today's strong upthrust has hit 23.22, so we are officially out of the position with a theoretical profit of $9100.  The rally impaled the midpoint pivot of a larger pattern with such force that we can now use D=24.01 shown in this chart as a minimum upside objective.

Since there are no actual bears trading the cryptos, we have to assume that wrenching declines such as we've seen in this vehicle over the last two months have occurred simply because its institutional sponsors have stepped away to pick their teeth and have their nails done. They may not know it, but the chart says they will begin buying again at either the 39,805 'D' target of the pattern shown, or deep in the 'discomfort zone', a tad below 38,500.  There is no equivalent pattern in ETHE, only a jerry-rigged one with a 'D' target at 23.54 (daily chart, A= 47.08 on 12/1) and a too-vague discomfort zone. _______ UPDATE (Jan 10, 6:55 p.m.):  Ahem. The 39,805 Hidden Pivot support drum-rolled above caught the nearly exact low of a $2,454 rally. This feat -- just a cheap parlor trick, as you will already know by now -- seems to have been the proverbial tree falling silently in the forest, since no one noticed, much less inquired about how to trade it. ______ UPDATE (Jan 11, 8:46 p.m.): Several subscribers professed to have leveraged the target; however, because this vehicle is not tradeable and the subscribers did not say what they used as an alternative, I have not established a tracking position.

The 'reverse' pattern shown triggered a 'mechanical' buy on Friday slightly above the green line I'd flagged at 1783.20. A subscriber who reported doing the trade didn't say how, but I'll assume a tight 'camo' set-up was used that might have triggered as low as 1783.90 (for instance: 60-minute, reverse a= 1785.40 on 1/6 at 9 a.m.). I'll recommend exiting half the position on the opening Sunday night, since gold's rallies have been balky and short-lived.  Thereupon, implement a trailing stop that would put half of any profits booked up to that point at risk. A third contract should be offered $10 higher, but check back, since that could change depending on how this vehicle opens on Sunday. ______ UPDATE (Jan 10, 7:13 a.m.): Exiting two contracts at 1796.40, Sunday evening's opening price, leaves two contracts (or 50% of the original position) with an effective cost basis of 1770.00. Offer half of what remains at 1813.30, just below the pattern's midpoint Hidden Pivot, with an o-c-o order stopping out the entire position at 1785.60. (This is an 'impulsive' stop on the 30-minute chart that references two very recent, external lows.) _______ UPDATE (Jan 11, 8:55 p.m.):  If you followed my instructions, you're sitting on realized gains of $4,300 and are still long a single contract (or 25% of the original position) with an unrealized gain of $5,000. Use an 1801.00 stop-loss for now, O-C-O with an order to exit the remainder of the position at 1839.  A 'dynamic' trailing stop can be substituted above 1828. ______ UPDATE (Jan 12, 5:23 p.m.): The dynamic stop suggested above triggered at 1825.40 after the futures topped at 1828.20.  The total profit on the position would have been around $8000. Do nothing further for now.