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The top of Friday's 39-point rally came within less than two points of the 3481.75 target I'd sent out the night before. If you got short up there as advised, set a break-even stop-loss for now and cover half if the futures pull back to 3473.00. I'll update my instruction if Sunday's opening is worse than merely weak. Alternatively, targets of a bigger, bullish pattern remain in play. They lie, respectively at p2=3478.13 and D=3571.50. Both are shown in the chart (inset) and, because of an adjustment to point 'A', are somewhat lower than the targets given here previously. ______ UPDATE (Oct 12, 6:26 p.m. ET): A strong, unpaused rally has made a potential short-term finishing stroke to D=3571.50 all but unavoidable. Short there aggressively with a tight stop-loss if you've caught a profitable ride up. _______ UPDATE (Oct 14, 6:55 p.m.): The at times maniacal upsurge of the last few weeks has in fact, and so far, curiously avoided a finishing stroke D=3571.50. This is mildly bearish on its face, but we should give bulls the benefit of the doubt, since the selling over the last couple of days has been quite subdued. This is no reason to give up hope that bears will roar before the week ends, but for now there is no reason to assume the weakness is anything more than a garden-variety retracement. Here's the picture. ______ UPDATE (Oct 15, 5:4 p.m.): Well, dear permabears, there is a growing list of reasons why you should give up hope, since you've accomplished precious little in three days. I've mentioned numerous times over the years that a trader could have reaped a fortune buying any downtrend on its third day. Further proof of this may come soon.

Gold will need a couple more days like Friday, went it shot up $41, to signal the likely end to the consolidation begun in early August from a record 2089.20. Specifically, an 'external' peak at 1983.80 recorded in mid-September must be exceeded to generate the first bullish impulse leg on the daily chart since July. The immediate potential thereafter would be to 2050.60, the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of this pattern; and eventually to D=2250.10. All of this will of course depend on the dollar, whose weakness would turn ugly, if not to say impulsive, if it starts the new week as badly as it ended the last. _______ UPDATE (Oct 14, 7:35 p.m. ET): Bulls are working MUCH harder than bears to push this vehicle around. Even after struggling for altitude over the last 30 hours, they have yet to recoup losses that the bad guys inflicted on gold in a mere 90 minutes the day before. Price action has been too tedious to monitor closely, but I will recommend nonetheless that you bottom-fish at p=1895.20 (click here for chart) with as tight a stop-loss as you can abide. An rABC set-up with a very short A-B leg  (i.e., 8 points or less) should be suitable for this purpose. If the trade gets stopped out, it would shorten the odds of a further fall to D=1872.90. _______ UPDATE (Oct 14, 10.09 p.m.): The 1895.20 pivot worked out exactly, to the tick.  Here's the chart.  If you bottom-fished there, even a one-tick stop-loss would have worked. Your profit at the moment would be about $2600 on four contracts. Exit half and manage the rest at your discretion. _______ UPDATE (Oct 15, 8:09 a.m.): A few subscribers reported jumping on the trade in the chat room and making substantial gains. I'm

December Silver performed beautifully on Friday, gaining some tough yardage at the end of the day that put it just above an 'external' peak at 25.30 recorded on September 21.  This subtle but technically significant feat, which created an impulse leg on the hourly chart, adds to the likelihood that gold will duplicate it shortly.  It also implies that the current rally will be stronger than the one which lifted the futures off a deeply oversold bottom at 21.81 recorded on September 24. Stay tuned to the chat room for trading guidance, since getting aboard a rally this steep will require deft use of a 'mechanical' set-up on a lesser chart. ______ UPDATE (Oct 13, 1:57 p.m.): So very delicately attuned to the dollar's ups and downs have silver and gold become that today's strong rally in the former has caused quotes in the latter to plunge.  This has not undone the bullish impulse leg noted above, it has merely brought bulls another all-too-familiar day of disappointment. ______ UPDATE (Oct 14, 7:47 p.m.): With a point 'B' low that is pure sausage, the downtrend shown in this chart lacks the legitimacy and authority of the one I've suggested bottom-fishing in gold. Be that as it may, Silver's ABC looks good enough for government work, implying you can try bottom-fishing anyway at p=24.08. This assumes you know how to minimize the entry risk with a small-interval rABC set-up or some method or your own. ______ UPDATE (Oct 15, 9:13 a.m.): The trade worked almost as well as the one suggested in December Gold, producing a theoretical gain of as much as $1100 per contract overnight. The futures have since relapsed and appear bound for the pattern's 23.43 'D' target. _______ UPDATE (Oct 15, 5:56 p.m.): Although the futures fell overnight, a 28-cent

The dollar's retracement from a 94.74 high recorded two weeks ago seemed healthy and normal until Friday's dive. Just a little more weakness on Monday or Tuesday would generate a bearish impulse on the daily chart if it penetrates the 92.70 low shown in the chart.  Although this would not necessarily signal the start of a major new downtrend, it would imply that it could take time -- perhaps 6-10 weeks or even longer -- for the dollar to carve out a bottom capable of supporting the moon shot that eventually is coming. I see this as inevitable because a strong dollar is the one thing that almost no one wants. It would deaden stimulus, kill the profits of U.S. multinationals and catalyze the start of a ruinously deflationary squeeze on debtors. _______ UPDATE (Oct 13, 2:08 p.m.): Because the dollar has been falling for nearly three weeks, and because it has reversed from a too-obvious spot just above mid-September's consolidation lows, we'll be careful about turning bullish prematurely. Let's stipulate that the rally continue unpaused to at least 94.04 before we switch our bias. That would put p2=94.50 in play (60-minute, A=92.75 on 9/21), with additional potential to D=95.00 over the next 4-6 days. Here's the chart.

The two-day rally that ended the week had deceptive power, exceeding an 'internal' peak and two daunting 'externals' without drawing any deep breaths. It made our minimum upside target at p2=289.41 a shoe-in to be reached and shortened the odds of a further push to D=297.45. We're unlikely to see a pullback to p if DIA hits the secondary pivot at 289.41, but it would make for an enticing 'mechanical' buy if it occurs.  However, it should be noted that exceeding the midpoint pivot took a long running start to achieve, and that's why we'll need to be alert to a possible trend failure above p2. _______ UPDATE (Oct 12, 6:31): Today's top just a millimeter from the 289.41 target was worth shorting with a tight stop-loss, as I noted in the chat room an hour before the bell. I'll establishing a tracking position if I hear from at least two subscribers who jumped on this one. For now, though, with DIA dormant a full point below the target, use a break-even stop-loss. _______ UPDATE (Oct 14, 7:56 p.m.): Feedback on the short was sketchy, so I haven't established a tracking position. You're on your own if you did the trade, but it is sufficiently profitable that you should have taken a partial gain by now. _______ UPDATE (Oct 15, 6:00 p.m.): If the upward momentum of today's reversal continues and DIA closes strong, it would imply that the 297.45 billboarded above will be reached.

With the election campaign headed down the stretch, investors are still betting Trump will win. The Dow Industrials have risen to within striking distance of February's 29,568 record. Does anyone think this could have occurred if Biden were a shoe-in, as the pollsters would have us believe? More likely is that the Dow would be trading 5000 points lower, on its way to 10,000, if the stock market caught even a whiff of a possible Biden/Harris victory. A few pundits have asserted that Biden is Wall Street's choice. This claim is so outrageous that no one in America, including Trump's foes, could possibly believe it.  It holds up only if you think Biden's path to the White house is certain. Then it would be logical to infer the stock market is not merely comfortable with this outcome, but exuberant about it. In pushing the Wall Street-for-Biden narrative, the mainstream media have wishfully channeled Joseph Goebbels: Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth. Not quite, though, since there is Fox news commentator Tucker Carlson to firmly set the record straight. His nightly show is not only the most-watched news program, it is the most-watched program in cable television. Americans Have Eyes Concerning the pollsters, we wonder whom they've been calling. Not us, for sure, nor anyone we know. But we do have more than a few left-leaning friends, including some Berkeley liberals, who will be surreptitiously voting for the incumbent. There are also nearly a half-million blacks, gays, trannies and Latinos who have left video testimonials to Trump on Facebook as part of the #WalkAway Campaign. But the vast majority of Trump supporters, including a significant number of swing voters who can't stand Trump personally, will be pulling the GOP lever on November 3 simply because they watch

AAPL looks like it will need to pull back to get a running start at $120, where supply is certain to be plentiful.  Freaky Friday could provide an opportunity to do it the easy way - i.e., with short-covering on any kind of news that could be construed as bullish. But it's hard to imagine what that news might be, given that Biden has been climbing in the polls and stimulus talks are in a muddle. Fed chief  Powell could venture forth and cough into a microphone, but he seems to save his bullets for moments when investors and the news media are stirred up to begin with.  The Russell 2000 is where the excitement has been lately, alas. You could no more build an historic rally on this than you could a fabulous dinner featuring mashed potatoes, salisbury steak and jello.

Thursday's rally was not nearly strong enough to achieve escape velocity from a consolidation pattern the futures had traced out over the last week.  If DaBoyz are unable to goose the stock higher as the week draws to a close, look for a pullback to start Sunday night.  AAPL's punk performance has kept the lunatic stocks relatively subdued, and the iPhone maker's shares looks like they are about to roll over. If so, that will bring the Nasdaq 100 down hard, perhaps to test support at C=11,197 of the bullish pattern shown in the chart. ______ UPDATE (Oct 12, 6:43 p.m.): The maniacs who power this hoax were so revved up yesterday, and the p2 rally target at 12,271 so obvious, that I can only counsel caution when the futures get there. Short the pivot if you are familiar with 'reverse ABC' set-ups and can handle one on the 3-minute chart, or if you've made a few bucks on the way up.  If bulls impale p2, and especially if they close above it for two straight days, consider D=12,808 a done deal. ______ UPDATE (Oct 13, 2:26 p.m.): The advice sent out last night proved prescient with respect to the rally's failure, but getting short as I'd suggested would have been challenging. Here's why: The futures missed touching p2 by a whisker, and although this would not have prevented one from initiating the trade with an rABC set-up, the entry trigger occurred more than two hours before the opening bell. Oh well. Here's the graph. The futures look like they have farther to fall. _______ UPDATE (Oct 14, 8:08 p.m.): Here's an 11,781 downside target you can use if sellers dominate for a third straight day. Your clue of more weakness to come would follow a decisive penetration of p=11,907.

Let's see if The Bull Market That Wouldn't Die can shrug this one off. Trump postponed stimulus talks until at least after the election, causing a 600-point reversal in the Dow Industrials. With no stimulus in sight, all of those would-be dollars from the sky won't get spent by holiday shoppers.  They are usually unstoppable themselves, although 2020 has seemed likely to produce, from the standpoint of retailers, a k-shaped Christmas. That's when pandemic-proof upper-middle-class shoppers go all-in on Patek Philippe wristwatches and goose-down comforters while most Americans have to settle for Kohl's gift cards. If stocks plunge in October, that could flatten the shopping curve somewhat, ringing in the New Year with an L-shaped recovery. _______ UPDATE (Oct 7, 11:41 p.m.): I am on the road until late Thursday but will be monitoring chat room discussion as time permits.